Jon Anderson's Third Base Tiered Rankings and Projections

2 years ago by Jon Anderson

We're really getting close to the draft season now, and we're firmly on our way through the different positions, ranking and tiering off the top-300 or so players.

Today, we look at third base. Typically, this has been a pretty heavy position full of big-time hitters. The top of the ranks is still that, we have a few of the game's best hitters here. What we don't have is many steals or much depth. After the top three tiers, you really aren't able to feel super confident with your pick. You can only cover so many positions with your first handful of picks, but third base does seem like a good place to get someone early.

Let's break down the third base fantasy baseball rankings tiers and see what we have to work with!

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Tier One - The Elite

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Jose Ramirez	1	4	633	100	35	99	25	.270

The lone man on top. Ramirez is one of only two players at this position projecting for more than 20 steals. He does that while also giving you a great supply of runs, homers, and RBI. The one slight hole in his game is the batting average, but you can see the "median" projection of .270 here is still pretty good in today's league. J-Ram is elite.

Tier Two

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Manny Machado	2	22	650	93	32	101	10	.275
Rafael Devers	3	16	647	99	39	106	5	.281

And just like that, the steals are gone. You can still get 5-10 from these two names, but the real appeal here is that these are two of the league's top power bats, and they both manage strikeouts very well. They can put up a really good batting average with some BABIP luck, and both are great bets for 35 homers and an easy 100 RBI.

Tier Three

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Austin Riley	4	46	618	86	31	94	0	.271
Nolan Arenado	5	63	644	83	31	97	2	.258
Kris Bryant	6	88	587	84	23	72	7	.257
Alex Bregman	7	86	611	84	25	84	2	.268

I nearly put Riley in Tier Two; I think he's pretty darn similar to Machado and Devers. The thing that kept him out of there was the lack of sample size and the full lack of steals. It is really tough to get a steals projection of zero, you don't see it very often.

The rest of those three names are pretty similar. All were previously first-round guys in fantasy, but have struggled a bit in recent years. Arenado is great for power numbers, but won't steal and will probably hit below .270 for the rest of his career outside of Coors Field. Bryant has more upside than the rest of the group with some steals ability, and Bregman is a fine consolation prize at this price - although there are real questions about his power potential these days.

Tier Four

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Anthony Rendon	8	104	574	76	23	81	1	.272
Ke'Bryan Hayes	9	140	600	77	16	63	12	.267
Adalberto Mondesi	10	62	493	65	16	55	42	.244
DJ LeMahieu	11	108	645	85	14	64	4	.282

Rendon could certainly have a bounce-back healthy season and end up in Tier Two next year, but he has really struggled since joining the Angels. Not only has he struggled to stay healthy, he just hasn't been a great power source with them. You can see that evidenced by his low 23 homer projection. He's just not a game-changing fantasy bat with the lower power output and no steals.

The upside bats are Hayes and Mondesi, but honestly, I'm not sure why you'd want to mess around with Mondesi at this point - but I get it if you get absolutely no steals early on. LeMahieu is a fine source of runs and batting average but really does not have much else in his game.

Tier Five

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Luis Urias	12	150	547	68	19	65	5	.251
Justin Turner	13	156	549	77	23	78	2	.280
Yoan Moncada	14	141	616	79	19	70	4	.260
Josh Donaldson	15	202	565	79	28	77	1	.248

I much prefer this tier, relative to price, as compared to Tier Four. I think Urias is a guy that will really have a nice year here with his contact and power abilities, but the ceiling is relatively low. Turner had one of his best years at the plate at age 36, showing off really great power while still hitting for a great batting average. Eventually, age will catch up with him, but I'm not sure it's this year. Donaldson hit plenty of lasers last year, but isn't quite an everyday player at this point and has had all kinds of troubles with injuries. As for Moncada, he's pretty much a "blah" player right now - but there's still hope for some upside to be realized at just the age of 26.

Tier Six

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Eduardo Escobar	16	186	590	71	23	79	2	.243
Ryan McMahon	17	161	582	76	25	81	5	.254
Matt Chapman	18	181	613	77	29	78	3	.223
Eugenio Suarez	19	192	551	73	32	82	1	.229
Abraham Toro	20	257	486	57	15	57	7	.249
Jeimer Candelario	21	230	607	71	20	70	1	.257

You're really giving up batting average with most of these names, but you can get some homers from this group. Chapman and Suarez have been all-or-nothing bats for a few years now, and the rest of these guys just don't do anything particularly well. It's not a tier you want to fill your starting spot with, but some fine utility or bench options here.

Tier Seven

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Gio Urshela	22	261	485	54	15	59	1	.265
Alec Bohm	23	284	487	59	13	56	5	.264
Luis Arraez	24	303	551	67	5	50	3	.299
Cavan Biggio	25	298	484	60	15	51	7	.229
Jonathan Villar	26	292	451	56	13	43	16	.247
Yandy Diaz	27	378	473	58	12	54	1	.272
Mike Moustakas	28	365	441	54	21	61	1	.240
Joey Wendle	29	355	457	55	8	45	8	.254
Patrick Wisdom	30	315	508	63	26	69	5	.218

And here's "the rest". There's some upside with young guys like Bohm and Biggio, and some boring but steady producers in Diaz and Moustakas. I don't think any of these are start-worthy fantasy players, but you can pick them for your bench and hope for the best.

My Third Base Strategy

Ramirez is my #3 overall player right now just because of the steals. I like Riley quite a bit as well as I think he's going to end up really close to Devers and Machado this year and is much cheaper. I also still like the buy-low on Rendon and Bregman.

As for late-round picks, there's no one I'm really excited about, but I do expect to have some shares of Urias and Donaldson in the middle rounds. I'm also not opposed to grabbing a lottery ticket on Bohm or Biggio very, very late. Thanks for checking out the third base tiers!

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