IDP One-Man Mock Draft for Fantasy Football

Whether you're an analyst or a casual fan, nearly everyone in fantasy football has what we call a "home league." These are the types of leagues where you gather with your oldest and closest friends to drink beer, make fun of each other’s anatomy, and eventually draft a fantasy team that you won’t recognize once you’re sober. These are the kinds of leagues where your friends make picks without their pants on, and someone will inevitably remember the night with a shameful exclamation of, “I saw all the pubes!”

In these home leagues, you can expect the rankings to fly out the window after the first beer, as many of your friends pay a premium for their favorite players. When that’s the type of league you’re in, or if you just play with a bunch of managers who think differently than most analysts do, it pays to think outside of the box in your draft preparations. That’s why I like to do my annual “One Man Mock with Multiple Personalities,” which is my attempt to help you prepare for unorthodox drafts that don’t follow common expectations.

For this Multiple Personality mock, I will project your home league fantasy draft (including Individual Defensive Players) while donning 12 different personalities for 12 different teams. Some of these personalities will have overlap, but each will be driven by fantasy biases and tendencies that most of us are familiar with.

Diff'rent Strokes

For our purposes, the personalities/teams I will don are as follows….

1. The Steady Eddies- Steady Eddies will avoid injury risks unless the value is just too good, and they will value high-floor assets;
2. The Mavericks- Mavericks aren’t afraid of injured players, typically drafting players they like regardless of position or value;
3. The Hype Trains- These ‘hype’ oriented managers let hyperbole and camp buzz heavily influence their choices;
4. Zero RB 4 Life- Those who utilize the ‘Zero RB’ strategy will wait to draft a running back until round five or later, preferring to load up on talent at other positions instead;
5. The Best Players Available- This team will traditionally draft the best player on their board, regardless of position;
6. Half-Back 2 Da Future- This team utilizes a heavy running back style of drafting;
7. The Basic B's- Basic drafters will lean towards established veterans and big names, often failing to recognize when a vet has hit his wall (i.e., Le’Veon Bell);
8. The Wild Cards- A Wild Card manager, like the Mavericks, will be unpredictable. They will often wait to fill big roster holes until it's too late and will ignore insurance policies;
9. Jack Reacher- Jack Reacher will reach or players… duh;
10. The Trend Setters- This team likes to start the runs on positions like QB and TE rather than be at their end. They value having the best player at a position, regardless of positional depth;
11. Voodoo Veterans- Imagine this team is run by one of those loud-mouthed fantasy football analysts on Twitter who doesn’t know when to stop patting themselves on the back (aka Yours Truly);
12. Chalk Blockers- This team will stick closely to their app’s ADP (average draft position), rarely deviate from the app’s recommendation for who to pick.

With that covered, it’s also important for you to understand that we will be mocking/drafting in the most common and shallow of IDP formats here.  The league rules we will be using are as follows….

1. This league will use just one DL position, one LB, and one DB;
2. Our IDP scoring for this mock consists of:
   1. 1-point per solo-tackle
   2. ½-point for a half-tackle
   3. 3-points for sacks
   4. 2-points for safeties/PDs/FR, and
   5. 4-points for forced turnovers (i.e., INTs and FFs).
3. This will be a redraft format, not dynasty;
4. This will be a Non-Superflex draft, meaning only one starting QB for each team.

Now, if you’ve made it through all of that explanation, we can finally get on to the fun stuff! So, without further ado, let’s get to the picks!

Rounds 1 & 2

Toilet Trends:

• When you think about taking Patrick Mahomes early in your Non-Superflex drafts, think twice. The difference between fantasy’s QB1 and QB12 has been 8.2 fantasy points per game over the past three seasons. Meanwhile, the difference between an RB1/WR1 and a lower-tier RB2/WR2 is often double-digit fantasy points per game. Additionally, since 2016 the first quarterback selected in fantasy drafts has finished as QB12 on average. If you factor Aaron Rodgers’ lost 2017 season out of that equation, the average fantasy finish for top-drafted quarterbacks is just QB8. The highest that any of these premium-priced passers have finished during this span is QB4.

• One team that should be concerned with how this mock is falling is Wild Card. There are already 13 RBs off the board by the end of this second round, and three more (J.K. Dobbins, Joe Mixon, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire) are likely to be gone before Wild Card picks again. Wild Card may have to settle for a mid-tier RB2 as his top rusher, which is a less than ideal result for a team that didn’t set out intending to go Zero RB.

Magical Moves:

• Half-Back 2 Da Future and the Voodoo Veterans both start this draft off by solidifying their RB position. Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, Antonio Gibson, and Nick Chubb are high-end rushers who are virtually guaranteed high volume. Voodoo, in particular, proves that you can have a promising start to your draft despite starting with a late pick, nabbing Gibson in the second round to give himself a decided edge at RB2 every week. This start will likely pay dividends later, when others are trying to fill the RB position with scraps while Voodoo is adding high-upside WRs at a discount.

Rounds 3-5

Toilet Trends to Avoid:

• Najee Harris is the Only Rookie Worthy of a Top-50 Redraft Pick- Ja’Marr Chase and Kyle Pitts are elite long-term talents, but they are being drafted like established stars. Chase is currently struggling with drops and separation issues that were glaringly obvious during his limited time against Washington this past week. Meanwhile, Pitts investors need to remember that no rookie TE in the history of fantasy has come close to producing like the top-40 pick he currently is. Chase and Pitts should be good fantasy assets as rookies, but they are currently being drafted near their ceiling. Factor in their downside, and they should be going a full round later than their current fourth-round ADP.
• More QBs Going Too High: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray are all great players. I won’t be taking any of them in the top-50 picks of Non-Superflex formats. We discussed why earlier.

Magical Moves:

• Lions Will Lean on Hock: Jared Goff has targeted the TE position 8.58 times per game since 2019, despite having weapons like Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp at his disposal. With no established wide receivers on the Detroit roster, expect Goff to target his tight ends even more than he has in the past. A vast majority of those targets should go to T.J. Hockenson, who ran a route on 66.4% of his plays and saw the 12th most snaps of any TE in the NFL last year. If Travis Kelce cedes his crown as fantasy’s top tight end in 2021, the MVP of Tight End University is as likely a successor as anyone.
• Zero RB Breathes Sigh of Relief: Here, you can see why the Zero RB strategy can be risky. In this mock, the Zero RB 4 Life squad waits until round five to take an RB (which isn’t as late as some push their luck). That wait leaves them choosing between the risky high-upside play of Javonte Williams and a sturdy mid-tier back like Myles Gaskin. Zero RB strategy demands you go with upside, so Williams was the pick.

Rounds 6-9

Toilet Trends to Avoid:

• Wrong 49ers Back Will Likely Go First- Trey Sermon is unquestionably the 49ers back to roster in dynasty leagues. However, people are underrating Raheem Mostert in redraft formats. The San Francisco backfield will be a timeshare, and Mostert has easily been outshining his younger counterparts in camp so far. Expect the fastest player on the 49ers (Mostert) to start games, as Coach Shanahan has shown a preference for starting veteran backs in the past, and end expect the veteran to lead the backfield in big plays.

 Magical Moves:

• Jets Receiver Group May Surprise: Since the NFL Draft, Yours Truly has been touting the fantasy merits of Jets rookie receiver Elijah Moore. Unfortunately, Moore has missed New York’s first two preseason games due to injury, which has allowed Corey Davis to get serious run with Zach Wilson. While Moore still holds tremendous upside, Davis now looks to lead this team in targets by a considerable margin.

Defender Drops:

• Several Defenders Go Where They Should: In shallow IDP leagues like the one we are playing in here, and most others, there are clear and defined tiers. T.J. Watt and Darius Leonard are in a tier of their own. They deserve to go within the first 90 picks of most IDP drafts, largely because they have a long history of dominating their given positions, and there's little reason to believe they will stop anytime soon. Watt, in particular, is the Christian McCaffrey of defenders in leagues where he has DL eligibility.
• The second tier of defenders comprises Devin White, Myles Garrett, Chase Young, Jamal Adams, and Budda Baker. This tier consists of the two best DBs in fantasy right now (though they are less dominant at their position than Watt or Leonard) and three elite young players who can close the fantasy gap on Leonard and Watt this year. It is excusable to take these players somewhere between picks 90 and 100 of shallow IDP formats.
• Once you hit the third tier of defenders, you should feel comfortable waiting to draft tacklers until the later rounds of a shallower IDP draft. The gap in fantasy value closes considerably once you get past the top-tier defenders, especially when you factor in the injury concerns surrounding stars like Nick Bosa and Derwin James.

Rounds 10-13

Moves Worth Mentioning:

• Defender Central: This range of picks is where you can expect the majority of starting defenders to go in your standard shallow IDP formats. Rounds 11-13 are the sweet spot for defenders in shallow IDP leagues like this because the upside of offensive players finally drops below that of tacklers. While you should expect these types of starting-caliber defenders to be off the board earlier in deep IDP leagues or premium defensive scoring formats, this is the range to target defenders in most IDP leagues.
• Fighting Back(s): Many timeshare and specialty backs are likely to be targeted in this range, particularly by teams that passed on RB early. Players like J.D. McKissic and Nyheim Hines have proven they can be inconsistent RB2 options in deeper leagues if they get plenty of targets… but those targets are anything but guaranteed. This run on passing down backs and backup runners is one reason most analysts target RBs early. There's far more volatility and less upside with these lower-tier RBs than the WRs going in this range.
• Defenders Worth More Than Their ADP: While there are plenty of good defenders on the board in this range, there are a few who stand out as bargains in this range. One is last year’s breakout safety Jeremy Chinn, who should still be a starting-caliber fantasy DB despite changing to a full-time safety position this year. Another target worth paying for here is Micah Parsons. He has the talent to be a top-three fantasy LB as a rookie, and he is getting every-down run with Dallas this preseason. Parsons is now firmly in the LB1 conversation, with fantasy upside comparable to any other ‘backer in the NFL.

Rounds 14-16

Moves Worth Mentioning:

• Rounding Out Defenders to Close Draft: Like in most drafts with D/ST units, look for many people to clean up their defensive positions in these final rounds if the IDP format is shallow. If you waited past the 11th round, what's a couple more? Look to target upside in this range rather than floor, though many of your friends will just take the guys whose name they recognize or who is highest on their draft list since the draft is getting late and they are starting to sober up. Titans defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, Cardinals linebacker Zaven Collins, and Washington safety Kamren Curl are worth late-round investments if you waited on defense until the end.
• Waiting on QB Can Pay Off in Non-Superflex: One promising strategy in single QB leagues is to wait until the very end, then nab two high upside passers late. A combination of Tua Tagovailoa plus either Justin Fields or Trey Lance gives you two shots to land a very high-upside passer for incredibly cheap, allowing you to get another starter at RB or WR while your friends invest in Mahomes or Jackson.

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