RADIO
It's May 4th today, better known as "Star Wars Day" to nerds (like myself) everywhere! I promise not to make too many Star Wars references today, but I will say that yesterday reminded me of both "The Empire Strikes Back" and "Return of the Jedi."
The Celtics stuck back in a big way, shutting down the Bucks and leading game two from start to finish. I was foolish to write them off, I suppose and they showed that they're going to make that series a battle. Then in the late game, Ja Morant nearly single-handedly carried the Memphis Grizzlies to a thrilling game two win at home, dropping 47 points on the Warriors with 8 boards and 8 assists. Let's just say the force is strong with that one! I dropped both spread bets, but was able to salvage the night by going 4-4 on props which reminded me that I should be playing more props more often!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 62-62
- Against the Spread 24-21
- Over/Under 9-9
- Player Props 29-32
NBA Betting Picks for 5/4
Philadelphia 76ers (+8.5) @ Miami Heat (207.5 total)
Game one was a resounding win for the Heat as they pulled away from Philly in the second half and won by 14 points. The Sixers had no answer inside for Bam Adebayo who poured in 24 points and grabbed 12 boards. Jimmy Butler was fairly quiet and the Heat hardly needed him as Tyler Herro came off the bench for 25 points and the Heat defense smothered Philly's offense all night.
I could very easily just recommend going with the Heat again here, but something in the back of my head tells me "it's a trap!" The Sixers are backed into a corner here already in this series and have to know that if they go down 2-0 in this series they're probably cooked.
Think about this with me. Philly led by one point at halftime in game one. The Heat are still without Kyle Lowry and are relying entirely on Butler, Bam, and Herro for the most part. Tobias Harris did play well for Philly, scoring 27 points but Maxey and Harden struggled shooting the ball and the Philly bench offered absolutely no help at all.
If Doc Rivers can make some adjustments (like getting DeAndre Jordan off the floor) and Paul Reed can stay out of foul trouble, this Sixers team has a puncher's chance at keeping this game close enough into the fourth that they could steal it. I'm not interested in betting the Sixers ML, because the odds of them winning here are still pretty slim. But the spread in this game has swelled to 8.5 points, and I do think that the Sixers are capable of covering that tonight if they can play well in both halves this time. I'm flopping my bet from game one, and hoping that Philly makes some adjustments.
The Pick: Sixers +8.5 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks (+6) @ Phoenix Suns (216 total)
Well, I had the Mavs in game one to cover and they just barely missed as they lost by seven and the spread was 5.5. Game two has virtually the same spread here tonight and a slightly higher total, since the teams combined for 235 points in the opener to go way over.
I have to decide whether or not I double down on the Mavs tonight or flip to the Suns at home. There are two ways to look at this, I suppose. The Mavericks got 45 points from Luka Doncic and still couldn't cover, so can we assume if he doesn't go crazy tonight that they get smacked, right? Or perhaps we can look at Doncic's heroics and think that if he just had a little more help from Brunson, Dinwiddie, and others, then Dallas pulls that one out or at least covers.
I'm giving the Mavs another chance here. They trailed by double-digits throughout game one and kept battling back. Luka is so good and I'm willing to bet his role players are better in game two. The Suns were as good as we expected them to be and Dallas still competed. If Phoenix lets down even a little, Dallas will be right there or could snag an upset here. I'm rolling with the Mavericks and the points tonight, but leaving the total alone until we get one more game to use for our sample data. I mean, how can you not bet on Luke-A on Star Wars day?
The Pick: Mavericks +6 (-110)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Bam Adebayo over 33.5 PRA (-110): Bam was great against the Sixers in game one and the lack of Embiid on their interior allowed him to dominate the boards and get some easy buckets. He also sees an uptick in assists when Lowry is out, so I think he's a good bet to top this number (he cleared it by six stats in game one).
Tobias Harris over 19.5 points (-110): Harris led the Sixers in points (27) and shot attempts (18) in game one. He's going to have to continue to score for Philly with Embiid out this number feels low.
Luka Doncic over 9.5 rebounds (-140): He had 12 in game one and is the best rebounder on his team. He doesn't have to compete with a traditional center for boards, either. I think he gets 10+ again tonight.
Luka Doncic to triple-double (+290): If we like Luka for 10 boards, then why not ten assists, too? He had eight in game one and could have easily had ten if a few more shots from his teammates go down. This is obviously a half unit or even smaller type bet, don't go crazy!
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