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I woke up on a bright Monday morning in a cabin adorned with photos of Tibetan people and locations, prayer flags, and masks. I pulled out my phone and pulled up the Red Zone Network. Although I was lying in a sleeping bag on a wooden bed under a wool blanket, I couldn't have been more comfortable. After all, regular NFL football was on, for the first time in forever, and my fantasy teams were winning.
You see, I am watching and covering football from Asia. Currently, I am in South Korea, and it is Chuseok, Korea's fall harvest festival. Just like how we watch football in America during Thanksgiving, I watch football here during Korean Thanksgiving. For the holiday, I rented a car and took it out to a valley in the countryside of Jeongseon county in the eastern mountains and stayed at this traditional house--Deoksanteo (Deok Mountain Guesthouse)--run by Choi Il-Soon, a former stage actor who traveled the world and became a tour guide.
But no matter how hard you pray to the Tibetan Buddhist shrines Il-Soon had collected in his travels, you can't get everything to go perfectly for you in fantasy football. Especially not in Week 1. Can Cole Kmet catch a pass already? Can T.J. Watt get through a game without having to leave halfway through with an injury that will limit his snaps all season--but not prevent him from making 20 sacks? And who do I have to pray to stop Elijah Mitchell from getting injured?
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including Best NFL Series, MLB Series, NBA Writer, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!Well, after this week and all its surprises, you might need some IDP waiver wire pickups to fill in for injuries and busts. For my recommendations, I am using RotoBaller Standard IDP scoring. It's a balanced scoring system with 1.4 points per solo tackle, 8.4 combined points per sack, 10 points per interception, and 2.5 points per pass defense.
Alex Highsmith, DL/LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Rostered in ~37.5% of IDP leagues (My Fantasy League)
The edge rusher on the other side of T.J. Watt is making his presence felt. Highsmith sacked Bengals QB Joe Burrow three times and forced one fumble. Highsmith, now in his third season, has been getting more playing time each year and making the most of it. From Year 1 to Year 2, he doubled his snap numbers and more-than-doubled his sack numbers. He increased his combined tackle numbers from 48 to 74. Now he is already halfway to his career high in sacks after Week 1.
Yes, Highsmith won't get to face the Bengals, who have a few new pieces on their offensive line who need to play better together, every week (but he will play them again once). Still, Highsmith is an ascending talent who benefits from playing alongside Watt on a Mike Tomlin- and Brian Flores-coached defense.
Greg Rousseau, DL (DE), Buffalo Bills
Rostered in ~67% of IDP leagues
Rousseau is already rostered in most leagues, but he should be rostered in many more leagues. He was a highly-graded pass rusher during his rookie season last year. On passing sets, he was winning 23.1% of the time. More importantly from a fantasy standpoint, he made 4.0 sacks while playing just 49% of Buffalo's snaps, and he figures to play closer to 70% of the snaps this year.
Kwity Paye, DL (DE), Indianapolis Colts
Rostered in ~50% of IDP leagues
The Colts' 2021 first-round draft pick had a quiet start to his first season. Kwity Paye didn't make his first NFL sack until Week 10. But then he made sacks for each of the next two games and another in Week 16. Now, he's hitting 2022 running from Week 1.
Two sacks and six solo tackles are a good start. It is tough to predict the weekly sack numbers of IDPs who line up on the defensive line, but if you need a DL or DE (as opposed to an LB-playing edge rusher) for a specialized IDP league, there are not many with the draft capital and upside of Paye who might be available.
Zach Cunningham, LB, Tennessee Titans
Rostered in ~33% of IDP leagues
Dating back to last season's Week 17 and the playoffs, Cunningham has made seven or more solo tackles for three straight games. The 28-year-old had three straight seasons of 100-plus combined tackles while playing for Houston from 2018-2020. He saw his snap count decline last season, and the Texans cut him after the trade deadline. Despite the disruption, Cunningham still finished with 93 combined tackles. He won't be on the field every time in obvious passing downs, but he could still put up solid tackle numbers on 75% of the Titans' snaps.
Brandon Jones, DB (SS), Miami Dolphins
Rostered in ~43.8% of IDP leagues
Brandon Jones shows the ability to make sacks as a safety. He made 5.0 sacks in 2021 while playing 64% of Miami's snaps. Now, he's the starter at strong safety. He played every snap of the Dolphins' Week 1 win over the Patriots and led the Fins in solo tackles and assists while making one sack and forcing one fumble.
Jones was graded 53.4 overall by PFF last season but 77.6 as a pass rusher. In upcoming games, he has a chance to show off his pass-rushing abilities still more. Three of the next four quarterbacks he lines up against ranked in the top-10 in times sacked last season (Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Zach Wilson in Weeks 2, 4, and 5, respectively).
Darrick Forrest, DB (SS), Washington Commanders
Rostered in ~0% of IDP leagues
Darrick Forrest only played 26 snaps his rookie season, but when he got his chance, filling in for S Kamren Curl (thumb) in Week 1, he showed what he could do. He notched five tackles, one interception, and one forced fumble in Washington's 28-22 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. His big plays came at key times. A pass breakup on third-down denied the Jaguars a touchdown on third-down. His fourth-quarter pick with 1:10 left ended Trevor Lawrence's comeback attempt.
The timeline on Curl's injury is unclear. At one point, it was reported he might need surgery. But if Forrest keeps playing like this when he has the opportunity, he could work himself into a greater role in the defensive rotation even when Curls is healthy.
Talanoa Hufanga, DB (S), San Francisco 49ers
Rostered in ~12% of IDP leagues
Another safety who is taking advantage of his opportunity to fill in for an injured starter, Hufanga made 11 tackles and one interception in his breakout game, the Niners' loss to the Bears. It's his second year in the league since earning first-team All-Pac 12 honors while playing for USC and being drafted in the fifth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. He'll be the starter at strong safety at least through Week 4, as Jimmie Ward remains on the PUP list.
Carlos "Boogie" Basham, DL (DE), Buffalo Bills
Rostered in ~12% of leagues
Is it overreacting to pick up a Bills defensive lineman who is No. 2 on the depth chart after their Week 1 demolition of the Rams' offensive line? Perhaps. The Bills use a deep rotation on the defensive line, which is both good and bad. Many defensive linemen will get playing time, but it will be hard to predict who will go off each week.
In Week 1, more than half of them went off, none more so than Carlos Basham, who scored made a sack and an interception, scored 21 fantasy points, and graded 85.8 (PFF). It is his second year after being selected in the second round from Wake Forest.
It's true, Basham only played 39% of the Bills' defensive snaps, the same percentage he played last season, and he's behind Greg Rousseau on the depth chart, but if you can't add Rousseau, Basham is the best value amongst widely-available Bills defensive linemen.
Be Wary Of...
Safety Marcus Williams had a great game in his Ravens debut, making 12 tackles and an interception, and forcing a fumble, and he was a highly-graded safety for the Saints for multiple years, but he usually plays deep, so it will be hard for him to keep up these kinds of numbers all year.
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