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Happy Sixth of July! Hopefully you all had a great holiday weekend of grilling, shooting off fireworks, and watching baseball.
Just before the Fourth of July weekend, Team USA released their final roster for the upcoming Tokyo Olympics. There were quite a few recognizable names on the roster, like veterans Todd Frazier, Edwin Jackson and Scott Kazmir, as well as top prospects like Shane Baz and Triston Casas. Among the names left off were Jarren Duran and Matthew Liberatore — both of whom were believed to be contenders for cracking the Olympic roster. This has led to the speculation that they'll be getting called up to the majors soon. Because of that, we'll start off this week's column by taking a look at both Duran and Liberatore. Then we'll take a look at a power hitting first baseman in the Pirates system, and a pitching prospect at Triple-A Durham that's not named Shane Baz.
So first things first — let's take a look at these two Olympic snubs and see if you should be stashing them yet.
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Jarren Duran - OF, Boston Red Sox
Level: Triple-A
2021 stats: 41 G, .284/.378/.604, 15 HR, 31 RBI, 36 R, 10 SB
First up we have Duran, who has been absolutely mashing at Triple-A this season. He is currently second in Triple-A East with 15 home runs and a .604 slugging percentage. He has nearly doubled his home run output from the first two seasons of his career. Just in his last 14 games alone, he has hit five home runs with 13 RBI and 13 runs scored while slashing .333/.431/.648.
Along with that power, Duran is also flashing speed on the base paths too. He has four steals in his last 14 games and is 10-for-13 on stolen base attempts this year. Speed had been the bigger part of Duran's first two seasons in the minors, swiping 24 bags in 2018 and 46 in 2019. It seems that he's found some pop in his bat during the off year in 2020, and if he can even maintain a portion of the speed he's shown in the minors, he could be a fantasy star in the majors.
The big news this past week was that Duran had been left off of the Olympic roster for Team USA. While there's no guarantees, based on how he's been hitting it seems reasonable to believe that Duran was left off the roster because he could be getting called up to Boston in the near future. As we've seen already this season, even if he gets called up this summer it doesn't guarantee that he'll be the fantasy star that we all expect him to be in the future. That being said, there is some good fantasy potential in both his bat and his speed, and he's worth stashing in redraft leagues right now if you have an empty slot on your roster.
Matthew Liberatore - SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Level: Triple-A
2021 stats: 8 GS, 45 IP, 3-4, 4.40 ERA, 1.156 WHIP, 43 K
Another Olympic hopeful, Liberatore was left off the roster for Team USA like with Duran, which has led to speculation that Liberatore could be getting called up in the near future. A poor showing in May has hurt his season numbers, but since rejoining Triple-A Memphis following the Olympic qualifiers, Liberatore has gone 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA, 1.014 WHIP and 24 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings of work.
Over three seasons in the minors, Liberatore has an 11-8 record with a 3.12 ERA, 1.199 WHIP and 24.2 percent strikeout rate over 156 career innings. He's managed to improve his strikeout rate slightly from 22.9 percent in 2019 to 23.2 percent this year, but the biggest improvement has been with his walk rate, as he has dropped from a 10.2 percent rate in 2018 to 9.3 percent in 2019 to 6.5 percent this season.
Like with Duran, just because he was left off the Olympic roster doesn't guarantee that there's a call up coming for him in the near future. However, I think there's a very good chance we see Liberatore pitch in St. Louis in the second half of the season. The Cardinals' pitching rotation has been pretty banged up this season, and while they currently sit nine games out of first in the NL Central, a run at the playoffs is still a possibility for St. Louis. A possibility that could be more likely if Liberatore gets a call up. Managers in 12-team and deeper leagues should look into stashing Liberatore now if they have an empty slot on their roster.
Mason Martin - 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Level: Double-A
2021 stats: 48 G, .261/.327/.578, 13 HR, 40 RBI, 32 R
If you're looking for a power bat to stash in dynasty leagues, Martin is the guy for you. The 22-year-old first baseman has picked up where he left off in 2019, and he's even surpassing those numbers as his .261 average and .578 slugging percentage are his highest marks since 2017 in the Florida Gulf Coast League.
His 13 home runs this year are tied for third in Double-A Northeast, and over his last 10 games he's hit five home runs with 12 RBI and six runs scored while slashing .289/.325/.789. Oh, and also he's hit four home runs in his last three games. The one thing to keep in mind is that he's had a slight dip in plate discipline this year, as his strikeout rate has gone up a tick from 30.2 percent in 2019 to 32.2 percent while his walk rate has dropped from 12.2 percent to 6.4 percent.
Unlike with Liberatore and Duran, I do not expect to see Martin up this year. At best he might get a few games at the end of the season, but given how the Pirates are in rebuilding mode, there's no reason to rush him up to the majors and start the clock on his service time. Managers in dynasty formats should keep an eye on Martin though, as he could be a solid power bat in fantasy by the end of 2022.
Joe Ryan - SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Level: Triple-A
2021 stats: 10 G. 9 GS, 46 IP, 3-3, 4.11 ERA, 0.870 WHIP, 61 K
It's easy to get overshadowed when you're pitching on the same team as Top-100 prospect Shane Baz, but Ryan has been having a very nice year at Triple-A Durham. His 61 strikeouts are tied for second-most in Triple-A East, and while his 34.3 percent strikeout rate is down a bit from his 38 percent mark in 2019, he's also managed to drop his walk rate from 9.5 percent in 2018 to 5.6 percent in 2019 to 5.1 percent this year.
He's shown great command of the strike zone over his last four starts, as he has posted a 32.5 percent strikeout rate and 2.6 percent walk rate over his last 20 1/3 innings of work. The biggest problem he's had this season has been the long ball, as his 12.5 percent HR/FB rate is the worst mark of his career. It's largely been the home runs that have led to his 4.11 ERA, as his 0.87 WHIP is only slightly higher than his 2019 mark of 0.84, while his 3.19 FIP and 3.41 xFIP suggest that Ryan has been somewhat unlucky on the mound this year.
The Rays will most likely be back in the playoff hunt this year, and assuming that holds true, it's possible we could see Ryan join Tampa Bay later in the season. It's possible that the Rays would turn to Baz first given his track record in the minors, high prospect ranking, and success on the mound this year. Considering the fact that the Rays already called up top prospect Wander Franco this year, it wouldn't be surprising for them to go to Baz at some point this season. However, I think managers should keep an eye on Ryan, as he's a couple years older and putting up similar numbers to Baz, which could make the Rays want to call up Ryan first if it means keeping Baz for another year.
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