RADIO
The last two tickets to the playoffs were punched last night as the Hawks overcame a big Cavs lead in the second half to secure their bid (and cause me pain), while the Pelicans were able to pull out a big win over the Clippers, who have to be frustrated knowing that if Paul George had played they'd likely have been able to win and stay alive.
Three series from the Western Conference will be played on Saturday while the Raptors and Sixers square off in the only first-round matchup in the Eastern Conference. I'm going to briefly break down each series and give a few overall series picks in addition to picks that are specific to just the games that will be played on Saturday.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 8-10
- Against the Spread 3-3
- Over/Under 1-2
- Player Props 4-5
The Play-In Tourney ended with my first losing slate last night, but I'm geared up for these games today and will keeping the daily picks record here. I will show my series picks record separately after the end of the first round.
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NBA Betting Picks and Series Previews
Utah Jazz (-5) @ Dallas Mavericks (210 total)
The big news here is that Luka Doncic will miss game one of these series, which explains why the visiting Jazz have been installed as five-point favorites. The Mavs are a team that should never be underestimated and they've made a believer out of me this year after I was skeptical to begin the season as to whether or not they could compete with Luka, Porzingis, and a bunch of role players. Well, Porzingis is gone and they actually played better without him. Spencer Dinwiddie came in and solidified their second unit, forming a formidable 1-2 punch with Jalen Brunson as the co-Robins to Luka's Batman.
After the year they had in 2021, I thought this was a disappointing year for the Jazz overall. That might sound crazy as they finished 16 games over .500, but this is a team that dominated last year and looked like contenders with the top seed in the West before falling to the Clippers in round 2 and getting bumped for the second straight year in the second round.
Utah has the same core intact from last year and has proven they can win around 50 games a year in the regular season, but do they have enough to make a run in the playoffs? Too often it all falls on Donovan Mitchell to be the guy who carries this team and while I love his game, he's simply not the caliber of superstar to carry a team to a championship in my opinion.
The Jazz are good in every aspect of the game, but they are far from dominant on defense like they had been in years past. Dallas is actually the better defensive team of the two. They split the season series 2-2 this year but we had a few of those games where the Jazz weren't healthy either.
If Luka misses only one game, I think Dallas still has a shot in this series. The Jazz are likely to win game one, however, but can they cover five points? Believe it or not, the Mavs had a better net rating without Luka than with him on the year (only a 17-game sample). That doesn't mean they are better without him by any means, but it does mean they have plenty of experience playing without him and have proven they can win or hang with good teams in that situation.
I'm taking the Mavs with the points at home in game one, and I like Dallas's chances of pushing this series to seven games if they get Luka back for game 2. Unfortunately, the only series prop you can bet right now is Utah or Dallas to win the series and I have no interest in betting Utah at -300 or Dallas at +230 without knowing a timetable for Luka's return. So I will make a series prediction, but no series bet just yet.
The Pick: Mavericks +5 (-110 DK)
Series Prediction: Utah in 7 (if Luka is able to return at some point, I'd say 5 or 6 games otherwise)
Minnesota Timberwolves (+7) @ Memphis Grizzlies (234 total)
The Timberwolves are riding high after beating the Clippers to get the #7 seed, but their prize in doing so is having to face the Memphis Grizzlies who will have their star (and likely the most improved player award winner) Ja Morant back in the lineup.
Much has been made of the T-Wolves going a bit overboard with their celebration on Tuesday night, but that's just silly. They're a young team that has turned the corner and brought a failing franchise back to relevancy so let's allow them to enjoy it for a few nights, shall we?
The sobering reality is that they are about to run into a buzz saw. The Grizzlies are one of my favorite teams to watch in the NBA and I've been beating the drum for them to be considered serious contenders in the West this season. Last year they got a little taste of playoff action but were dumped by the Jazz in the first round 4-1. This version of the Grizzlies is better in nearly every aspect of the game. They brought in Steven Adams for a more physical presence in the paint and he adds a certain grit and toughness with his play. Jaren Jackson Jr. is another year better and starting to look like a potential superstar (if he can stop fouling and clean up the shot selection). Desmond Bane emerged as one of the best perimeter defenders and 3-point shooters in the game. And the Grizzlies' bench is as deep as anyone in the league with players like De'Anthony Melton, Tyus Jones, and Brandon Clarke who could all be starting elsewhere.
I love what Minnesota did this year and they have shown some serious offensive prowess with the emergence of Anthony Edwards as a legit scorer to compliment Karl Anthony-Towns. But their defense is still highly suspect. And that's where Memphis has a big advantage in this series. They can defend every position and have the edge in bench play and coaching (Taylor Jenkins should be the coach of the year in my opinion).
I like the Grizzlies to show up big in game one and set the precedent for this series by covering. A seven-point spread seems like a lot, but this team is rested, healthy, and motivated to make a deep run. Perhaps we get an emotional hangover from the T-Wolves, too, which makes me think that Memphis could run them out of the building here in the opener.
I'll take Memphis -1.5 games in the series, too, I think they start out 2-0 at home and steal a game on the road at some point to finish out the series in six. This Memphis team is legit. I bet them to win the West a while ago at 12 to 1 and you can still get them at +475 to win the West on DraftKings (although I won't officially endorse that bet on this card).
The Picks: Grizzlies -7 (-110 DK), Memphis -1.5 games (series spread) (-135 DK)
Series Prediction: Grizzlies 4-2
Toronto Raptors (+4.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers (215.5 total)
Who's ready for an upset? Am I really about to pick against James Harden and Joel Embiid and predict they lose in the first round? I mean, what fun is it (and how profitable, really) to pick favorites all the time?
Vegas agrees that this is potentially the closest first-round series as the Sixers are only -180 to win the series (second-worst odds of any favorite after Boston who is -130). The Raptors have shown they can beat Philadelphia, winning the season series 3-1, but of course that matters nothing without context and yes, one of those wins came earlier in the season when Embiid was out and long before the Sixers acquired James Harden. But the last two meetings that Toronto has won, the Sixers have been at full strength, so take that for what it's worth.
But Philadelphia just hasn't impressed like many thought they would have after acquiring Harden. They didn't really separate themselves from the rest of the conference and had to battle right down to the final weekend to hang onto the #3 seed. I'm not sure they've had enough to play together and really gel as a unit and that type of chemistry (that we see in Phoenix, Memphis, Miami) really can't be quantified but also can't be discounted.
Toronto is peaking at just the right time to make this a series. They've been a top-5 team over the last month of the season and have continued to win despite injuries that have slowed Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. While the Sixers have homecourt advantage, it's important to point out that their starting swingman (and best defensive player) Matisse Thybulle won't be able to play any games in Toronto due to being unvaccinated. That's a bigger deal than most will realize and I really think it helps the Raptors win some of those games at home.
They'll have to steal one on the road to win the series, however, and the earlier in the series they do that, the better. I think it could happen in game one, but I'm not putting that ML bet on the card just yet. I'll happily take the 4.5 points though and I added both Raptors +1.5 and Raptors to win the series here, too. If they push it seven games, we hit the series spread bet, and then it's all house money if they pull off the upset.
The Picks: Raptors +4.5 (-110 DK), Raptors +1.5 games in series (-155 DK), Raptors to win series (+150 DK)
Series Prediction: Raptors in 7 games!
Denver Nuggets (+6.5) @ Golden State Warriors (222.5 total)
This is going to be yet another fantastic first-round series. The Warriors are getting their best player back just in time as Steph Curry has been cleared to suit up for game one. Meanwhile, the Nuggets got some bad news this week when Jamal Murray was ruled out for at least this series and it appears Michael Porter Jr. isn't all that likely to return for the playoffs either.
However, the Nuggets still have the MVP (yes, it's going to happen) in Nikola Jokic and that counts for something. If this series was happening three months ago, I would have taken the Warriors without a doubt. In the first half of the year, they looked unbeatable and were right there with Phoenix as the best team in the NBA. But the second half of the year was disjointed for Golden State with Draymond missing a huge chunk of time, Klay Thompson returning, and then Steph Curry going down for a month. This will be the first time we see the splash brothers and Draymond on the court together in...well, it's been a while.
I've learned never to count out the Nuggets. Jokic makes everyone else better. They're well-coached and play within themselves. Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, Monte Morris, Jeff Green, Bones Hyland - none of these guys are star players, but they are all better than most people realize and they play well together. DeMarcus Cousins has been awesome off the bench in his role with the second unit and Denver has the depth to be able to match the strong play of Golden State's second unit.
The Nuggets took three of four games this season off Golden State and I think they can push them to seven games in this series. And if I think that happens, then I'm definitely going to take them to win at +210, too, why not?
The Picks: Nuggets +6.5, Nuggets +1.5 series spread, Nuggets to win series +210
Series Prediction: Nuggets in 7 games!
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Jaren Jackson Jr. over 21.5 points/rebounds (-120 DK) - JJJ averaged 17 and 7 in four meetings with the Wolves this season and hit this number in three of those four games. In the one game he went under he played only 25 minutes and foul trouble is always a concern with him. But if he plays 30+ minutes tonight, I think he will have a solid game and the return of Ja Morant will be a good thing for the continuity on offense and better shot selection for him. Hit his blocks or steals/blocks props, too, if you want but there is massive juice on them right now. I love the Grizzlies' props and JJJ's just stands out as one of the softest.
Fred VanVleet over 28.5 PRA (-115 DK) - FVV looks like he's ready to go for the series opener after having sat the last three games of the regular season. While Pascal Siakam was arguably the most important Raptor down the stretch, FVV is still the little engine that drives this team and is a guy who can stuff the stat sheet even if his shot isn't falling. We know Nick Nurse has no problem letting his starters play 40+ minutes in big games, so I think this number is pretty easily attainable with VanVleet's per-minute production (I have him projected at nearly 34 PRA). He had a huge 32-6-7 line in his only game against Philly this season, but that was without Siakam in the lineup and no Embiid on the other side.
Spencer Dinwiddie over 31.5 PRA (-125 DK) - Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson are going to have to pick up the slack in a big way with Luka Doncic out for game one of their series. But Dinwiddie is a really underrated player who can certainly do just that. In the two games that Luka sat since Dinwiddie arrived in Dallas, Spencer posted 36 and 45 PRA. I expect one of him and Brunson to be on the floor at all times and for them to both be out there for 35 minutes as the main offensive catalysts on this team.
Draymond Green over 15.5 rebounds/assists (-125 DK) - Draymond has looked healthy since returning from a long injury and he gets his main man Steph Curry back in the lineup today. I think we see his minutes increased to 30-32 today and that should be enough for him to grab enough boards and dish out enough assists to cross the finish line. In his last game against Denver, he grabbed 12 boards and handed out 19 assists in 33 minutes! Golden State will need him to be active on the boards and on defense to try to slow down Jokic.
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NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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