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Hey there, RotoBallers, it's Thunder Dan and I am back with some of my favorite MLB bets for Thursday, September 8th, 2022. It's a small slate of games with only six on the schedule today and a lot of folks will be firmly focused on the opening night of NFL football. But I haven't missed a day of wagering on baseball games yet and that's not about to start today.
This article will usually be mainly focused on sides and totals, if you want my daily strikeout projections and favorite prop bets you should check out my FREE betting newsletter on substack here.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: PHI -135
MIA: Sandy Alcantara| PHI: Kyle Gibson
This is a tough game to handicap, but we have so few choices on this slate and I am going to roll with a bet type that has proven to pay off in the past. It's a simple concept really - anytime we get the NY CY YOUNG Sandy Alcantara as an underdog, we have to consider betting on the Marlins' first five innings. That's especially true when Miami draws a back-end starter from their opponent and that's exactly the situation here with Kyle Gibson being the 4th starter for Philly.
Now Sandy has had a few rough outings lately, but those both came against the Dodgers and Braves - two of the best offenses in baseball. The Phillies offense, meanwhile, has been pretty quiet lately. Since that 18-run outburst in Arizona, they've scored just three runs per game over their last five. They were swept by the Giants last week and have barely scraped by Miami by one run in each of the first two games in this series.
In fact, both games were tied 1-1 after five innings and if that happens today, our best is a push and we get our money back. If the Marlins can get an early lead, then we double our money at these odds. The Marlins bullpen is not to be trusted, so let's roll with the F5 moneyline here and just count on a big bounce-back start from Alcantara.
Pick: Miami F5 ML (+100), DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Chicago White Sox @ Oakland Athletics
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: CHI -190
CHI: Dylan Cease | OAK: JP Sears
Speaking on Cy Young candidates, if it weren't for the amazing season that Justin Verlander has turned in coming off a major injury, Dylan Cease would likely be the AL Cy Young winner since Shane McClanahan got injured and looks unlikely to pitch down the stretch.
Cease has been simply incredible this year and is coming off a CGSO against the Twins in which he was only out away from a no-hitter. The last time he faced Oakland, he spun six innings of one-run baseball with seven strikeouts. He's at the top of his game right now and gets a match-up here with a bottom-5 offense in MLB.
Oakland is rolling with JP Sears, who came over from the Yankees in the Montas trade. While Sears has been pretty solid as a starter this season and comes in with a 5-1 record and 2.37 ERA, his 4.50 xFIP suggests that he can't keep that up for much longer. The White Sox lineup is loaded with right-handed hitters and they've perked up a bit lately, taking two of three games from Seattle, Minnesota, and Kansas City in their last three series.
The White Sox have caused me a lot of pain this year, but I'm not holding grudges. I think the smart money is on Chicago here and I think they can cover the run line with another big outing from Cease. These games in September are all must-win games now for the Chi-Sox if they have playoff aspirations, they need to pile up wins here to be in contention.
Pick: CHI -1.5 (-110), DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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