RADIO
Bold predictions can be the key to fantasy seasons. Predicting players who will outperform or underperform expectations by extreme amounts can win leagues. Bold predictions can also be entirely unhelpful, speculative thoughts that are just fun to consider.
With that in mind, I do think that each of these predictions has a legitimate chance of occurring this year. Not all of the predictions are going to be correct, but they do shed some light on how I feel about certain players coming into the season.
Last year's predictions were hampered by the shortened season and I think I may have placed an injury curse on others, with Ken Giles and Starlin Castro featuring favorably before missing nearly the entire season. Let's hope 2021 sees better health for everyone and I don't jinx anyone. I'm all about the power of positivity so all predictions will be positive outlooks on players and none consists of players underperforming.
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Mitch Garver will be a top-three catcher
ADP 204 - Catcher no.13
In 2019, Garver hit 31 homers with a .273/.365/.630 slash line. That .630 slugging percentage led all catchers (Will Smith was second with .571) and only Gary Sanchez hit more home runs (34). Garver achieved that in only 93 games. Last year, Garver was hurt and only managed to feature in 23 games (81 plate appearances).
His struggles were clear with a .167 batting average and just two homers. But Garver's 92.4 MPH average exit velocity was fifth among all catchers and his 50% hard-hit rate (balls hit 95+ MPH) was fourth-best. The Twins lineup will be a top-five run-scoring offense and given the no. 2 catcher in drafts has already been told he'll only play in ~90 games this year, the bar for catchers to be fantasy relevant isn't particularly high.
Ty France leads all second baseman in home runs
ADP 313 - Second baseman no.29
The Mariners look likely to give France everyday at-bats, either at second base or as the designated hitter. Given France hit .305/.368/.468 last year between his time with the Padres and Mariners, that should have been enough to secure a regular lineup spot for this year. If it wasn't, his spring will have done the job with five homers in 36 at-bats and a .417/.488/.917.
In 2019, France hit 27 homers in 76 Triple-A games and now at 26 years old, appears to be developing fully into a power hitter. According to ATC projections, Mike Moustakas is the only second baseman projected to hit 30+ homers this year so if France's newfound power is legit, he can lead the position in homers.
Javier Baez ends the year as a top-5 SS
ADP 70 - Shortstop no.11
Last year was not a good one for Baez. That could be said for many players in such a disruptive year. The two years prior to 2020, Baez was one of the leading shortstops in baseball and a 5-category contributor in fantasy. As you can see below, Baez's 2021 ATC projections are remarkably similar to his actual 2019 numbers.
Following his 2019 season, Baez had an ADP of 36 in drafts last year and was the sixth shortstop taken. This year, top-tier shortstops are a-dime-a-dozen but how many are projected to hit 25+ homers and get 10+ steals? Four. Throw in the counting stats and a good batting average, Baez should comfortably be a top-50 hitter. If last year was an outlier, he'll be a top-5 shortstop heading into 2022 drafts.
| Year | ADP | GP | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| 2018 | 105 | 160 | 101 | 34 | 111 | 21 | .290 |
| 2019 | 16 | 138 | 89 | 29 | 85 | 11 | .281 |
| 2020 | 36 | 59 | 27 | 8 | 24 | 3 | .203 |
| 2021 | 70 | 150 | 82 | 27 | 86 | 14 | .260 |
Nick Senzel finishes as a top-20 OF with a 20-HR & 25-SB season
ADP 256 - Outfielder no.65
Another hitter who really struggled last year, playing just 23 games due to a likely Covid-19 diagnosis (officially listed as an undisclosed issue). He hit .186/.247/.357 on the year with two steals and two homers. A far cry from his 2019 debut where he hit 12 homers and stole 14 bases in 104 games with a .256 average.
Senzel has already been anointed as the Reds starting center fielder and is enjoying a nice spring with a .344/.432/.594 line with two homers and one steal. If we stretch out his 2019 season to a full year of ~150 games, we're looking at an 18 homer and 21 stolen base season so a little both of growth should see him reach 20/25. Given Trent Grisham is projected for 23 homers and 18 steals and is the 19th outfielder being drafted, Senzel is seriously underrated and looks like a potential breakout star for 2021.
Jared Walsh leads all first basemen in runs scored
ADP 210 - First baseman no.23
Walsh is projected to score 64 runs this year, but I still believe he will be the Angels primary first base option as well as seeing time in the outfield and will play upwards of 140 games. If hitting second in the lineup holds true (like he did for a lot of 2020), Walsh will be hitting in front of Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Shohei Ohtani.
In the 16 games Walsh hit second in the lineup last year, he scored 12 runs, meaning over 140 games Walsh would score 105 runs at that rate. Freddie Freeman is the only first baseman projected to score over 100 runs in 2021 so providing Walsh hits as well as he did last year, he's a serious threat to crossing home plate 100 times in 2021.
Greg Holland ends the season top-five in saves
ADP 267 - Relief pitcher no.23
Holland returned to his spiritual home in 2020 and had a 1.91 ERA in 38.1 IP for the Royals. At age 35, Holland appears locked into the closer role and the Royals have quietly put together a solid roster that looks like they could at least compete for a wildcard spot. They look ready to challenge the Indians for third place in the AL Central and put up a .500 record.
With so much volatility among MLB bullpens, being a secure closer on an ok team is already enough to warrant consideration as a top-10 fantasy reliever. Holland has a career 2.90 ERA and with the Royals, his ERA is a miserly 2.41. There's something to be said for feeling comfortable with your surroundings.
A.J. Cole leads the Blue Jays in saves
With news that Kirby Yates will miss the 2020 season, Jordan Romano is the popular closer in waiting with Rafael Dolis also in contention. However, there's a strong possibility that the Blue Jays use Romano in higher leverage situations (i.e. with men on base) given his high strikeout rate (31.8% K%) and Anthony Bass got the majority of saves for the Blue Jays last year despite having similarly low strikeout numbers to Cole.
What Cole did do very well last year was induce weak contact (as evidenced by his Statcast profile below) and although that isn't normally what managers look for in a closer, coming in to start a new inning with empty bases will suit Cole. If the Blue Jays do end up playing a large number of games in Dunedin, weak contact could be critical to success and Cole's 3.09 ERA last year was a career-low. For a team that wants to contend this year, Cole may end up being a very solid fantasy addition too with 25+ saves.
Jameson Taillon ends the season as a top-20 starting pitcher
ADP 206 - Starting pitcher no.59
Few pitchers have had to endure the injuries and medical issues that Taillon has in his young career. Still only 29 years old, it might be hard to believe that 2020 was the first year he didn't pitch in the Major League since making his debut in 2016. That's due to him undergoing TJS in 2019 which came on the back of a huge breakout season in 2018 where Taillon had a 14-10 record over 32 starts (191.0 IP), a 3.20 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
Over the course of his Major League career, Taillon has a 3.67 ERA from 466.0 IP, a matching 3.67 xFIP and 3.93 SIERA. Only 124 pitchers have thrown 400+ innings since 2016 and only 26 of those have a better xFIP. Now under the tutelage of highly regarded pitching coach Matt Blake, Taillon could regain his best form and become a star again in the Bronx.
Sean Manaea ends the season as a top-25 starting pitcher
ADP - Starting pitcher no.71
Speaking of pitchers coming off of lengthy layoffs from surgery, Manaea returned to the mound last year after missing most of 2019 following shoulder surgery. There is an argument that Manaea is too big of an injury risk to roster in fantasy, but two of his prior IL stints were the minimum 15 days and the other was 37 days.
Manaea also averaged 154.2 IP between 2016-18 and made 11 starts last year (54.0 IP). His career-high 4.50 ERA in 2020 was understandable given his lengthy layoff but he actually had a 3.77 xFIP and 4.01 SIERA so his underlying numbers were pretty solid. Being a groundball pitcher with excellent control while having an elite defensive infield behind you is a recipe for success and Manaea ticks all those boxes.
The Miami Marlins players have five starting pitchers with a sub 4.00 ERA and 120.0+ IP
Sixto Sanchez, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez all had a sub-3.00 ERA last year. Trevor Rogers did not (6.11 ERA) but he did have a 3.67 xFIP and 3.86 SIERA. Given the youthfulness of their rotation, innings limits will likely come into play and that should benefit them all by letting them loose when they do pitch.
Sanchez and Lopez are already projected to have an ERA below four and throw more than 120 innings, Alcantara has a career ERA of 3.71, Hernandez had an xFIP of 3.54 and SIERA of 3.17 last year and we've already mentioned what Rogers did in 2020. They have an exciting rotation and while health will play a big part in this prediction, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that they all stay healthy enough to pitch 120 innings.
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