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Welcome to the third edition of our new weekly column "Is It Legit?" that will discuss breakout performers from the 2018 MLB season and how they should be valued heading into 2019.
With so many players seemingly becoming fantasy baseball darlings overnight, it can be challenging to sift through the multiple hype trains and determine which players are actually expected to produce similar, or even better, numbers the following year.
Perhaps the most notable breakout from 2018 was Dodgers infielder Max Muncy, who went from not even making the big leagues in 2017 to blasting 35 home runs with a .391 OBP last season. He played all around the infield, starting 58 games at first, 13 at second and 30 at third. The big question now, is will the dynamic, power hitting infielder be able to repeat this type of production in 2019?
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Can Muncy Repeat in 2019?
Coming up through the Oakland farm system, Muncy had always displayed outstanding, borderline elite plate discipline as a minor leaguer. He did flash some power, including 21 home runs and a .400 OBP in 2013 at High-A, but he did not hit more than 12 home runs in a single other season until last season.
Muncy reached the big leagues in 2015, hitting .206/.268/.392 with three home runs and an 8.0% walk rate in just 45 games. He was up again in 2016, but limped to a .186/.308/.257 line with two home runs and a 15.0% walk rate.
Muncy was released by Oakland after that, and spent all of 2017 in Triple-A with the Dodgers. He hit extremely well at that level, posting a .309/.414/.491 slash with 12 home runs and a stellar 14.2% walk rate.
Then, the breakout happened. Muncy came up for the Dodgers to replace Justin Turner at third base. He absolutely mashed the ball from the get-go, prompting manager Dave Roberts to continue to find playing time for him. When Chris Taylor moved to shortstop to replace Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger moved to centerfield allowing Muncy to play first base. When they acquired Manny Machado, Muncy still found himself in the lineup on a regular basis. And how could he not? He slashed an incredible .263/.391/.582 with 35 round-trippers, 75 runs scored, 79 RBI and even three stolen bases, because why not.
Taking a deeper look at Muncy's batted ball profile reveals just how dominant he really was. Muncy posted an ungodly 47.4% hard-hit rate, along with a 40.2% medium rate and a miniscule 12.4% soft hit rate. Basically, everything Muncy hit was absolutely scorched last season. Most of the time when you see guys increase their hard-hit rate at really high intervals, it comes with an increase in ground ball rate. Not the case for Muncy, who had a remarkably well-distributed 20.8% line drive rate, 34.3% groundball rate and 44.9% fly ball rate. Only 5.9% of those were infield flys, which makes sense when looking at his hard-hit rate.
It also makes sense that a player who had a near-50% hard-hit rate and a 45% fly ball rate would also post a crazy-high HR/FB rate, which Muncy certainly did at 29.4%. However, it's hard to call that a fluke, as Muncy's batted ball profile clearly supports a crapload of home runs.
Basically, Muncy's numbers last season were legit. His .299 BABIP suggests that his batting average was about in line with what can be expected of him, and the 16.4% walk that, while very high, isn't too far off the numbers he posted in the minor leagues.
Still, it's hard to assume he will be a consistent 30 home run threat when he last hit 20 home runs in High-A back in 2013. Sure he crushed the ball last year, but how much of that was pitchers who weren't familiar with him? Is a near-50% hard-hit rate truly sustainable in 2019? Probably not. However, his elite plate discipline plays well anywhere, and if he gets consistent at-bats I don't see any reason why he can't top 25 dingers next season. As a player with 1B/3B eligibility, that does give him nice value in all formats - particularly OBP where he gets a big boost.
The biggest question for Muncy will be playing time. The Dodgers will get Corey Seager back, which should push Chris Taylor back into the outfield. Does the team decide to keep Bellinger at first base and if so, where does Muncy play?
Ultimately, I am not too concerned about this. Dave Roberts and the Dodgers will find a place for him, just like you should in your fantasy lineups.
