RADIO
It is Wednesday, September 7th, 2022. We are under a month left in the baseball season. While some are going into football mode, I've got your back and am staying in baseball mode until the season is over! There are 17 games on this slate with some double headers going on. If you are looking to get involved in some MLB action, this time of year is one of my favorites and it isn't too late!
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
O/U: 7| Moneyline: TAM -165
BOS: Nick Pivetta| TAM: Jeffrey Springs
The thing I ask myself is why is this game at just seven runs? If you don't want to read the analysis, just go ahead and bet the OVER 7 runs at +100.
But seriously though? Seven runs?
Nick Pivetta has a 4.37 ERA and a 4.20 xFIP. He is what he is: average at best. Jeffrey Springs has a 2.62 ERA but his xFIP is 3.18. Pretty good, solid, but not elite or anything like that. He's maybe the fourth or fifth-best pitcher pitching today.
Offensively, the Red Sox hit lefties better than average with a 112 wRC+, a .161 ISO, and a .333 OBP. Yes, this is a good lefty but many of the hitters in that lineup have good splits. Tampa Bay is an average offense; they are near the middle of the league in OBP, wRC+, and ISO against right-handed pitching.
Seven runs? Are we sure this game will be under seven runs, though?
With the bullpens, Boston has the 10th-highest bullpen xFIP at 4.08. They have the fifth-highest bullpen ERA at 4.60. That's Pittsburgh Pirates territory they are in. It's a disaster. Tampa Bay has the eighth-best bullpen ERA but their bullpen xFIP of 3.85 is middle of the league.
At +100, I have to go over the total. Nick Pivetta could get blown up. The Boston bullpen could get blown up. Jeffrey Springs could have an off night and Boston could put up a few runs. Thinking this game could be 5-3 or more isn't that crazy to me. Maybe I'm wrong and we'll laugh about it tomorrow. But at these odds, I gotta go with it.
Pick: Boston OVER 7.0 Runs (+100), BetMGM Sportsbook 0.5 Units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: NYY -155
MIN: Louie Varland| NYY: Domingo German
This is another head-scratching total run line for me. Seven runs yet again, in an afternoon game at Yankee Stadium with a Louie Varland making his MLB debut? What?
First off, as a Minnesota Twins fan, I have been scarred by the Yankees. I assume the Yankees will score like eight runs per game just on their own, regardless of how good the pitcher on the mound for the Twins might be. It stinks but that's just the way it feels.
In all seriousness though, Louis Varland has 21.1 career innings in Triple-A. At that level, he had a 1.69 ERA and a 3.37 xFIP. Most of his pitching was at the Double-A level this season with 105 innings pitched. There, he had a 3.34 ERA and a 4.31 xFIP.
Call me crazy but I definitely have concern that the 4.31 xFIP pitcher in Double-A could get teed off on against the Yankees today.
For New York, Domingo German could have a tough day too. He currently has a nice-looking 3.12 ERA but his xFIP is 4.62 and his SIERA is 4.58. It may not happen today but he should see some regression to those stats. Seven runs are way too low for this pitching matchup.
I would wait until lineups are posted, as this game is Game 1 of a doubleheader and both teams could rest players. If the lineups look especially weak for this game, I'd pass on it.
Pick: OVER 7 Runs (+120), Caesar's Sportsbook, 0.5 Units.
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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