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RotoBallers, allow me to welcome you to another season of superior FAAB waiver additions over the archaic ways of the past. Week 1 provided plenty of chaos and some key injuries that open up some opportunities moving forward. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.
It's difficult to toe the line between savvy and overreaction, but do consider making a few calculated dart throws at RB/WR this early. Trust your process and us as analysts! For the first time in the 2022 season, here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 2.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
25% rostered
Jones only attempted 21 passes in a Week 1 victory over Tennessee, but he completed 17 of those for two touchdowns with one interception in Brian Daboll’s NYG debut. The pressure was off of Jones with Saquon Barkley at 100% and this should give him an opportunity to gain confidence throughout 2022.
More important is that Jones still rushed it six times for 25 yards and now faces a Panthers defense that lost to the Browns. I know Cleveland "contained" Jacoby Brissett but Jones is more of an aerial threat. If we don't see aggression out of Jones soon, then I'll stop dreaming but I like this as a foundational start.
Highest Passer Rating in Week 1
Patrick Mahomes 144.2
Justin Herbert 129.4
Kirk Cousins 118.9
DANIEL JONES 115.9
Josh Allen 112.0 pic.twitter.com/p7XFq3hH3f— NFL on CBS ? (@NFLonCBS) September 12, 2022
Carson Wentz (QB, WAS) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
13% rostered
We talked about how Goff and the Lions could hit another sneaky shootout in Week 2, which would leave Wentz as a threat for another top-five QB week! Yeah, another, because he threw for 313 yards and four touchdowns (with two INTs) in a victory over Jacksonville.
Facing JAX and DET to start the year is heartwarming for Wentz backers and I’m not overthinking it as a stream, just know his floor remains low.
*Marcus Mariota (at LAR), Davis Mills (at DEN), and Joe Flacco (at CLE) all carry some intrigue of course, but those are rough Week 2 matchups. If you’re going to need one, go with Mariota’s mobility as he moves outside to get away from Aaron Donald shooting up the interior.
Jared Goff (QB, DET) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
21% rostered
It wasn’t pretty, but Goff connected on 21-of-37 pass attempts with two touchdowns and a pick for a top-16 QB score in Week 1. That’s not impressive, but the Lions also had three rushing TDs chip in for a 35-point day in a game that reached 73 points.
Their offense is good enough to get into shootouts while their defense almost assures that outcome. A Week 2 date with Washington may lead to another 30-point outburst.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB, SF) - FAAB Bid: 30-50%
16% rostered
UPDATE 9/13: Elijah Mitchell was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury, and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks.
Elijah Mitchell was running well with 41 yards on six carries but then injured his knee and was spotted with a brace on after the game. Wilson entered as the No. 2 and was the lead RB after Mitchell left, totaling 30 yards on 11 touches in the horrible Chicago weather.
JWJ should run ahead of Jordan Mason and Tyrion Davis-Price (with Mitchell recovering) in a zesty Week 2 matchup against a porous Seahawks defense.
That said, I’d throw a small add towards Mason as a longer-term play should he get a chance to flash his upside on gamedays. Wilson is good but Mason’s ceiling is higher, even if Trey Lance is effectively San Fran’s RB1.
Khalil Herbert (RB, CHI) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
41% rostered
Herbert proved that offseason worries for David Montgomery’s workload were real as he garnered 10 touches to Montgomery’s 20 in Week 1. Beyond the 1A/1B share, Herbert also looked more effective with 45 yards and a TD on the ground compared to Montgomery’s 26 yards on 17 carries.
But Monty salvaged his day with 24 receiving yards on three catches. Add Herbert where you need RB depth.
Khalil Herbert also handled:
• 100% of the Goal Line touches
• 50% of the short yardage touchesHe was the better runner with more scoring opportunities. He’ll need to show his worth as a pass-blocker if he wants more receiving-down work.
— Alfredo Brown (@ThePretendGM) September 12, 2022
Rachaad White (RB, TB) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
38% rostered
White didn’t have any “wow” moments in Week 1 but we saw the potential path to greatness in the fourth quarter. The Bucs were up 19-3 when Leonard Fournette, who had demolished Dallas’ front, pulled up with a slight limp and didn’t return.
White then got all of the work, with neither Ke’Shawn Vaughn nor Giovani Bernard receiving a touch. Fournette seemed fine after the game but this is a “what-if” glimpse for speculators.
Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
4% rostered
Najee Harris suffered a foot injury late in Week 1 and didn’t return for overtime, which left Warren as the primary RB. While the injury isn’t reported as serious, Harris may still miss a game or two and leave Warren with short-term volume.
Unfortunately, Pittsburgh’s offensive line was awful and Harris/Warren combined for 30 rush yards on 13 carries. Temper expectations with matchups against New England and Cleveland fronts on the horizon.
Rex Burkhead (RB, HOU) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
13% rostered
Burkhead halted the Dameon Pierce hype train with 22 opportunities (14 carries, eight targets) to Pierce’s 12. They both struggled on the ground, averaging roughly three yards per carry.
But Pierce only had one target (that he caught for six yards) while Burkhead saw eight targets, which he caught five of for 30 yards. Burkhead ran a whopping 27 routes compared to Pierce’s seven. Stay patient as the rookie hits a groove but Burkhead remains eternal.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
DJ Chark (WR, DET) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
40% rostered
It was extremely rewarding seeing Chark find paydirt after his lost 2021 season. His eight targets trailed only Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jared Goff wasn’t afraid to look his way.
Even with similar snaps and routes run, Josh Reynolds only drew three targets. PFF’s Nathan Jahnke also pointed out that Detroit has eased up on targeting their RBs in the passing game since Dan Campbell assumed command.
This is a team that will find itself often trailing thanks to a subpar defense and Chark looks like he may threaten a 1,000-yard, eight-TD season as a result. Don’t gripe about garbage time, we just want to find skilled players with the opportunity share to flourish.
Week 1 Air Yards leaders (so far)
1. Davante Adams, 199
2. Christian Kirk, 142
3. Ja’Marr Chase, 140
4. CeeDee Lamb, 129
5. Jarvis Landry, 125
6. Brandin Cooks, 125
7. DJ Chark, 124
8. Justin Jefferson, 121
9. Diontae Johnson, 121
10. Tyreek Hill, 112— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 12, 2022
Jahan Dotson (WR, WAS) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
23% rostered
Dotson caught three-of-five targets for 40 yards and two touchdowns in an impressive NFL debut. He also rushed once for -10 yards, which I didn’t like as much.
Folks will flock to Curtis Samuel’s high target share but Dotson played one fewer snap and ran two fewer routes than Terry McLaurin as a clear starter. This is extremely encouraging going into Week 2’s date with Detroit’s vulnerable defense.
Curtis Samuel (WR, WAS) - FAAB Bid: 5-8%
5% rostered
Samuel turned 12 touches into 72 yards and a touchdown as he paced Washington in receptions in their 28-22 victory over Jacksonville. We haven’t seen a healthy Samuel affect the game since 2020 and got a sharp reminder out of the gate in ‘22.
Don’t expect him to lead the team in targets or take advantage of a Jacksonville matchup each week, but this WR trio may allow Washington to cover up a less-effective run game.
Curtis Samuel's Week 1 usage was awesome:
▪ 12 total touches (8 receptions, 4 carries)
▪️ 27% target share (led the team)
▪️ 55 total snaps (35 in slot, 12 wide, 7 backfield)— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) September 12, 2022
Devin Duvernay (WR, BAL) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%
31% rostered
Duvernay caught all four of his targets for 54 yards and a pair of touchdowns, which places him near the top of point leaderboards on the week. I loved him as a late-round pick, especially in best ball, but there is cold water to be poured.
He barely played on 50% of Baltimore’s snaps and only ran 18 routes. Rashod Bateman played on roughly two-thirds of Baltimore’s snaps and ran 25 routes as the No. 1 WR.
The Ravens didn’t need to press the gas but they also deploy a lot of two-TE sets, with PFF charting Baltimore with 16 one-WR sets out of 56 snaps. But also this team is missing its key rusher in J.K. Dobbins, so the run-first approach will thrive. I’m not throwing a lot here.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR, CLE) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%
4% rostered
Peoples-Jones led the Browns in catches (six), receiving yards (60), targets (11), and routes run (35) as Cleveland ground out a Week 1 win. He and Amari Cooper played 66 of their 80 snaps while no other wide receiver topped 23.
This team will lean more on David Njoku and Kareem Hunt as a No. 3 receiver instead, but DPJ’s being featured is worth waiver attention. Jacoby Brissett is limited but playoff weeks will see DPJ play with Deshaun Watson.
Joshua Palmer (WR, LAC) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
21% rostered
UPDATE 9/14: Keenan Allen has officially been ruled out for Week 2 against the Chiefs.
I know DeAndre Carter was the on-paper beneficiary as the man who stepped into Keenan Allen’s three-wide snaps, with a touchdown elevating his name. But it was Palmer who was the No. 3 over Carter and Jalen Guyton prior to Allen’s injury.
It was also Palmer who played in two-wide sets alongside Mike Williams after Allen left. The Chargers play on Thursday with a short week, limiting Allen’s window to recover so get Palmer loaded.
Robbie Anderson (WR, CAR) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
11% rostered
Even in a meat-grinder game against Cleveland, Anderson walked away with 102 yards and a long touchdown on five catches in Week 1. He only had 27 yards going into the fourth quarter but then broke free of poor coverage for a 75-yard scamper.
The difference for 2022 is Baker Mayfield is capable of hitting Anderson’s breakaway speed on deep balls. Anderson’s profile is still boom-bust but the range of outcomes as a whole has shifted up.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Gerald Everett (TE, LAC) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%
27% rostered
Everett, also known as my most drafted player between seasonal and best-ball formats for 2022, hauled in three of his four Week 1 targets for 54 yards and a touchdown. The Chargers had zero players tally more than four targets, but seven Chargers hit that four-target mark.
We can blame part of that on Keenan Allen’s early departure but I’d expect the offense to be more centralized for Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Everett moving forward. Kudos to those who stashed a piece of this high-scoring offense before Week 1!
Hayden Hurst (TE, CIN) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
10% rostered
If you miss on Everett and feel uneasy about your TE, then take aim at Hurst, who ran a route on 52-of-75 snaps played for a high-octane Cincinnati offense.
The Bengals battled turnovers against a tough Steelers defense but now face an ailing Cowboys squad and the Jets in the next two weeks. Hurst seeing eight targets may be a weekly occurrence, especially if Tee Higgins misses time with the concussion.
Players in pre-snap motion are 29% more likely to draw a target
Week 1 leaders in pre-snap motion routes:
11 - Hayden Hurst
9 - Amon-Ra St. Brown, Curtis Samuel
7 - Christian Kirk, Justin Jefferson
6 - Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Michael Carter
5 - Parris Campbell, Chase Claypool— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 12, 2022
Taysom Hill (TE/QB, NO) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
10% rostered
Hill made headlines with a 57-yard rush that led to an 11-yard touchdown, making for a totally Taysom drive. But please keep two feet on the ground here as Hill only had five touches in the game and one can’t bank on casual 50-yard breakouts every week.
Jameis Winston looks solid at QB and Atlanta’s defense is not their opponent each week either, so I’m keeping bids modest. Sorry for decking you with the cover photo!
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS) - FAAB Bid: 0-2%
6% rostered
Thomas only played on 48 of Washington’s 77 snaps but he easily outworked John Bates and Armani Rodgers, catching three balls for 45 yards.
This is a man who tore his ACL last December and one has to think his workload will creep up as the season progresses. Beyond that, Thomas is a nice deep-league stream against the Lions in Week 2.
O.J. Howard (TE, HOU) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
1% rostered
Yes, Howard caught two touchdowns. But those were his only catches of the game and he only ran six routes on 12 snaps throughout the contest.
Compare that to 16 routes on 45 snaps for Pharaoh Brown and 24 routes on 40 snaps for Brevin Jordan and you’ve got quite the headache. I can’t throw aggressive bucks this way based on such a small workload sample myself.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense (vs NE) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
30% rostered
You have to target the Patriots at this point, even if the Steelers will be without T.J. Watt for a while. The Pats had the entire offseason to prepare and they came out flat, allowing two sacks and rarely threatening the Dolphins.
Mix in a mild Mac Jones back injury and this being a home game for PIT and you've got a stew going. The current game total line at most sportsbooks is hovering around a lowly 40 points.
Cleveland Browns Defense (at NYJ) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
26% rostered
I know there was optimism surrounding Joe Flacco flying the Jets around but Baltimore sure put him to the test. While he did eclipse 300 passing yards (307), it took him 59 pass attempts to get there.
This could be a low-scoring slugfest but Flacco, who got sacked three times and threw a pick in Week 1, is likely to tee up some fantasy points for Cleveland's strong edge rushers in Week 2. This is another contest where the game total O/U is holding around 40.
Washington Commanders Defense (at DET) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
12% rostered
If you need an option that is more widely available then consider the Commanders. I know I've projected this to devolve into a sloppy shootout but Washington still got to a mobile Trevor Lawrence twice for the sack and secured an interception.
You are targeting Detroit's defense in this case, with the hopes that Washington puts them into a hole and forces Goff to air it out rather than allowing for a balanced attack that primarily utilizes D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams.
Look for teams put into risky spots. Or hold onto this decision until you get closer to projected weather reports in the hopes another storm knocks down scoring somewhere.
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