Jose Quintana (SP, CHW) - 2016 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

TARGET: ~140

CURRENT ADP: 178

ANALYSIS: Quick, what do you think Quintana’s ERA was last year? If you were anywhere close to the actual number (3.36), you probably owned him. Guess what? His 2014 ERA was even lower at 3.32. He’s pitched 200 innings in each of his past three seasons, but has also only recorded nine wins in each of them.

It is more fluky things like that which keep Quintana below the radar, and his being the 50^th starter off the board means there is a ton of value. While he won’t ever strike out 200 in a year, he’s still got healthy K numbers (averaging 173 in his past three seasons) which won’t burn you. In each of those years his ground ball rate has improved and his walk rate has dropped. He is going into his age-27 season, prime territory.

The bite here is that Quintana plays on the White Sox, which means he gets burned by a defense that finished 28^th in the league in Defensive Runs Saved (-39 for the record) and pitches in a park which is known for its home run potential. It’s not entirely fluky that he’s failed to break into the double digits in the W category.

That being said, you have a pitcher whose inherent skillset is much greater than his ADP reflects. If he turns in a 14-15 win year, I bet the baseball world will wake up quickly. Get ahead of that and draft Quintana higher than his lousy ADP would dictate.