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Just when you thought it was over... this will officially conclude our Bold Predictions series for the fantasy baseball season.
Last year was the debut of my 10 bold predictions, and I think I did pretty well. But you should be the judge for yourself and review how I did before deciding how much stock to take in my 2017 predictions.
Now that the pressure is on to repeat, here are my 2017 BOLD predictions.
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Jeff Kahntroff's Bold Predictions for 2017
1) Matt Holliday will hit 30 homers.
Matt Holliday hasn’t hit 30 homers since 2007. There are a lot of options for playing time in New York after Greg Bird’s big spring and the signing of NL home run leader Chris Carter. Moreover, the past two years Holliday played only 110 and 73 games and combined for 24 homers. So why the bold? First, Holliday battled injuries the past two years and now appears healthy. More importantly, he is going from a park that was -17% from righty homers to one that is +21%. Furthermore, his batted ball profile last year (fly-ball rate, hard-hit rate, and pull%) was similar to his better years and put him on a 162-game pace of 29.5 homers. The park switch and better health will be enough to get Holliday over the 30-homer hump for the first time in a decade.
2) Jake Lamb will outperform Kyle Seager, who is being drafted 80 picks higher.
Why? In the first half last year, Lamb put up an astounding line of .291/20/49/61/3. In the second half, things got ugly when he only managed a line of .197/9/32/30/3. What should we make of these massive splits? Well, Lamb suffered a hand injury right around the all-star break. He also was coming off a season where he only played 110 games and may have worn down in 2017. Both of these factors suggest a better second-half in 2017. Even if we just look at last year, Lamb still posted a .249/29/81/91/6 line as opposed to Seager’s luck-aided line of .278/30/89/99/3 (see a fuller Seager analysis in my third-base ADP analysis, which can be found on my twitter along with my oother articles, @rotonails). With a step forward for Lamb and a less lucky 2017 for Seager, Lamb will come out ahead.
3) Daniel Murphy will finish top-two in MLB in RBIs.
Daniel Murphy was 12th in RBIs last year. To finish in the top two, Murphy would’ve had to pass Nolan Arenado (133 RBIs) or Edwin Encarnacion (127 RBIs). Murphy will be 32 on opening day and has never had more than 104 RBIs. So why the bold prediction? First, Murphy is well-known for improving his launch angle, leading to a playoff explosion in 2015 before a career high in home runs last year. He had 77 extra base hits in 142 games last year, and walked at his career rate of 6.0% (with fewer than 10.0% strikeouts), meaning he puts the ball in play. While the lineup could shift throughout the year, there are on-base machines who could hit in front of him, and they run the bases well. He will be there to knock them in, finishing in the top two in RBIs.
4) Joe Ross will win at least 15 games.
Joe Ross has 12 career wins. Last year, he threw 118.1 innings between the majors and minors. So why would I predict that he will win 15 games and have the innings to do so? As of June 26th last year, Joe Ross had a 3.11 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. On July 3rd, he was placed on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation. But now healthy, and with a career FIP of 3.46, ERA of 3.52, and a swinging strike rate of 11.2%, the 23-year-old is primed for a big year. Add to those facts that he is in a weaker division and ahead of a potent offense. Despite a down year from Bryce Harper, the Nationals were eighth in the majors in runs scored. Having added Adam Eaton (WRC+ of 115, 118 and 119 the last three years), Adam Lind (WRC+ of 92, 119, 142 and 132 the past four years), and expecting another 85 games from Trea Turner, the offense should be more than enough to put Ross in the win column on a regular basis. Moreover, his 150+ innings in 2015 suggest that he is ready to pitch enough innings to fulfill that promise and win at least 15 games.
5) Eduardo Rodriguez will outperform Zack Greinke, who is being selected 180 picks earlier.
E-Rod is a former highly-touted prospect (traded for Andrew Miller) who came onto the scene strong in 2015, with 21ks and one earned run in 20.2 innings over his first three starts. After not impressing for the rest of the year, and putting up a 8.59 ERA in the first half of 2016, many wrote him off. However, in the second half last year, he appeared to figure it out, posting a 3.24 ERA, 9.2K/9, a 1.13 WHIP and a 3.48 FIP. His trajectory is on the upswing, and with the uncertain health status of a number of the Red Sox starters, he should have his spot in the rotation locked down. On the other hand, Greinke is one year removed from signing a record-breaking six-year, $206.5 million contract. Despite that contract, he posted a 4.37 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 7.6K/9 while battling injuries. His velocity is down this spring, which does not instill confidence in a rebound. Moreover, even in his great 2013-2015 seasons, his strikeout rates weren’t elite and his FIP wasn’t much better than his 2011-2012 seasons, as I laid out here.
6) Dylan Bundy will outperform Matt Harvey, who is being drafted 120 picks higher.
As I outlined in my piece on Bundy this winter (https://dev.rotoballer.com/dylan-bundy-fantasy-baseball-breakout-candidate/364618), his stats last year are deceiving due to coming off injury and switching roles though the year. What is important is that he has a great three-pitch mix (mid-90s fastball, mid-80s change, and mid-70s curve) and has added a fourth pitch into the equation (cutter/slider). Before he apparently wore down, he kept hitters off balance and missed bats. Last year’s experience and a rotation spot to open the year should give Bundy the stamina to fulfill the promise he showed. On the other hand, Matt Harvey’s velocity dropped last year and he posted an ugly 4.86 ERA, 7.38K/9, and a 1.47 WHIP before being shut down with a shoulder injury. After having surgery, his velocity is down even further this spring. The arrow is pointing in the wrong direction.
7) Jose Reyes will outperform Troy Tulowitzki, who is being drafted 130 slots higher.
Ahhhh…..the battle of two players who were once traded for each other. Reyes played 143 and 116 games in 2014 and 2015 before a suspension-shortened season of 60 games last year. Tulowitzki played 131, 128, and 91 the last three years. So, both carry similar playing time risks. Tulo is 32 and Reyes is 33. Those are the similarities. What are the differences? In 655 at bats in Toronto, Tulo has hit .250/29/85/96/2. In his 60 games with the Mets, Reyes had a 162-game pace of .267/22/122/65/24. Reyes had a higher average, more runs plus runs batted in, and way more steals with only a few less homers. While Tulo is likely to have more power going forward, Reyes should continue to swipe a lot of bags (he was only caught twice last year), have a better average, and match Tulo’s run production. The low average and lack of speed cap Tulo’s upside, making Reyes the smarter pick.
8) Jacob deGrom will be a top 7 fantasy pitcher in 2017, despite being drafted as SP18.
DeGrom lost 1.5 mph on his average fastball velocity from 2015 to 2016. Since, he had surgery and is throwing harder this spring. With his velocity back, what should we expect? In 2014, deGrom posted a 2.69 ERA, 9.26K/9 and a 1.14 WHIP. In 2015, he was even better: 2.54ERA, 9.66K/9, and a 0.98 WHIP. Even with diminished velocity, he was still able to hang in during the first half of 2016, with a 2.61 ERA, 8.81K/9, and 1.11 WHIP. Apparently healthy again, deGrom can get back to honing his craft. Expect a 2.60ish ERA with more than a strikeout per inning and a WHIP around 1.00, and you will find yourself a top seven pitcher.
9) Lance McCullers will be a top 20 SP in 2017 despite being drafted as SP41.
In 36 career starts, McCullers has 10.23K/9, a 3.22 ERA and a 3.16 FIP. After striking out more than a batter per inning in his rookie year, he increased his swinging strike rate to 13.0% last year, whiffing a whopping 11.78 batters per nine innings. As for run support, his team added Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick, Nori Aoki and Brian McCann, and will have a full season of budding star Alex Bregman. Expect a low ERA, an elite strikeout rate, and lots of wins. The only question McCullers presents, other than his health, is his WHIP. As he matures, his WHIP should improve (despite taking a step backward last year). That improvement starts this year, leading to a top 20 performance from McCullers.
10) Francisco Liriano will strike out 200 batters and log an ERA under 3.50.
Liriano is coming off a year in which he posted a 4.69 ERA and 168 strikeouts, mostly in the NL. Switching to the AL East and the hitter-friendly Rogers’ Centre, with Jose Bautista as part of his outfield defense (instead of Marte and Polanco in the corners), why should we expect such improvement? As outlined in my AL overvalued/undervalued pitchers’ piece (https://dev.rotoballer.com/overvalued-and-undervalued-adps-for-al-starting-pitchers/373325), in 248 career innings pitching to Russell Martin, Liriano has a 2.94 ERA, 9.2k/9 and an OPS against of .621. Last year, he pitched more than two innings to five catchers. He had a 3.04 ERA and 9.3k/9 with Martin; he had ERAs of 5.97, 5.52, 5.02, and 4.58 with the other catchers. Pitching to Martin this year, he will rediscover his old ways. After all, we are supposed to go bold here.
