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The first round of the NBA Playoffs has come and gone and we had no surprises as the top-seeded teams all won and we didn't even see a game seven in a single series. Boston was the only team to sweep, while the Bucks, Heat, and Warriors all finished off their opponents in five games.
We should get two games a night now for the next four nights, and I'll do my best to keep these picks going through round two as often as I can. I'll even throw my series prediction in there today and tomorrow as well. These four series should be great and I think we are going to get at least one, if not two of them to go seven games!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 51-53
- Against the Spread 21-17
- Over/Under 8-8
- Player Props 22-28
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NBA Betting Picks for 5/1
Milwaukee Bucks (+4.5) @ Boston Celtics (217.5 total)
The Celtics needed a buzzer-beater to win Game One of their opening-round series against the Nets, but then they steamrolled them in the next three games and have some serious momentum coming into this series. They are by far the one higher-seeded team that could really be in trouble here as they have to take on the defending champion Bucks.
We found out that Khris Middleton isn't likely to return for this series, which certainly dings the Bucks a little. But no Middleton didn't slow them down one bit in their first series against the Bulls as they won games three, four, and five convincingly without him. Middleton is a big part of what this Milwaukee team does, but he's arguably been less important this season than in prior years. That's not a knock on Khris, it's more of a compliment to the other role players on this Milwaukee team.
Both Grayson Allen and Bobby Portis have stepped up in a big way - Portis as the starter and Allen as the featured scorer with the second unit. Jrue Holiday takes his game to another level with Holiday out and Giannis is...well, he's still the best player in the world, right?
I was touting Boston over Brooklyn for that entire series and the Celtics definitely won us some money along the way. But I still don't have them rated as highly as I have the Bucks, even without Middleton. The defending champs coming in here as 4.5-point underdogs is a little silly and reeks of recency bias. While what Boston did was very impressive, I think we also need to acknowledge how badly overrated that Nets team they beat was, too. The Bucks were barely tested by Chicago, too, if we are being fair.
These teams split the season series 2-2, but Milwaukee won the two most recent matchups. This should be an epic game and series, and winning Game One would be huge for either side to try to get a leg up in this series. I like Milwaukee to come in and win this first game and set the precedent for this series. Giannis is going to be hard to stop and his supporting cast is playing really well. I don't think the Celtics can match them blow for blow, shot for shot each night, and I like the Bucks to take this series in six games, too. Sticking with Game One for now, I'm betting the Bucks with the points and a half unit on them straight up, too.
The Picks: Bucks +4.5 (-110), Bucks ML (+165)
Golden State Warriors (-2) @ Memphis Grizzlies (220.5 total)
I am so freaking pumped for this series! The Warriors looked incredible in their opening series, dropping the MVP Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets in five games and playing some high-level basketball. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies really had to scrap and claw their way to a 4-2 series victory over Minnesota. That doesn't mean that I don't think Memphis can win this series, because they can. But once again, the lower seed in this series is also the better, more complete team and has the best player in the series (Steph Curry).
I just love the way that both these teams play. The Warriors' offense is a thing of beauty when they get the ball moving and the emergence of Jordan Poole this season has given them a true 1-2-3 punch of scoring with Steph and Klay. Andrew Wiggins does his thing on the wing, too, while Draymond Green continues to be one of the best Swiss Army Knife players in the game. GSW is deeper than ever before, with Otto Porter Jr., Nemanja Bjelica, and Andre Iguodala coming off the bench.
But don't sleep on Ja Morant. He's so much fun to watch and has proven this season that he's one of the brightest rising stars in the league. He's going to keep this Memphis team in this series and along with Desmond Bane and Brandon Clarke, the Grizzlies have the type of firepower to keep up with Golden State's high-powered offense.
I'm going to side with the Warriors here in the series opener. They're rested up while the Grizzlies were the last team to finish up their series in Round One. This game should come down to the wire, but I like Golden State's ability to close out games and therefore I think they cover and take a 1-0 series lead.
The Grizzlies are a good young team and they're not going to go quietly. They did beat this Golden State team three out of four times this season, but we also didn't see GSW at full strength for a large chunk of the season, too. I like them to win two, maybe even three games in this series. I'll say "Warriors in seven" as my final prediction for the series, as my head is overruling my heart, who wishes we'd see Memphis pull it out.
For Game One, I'm on the over, too, as you can see my model has it going way over the total. Remember, I'm using data from Round One and not the regular season. Both teams faced defenses that allowed a lot of points, so their offensive output might be skewed a bit, but I like the chances of this series being relatively fast-paced and I think both offenses are going to be hard to stop. I'm slamming the over and I predict that we probably don't see another game in this series with this low of a total.
The Pick: Warriors -2 (-110), OVER 220.5 Total Points (-110)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Grayson Allen over 2.5 3PM (+140): Allen was simply on fire from deep over the last three games of the Chicago series, sinking 14-20 from deep (70%). It's clear he's going to be very involved in the offense going forward without Middleton and getting him at plus money to hit threes feels like great value.
Ja Morant over 7.5 rebounds (-110): Ja was doing work on the boards against Memphis, as he had eight or more in the last five games of the series. He's active on the glass and I think he'll have a chance to rack up boards in this series, too, with it trending towards being another fast-paced game environment with a lot of three-point attempts going up by his team and opponent that create long rebounds.
Desmond Bane over 3.5 3PM (-120): I love this dude's game, can I just say that? And those guns - he looks like he's doing curls with the same bar that these other NBA players use for their bench press. Anyway, he's jacked - we get it. But he's also jacking up threes in large quantities, too, and is a damn good shooter from deep. He averaged 4.8 made threes in the Round One series and is going to need to keep shooting a ton in this one as the second option to Morant in this offense.
Giannis Antetokounmpo over 12.5 rebounds (-145): This one is a bit juiced, but Giannis averaged nearly 12 boards per game in the regular season and then pulled down 13.4 boards per game in the Chicago series. He's going to have to play nearly 40 minutes a game to get his team past this tough Celtics squad, which puts his rebound projection well up over 13.
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