J.D. Martinez: Bounce-Back or Fantasy Bust?

It's easy to forget that just three short years ago, J.D Martinez was considered the best hitter in baseball. He slashed an incredible .330/.402/.629 with 43 home runs and 130 RBI, taking home the AL Hank Aaron Award.

Martinez followed up that season with a very solid 2019, but his production completely fell off in the shortened 2020 season. Martinez slashed .213/.291/.389, a .350 OPS drop-off from his historic 2020. Factor in his non-existent defense and slow-as-molasses base-running, and Martinez was the worst player in baseball last year in terms of WAR.

With Martinez still owed 38 million dollars over the next two years, the Red Sox have to hope that he rediscovered the form that once made him the best hitter in baseball. Fantasy managers will have to decide if he's worth the risk on draft day.

2020 Struggles

The advanced metrics back up what the eye test and the standard stats say about J.D Martinez’s 2020 season: It was a complete free fall.  His exit velocity fell by two miles per hour, his barrel percentage and sweet spot percentage fell by a point, his hard-hit percentage fell by six points, his strikeout rate increased by four points, and his walk rate fell by three points.  Essentially the only good thing you could say about Martinez’s 2020 season is that he increased his launch angle by two and a half degrees, but since his exit velocity dipped, his home run rate dropped from one every 16 at-bats to one every 30 at-bats.

There is obviously something to be said for a small sample size, but the fact remains: Martinez was simply bad last year. His bat speed appeared to have slowed considerably, and he couldn’t catch up to hard stuff, going from hitting .318 on fastballs in 2019 to .186 on fastballs in 2020. He was more aggressive, increasing his swing percentage from 49.5% from 51.3%, yet he made contact nearly 1.5% less frequently. These aren’t huge drops, but they all are concerning trends for the soon-to-be 34-year-old designated hitter.

2021 Outlook

It’s fair to assume that Martinez will never repeat his MVP-level production of 2018, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still be a productive player. Martinez is a famous user of in-game video, and with the replay room being closed last year, many of his in-game routines were altered. This obviously isn’t the sole reason for the decline, but it could help explain how such a talented hitter could have such a deep dropoff in such a short amount of time. As much as Martinez would like to admit it, the return of in-game instant replay is not going to suddenly solve all of his issues.

To Martinez’s credit, he’s put in the work this offseason. His hitting coach, Kevin Suarez, estimates that he throws about 200-300 flips every morning, and then at night, Martinez goes and hits with others. When it comes to reworking a swing, there are few who get the benefit of the doubt more than Martinez. After a dismal 2013 season, Martinez, then a 26-year-old outfielder with a career .687 OPS to his name, went to California to rework his swing with hitting gurus Robert Van Scoyoc and Craig Wallenbrook. He then proceeded to hit .315 the next year and quickly became one of the best hitters in baseball. It is easier, however, to redesign your swing at 26 than at 34 with declining bat speeds.

Indeed, many of the top MLB projections sites don’t believe he will return to his 2019 levels of production. Each of the five major projection sites has Martinez hitting around .270 with an OPS around .850 and between 27 and 34 home runs. These are solid numbers, but it’s far from his 2014-2019 peak, where he batted .307, had an OPS of .954, and averaged 42 home runs per full season. Martinez has always been a player solely dependent on his offensive numbers due to his porous baserunning, but he was able to overcome that with top-of-the-charts offensive numbers. However, his projected offensive numbers just aren’t good enough in the home-run happy environment of the current MLB.

Martinez is draftable in the mid-to-late rounds as a cheap power source, but his days of being a tier 1 player is over. His current ADP of 93 overall is reasonable for those counting on positive regression but don't reach expecting a full bounce-back season.

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