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We continue with our next edition of "Is It Legit?" to discuss another surprising breakout performer from the 2018 MLB season in order to assess his value heading into 2019.
With so many players seemingly becoming fantasy baseball darlings overnight, it can be challenging to sift through the multiple hype trains and determine which players are actually expected to produce similar, or even better, numbers the following year.
A first glance at Angels SP Tyler Skaggs' 2018 season numbers may not exactly indicate that a breakout even occurred. After all, he finished the season with a 4.02 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP and a 9.26 K/9. Yes, those are all up from 2018, but it doesn't look that dramatic. However, a few injury-riddled starts at the end of the year skewed his numbers a bit. Through the first 19 starts of the season, Skaggs was rocking a 2.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and a 9.41 K/9. Are those numbers sustainable for a full season, or is the injured Skaggs from the final month of the year bound to return and ruin the fun? Let's take a look.
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Can Skaggs Repeat in 2019?
Skaggs' 4.02 ERA, which occurred thanks to a late-season blow-up when he returned too soon from an arm injury, is not supported by his peripherals. Skaggs posted a 3.63 FIP, a 3.79 xFIP, and a 3.86 SIERA - all which imply that he pitched better than his ERA indicates.
Looking a little deeper though, there is cause for concern. Skaggs allowed a career-high 40.1% hard-hit rate, along with a measly 13.1% soft hit rate. These changes happened with a similar rate of line drives, ground balls and fly balls allowed, meaning hitters were making the same types of contact - just harder. You don't need me to tell you that that is not usually a recipe for success. And while it's true he struck out more hitters - which is obviously good - even that looks a little flukey.
Opposing hitters chased pitches out of the zone 29.4% of the time last year, only slightly up from his 28.9% career mark. They made less contact, with Skaggs posting a career-high 11.0% swinging strike rate. However, that slight improvement in whiffs is swiftly counteracted by how much harder opponents were hitting the ball off of him.
Skaggs was helped in part by an excellent defense behind him, as the Angels middle infield of Ian Kinsler and Andrelton Simmons is among the best in the league. They also had Martin Maldonado, Kole Calhoun and Mike Trout who are among the best at their respective positions as well. Of course, that defense could still be there next season, so it's not fair to discount that from Skaggs just yet.
Overall, Skaggs is certainly not likely to post a 2.65 ERA next season, as he did in the first 19 games of 2018. However, he's probably closer to the 3.63 FIP than the 4.02 ERA he actually posted, especially if he has a good defense behind him again in LA.
I'm perfectly willing to look at Skaggs as an SP6 or SP7 in 10-12 team leagues. Injury risk is always a concern for the left-hander, but the upside is absolutely worth the gamble at that point in drafts.
