RADIO
Day one of the second round of the NBA Playoffs is in the books and got both of the outcomes we were hoping for as the Bucks stomped the Celtics as underdogs, winning us our spread and ML bet while the Warriors were able to hang on to beat Memphis in a nail-biter. It turns out, however, that Klay Thompson couldn't sink at least one free throw on the next to last possession and the Warriors were unable to cover the two-point spread. It was still a good day with the bets as player props went 3-1 and the Warriors-Grizzlies game went over its total as we thought it would.
I am finally back up over .500 for the postseason, huzzah! Today's games feel a bit trickier to pick if I am being honest because we have two solid home favorites and two spreads that are wider than yesterday's. The Sixers travel to Miami for the first game and will be without Joel Embiid, which is the biggest news to know for this slate. In the late game, Devin Booker was able to return in game six of the Suns' opening series and both of those teams should be healthy and ready to go, though Booker's effectiveness could still be in question as he only scored 13 points and attempted 12 shots in 32 minutes in that game.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 57-55
- Against the Spread 23-18
- Over/Under 9-8
- Player Props 25-29
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NBA Betting Picks for 5/2
Philadelphia 76ers (+7.5) @ Miami Heat (208.5 total)
So let it be known that I live in Pennsylvania, only a few hours from the City of Brotherly Love. I am not a Sixers fan, but I have many friends and some family members who are. I certainly don't actively root against them, so it brings me no joy when I say this.
Without Embiid, the Sixers are dead in the water. It really sucks that he's going to miss this game and it sounds as if he will almost certainly miss Game Two, also. I ran all the numbers this morning, hoping to find some glimmer of hope that perhaps Philly was better than anyone thought without Embiid. On offense? Nope. On defense? Absolutely not. They were 6-8 without their big man this season with a -5.8 net rating, and if you've watched any Sixers games, you know that they run their offense through him (even since the Harden trade) and that he is the heart of their defense, too.
Not to mention that Embiid is their emotional leader on and off the floor. I don't deal with intangible stuff very often, I go where the numbers suggest. It's certainly possible that James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, and Tobias Harris can rally the troops and pull off an upset, but I think it's highly unlikely.
The Heat are not overrated as I have seen a lot of people suggest. They are properly rated! Earning the top seed in the East this season was no fluke as the East was a loaded conference. Miami's defense will now be able to focus on shutting down James Harden without having to worry about Embiid and that is a bad, bad thing for Philadelphia.
I think this one gets ugly in the opener. Miami is at home for Game One and they can smell blood in the water. They know they need to take advantage of the Embiid injury, so even while Jimmy Butler says he wishes that Joel was healthy and they were getting Philly at full strength, he knows they need to jump all over Philly early in this series in case Embiid comes back by Game Three. I will lay the points here and take the Heat to cover, but I will wait and see on the total because I really can't gauge how fast or efficiently Philly is going to play without Embiid.
It's tough picking the series here without knowing Embiid's status, but if he doesn't play at all, I have the Heat winning in four games. If Embiid can return by Game Three, then I think the Sixers could take this to six games and I would pick Miami to win 4-2.
The Pick: Heat -7.5 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks (+5.5) @ Phoenix Suns (214.5 total)
This should be a good series and I hope people are starting to realize how good Dallas is this year after they won that Utah series without having their best player for the first three games. The only problem for Dallas is they're now running into the best team in the West that just got their second-best player back as Devin Booker returned to the lineup for Game Six of the New Orleans series.
Phoenix stumbled a bit in that opening series and showed a few cracks in their armor. They won't be able to breeze through the playoffs as easily as they sailed through the regular season. They are prone to off-nights shooting, and their defense, while solid, has its weaknesses too. The Mavericks are well-coached, disciplined, and won't beat themselves very often. I think this series goes at least six games and that Dallas puts up a good fight, but in the end, Phoenix simply has too much firepower and I think the Suns take it in six games.
But what about tonight? Man, if there was ever a time for Dallas to steal a game, it would be here. They're playing with confidence and looked absolutely great in closing out Utah on both sides of the ball. Booker is still a bit banged up and you could tell he wasn't quite himself in Game Six of the opening series. I would love to be super bold and tell you that Dallas wins Game One (and I might still put a small ML bet on them), but for now, I am just going to say that 5.5 points is too many points for Phoenix to be favored until we see them play at their peak level.
So I'm going to go on the record with the Mavs +5.5 in this one and I am going to back the under here for the total as I think both teams are going to want to slow this game down and play through their point guards (Paul and Doncic) in the halfcourt.
The Pick: Mavericks +5.5 (-110), UNDER 214.5 Total Points (-110)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Chris Paul to double-double (-125): I'd rather bet on this prop than on his assist prop which is over 9.5 at -145. It's basically the same bet for better odds since CP3 is a near-lock for 10 points and that half of the dub-dub.
Jimmy Butler over 2.5 blocks/steals (+120): You know I am a sucker for Butler and defensive stat props. The more I think about James Harden with the ball in his hands on every possession, the more I think about how many steals the Heat be racking up tonight as Harden is a turnover-prone player. If Jimmy gets three, we hit this at plus odds and he's been known to block a few shots, too.
Dorian Finney-Smith over 2.5 3PM (+110): This has been one of my favorite Dallas prop bets this postseason. DFS crushed it in Game Six of the Utah series with four made threes and he is going to have to continue to shoot from outside when he's open if Dallas expects to be able to keep up with Phoenix in this series. I love that we keep this prop at plus odds, too.
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