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Yesterday's slate had some exciting moments, like the NC Dinos pulling off a comeback win thanks to a ninth inning, game-tying two-run homer before a solo walk off home run in the 10th. Luckily we targeted the over in that game and it had already hit but for some, these are the moments us sports bettors hate. In an ideal world all of our bets hit without ease, but as a sports fan looking for anything to cling to, it was very exciting to watch.
- Tuesday, May 11 Picks: 2-1
- 2020 KBO Season: 9-3
As the season takes shape, I'm seeing one sure trend and it's that bullpens are far more volatile than a major league bullpen. This is a bit eye-opening as it seems the juiced baseball from 2018 has also returned and home runs are being hit relatively regularly. Just another thing to watch with each day that passes.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO advice, analysis, and best bets for Wednesday, May 13th at 5:30am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Samsung Lions at Kiwoom Heroes (-188)
O/U: 8.5
Probable Pitchers
Samsung: David Buchanan
Kiwoom: Won-tae Choi
Samsung's first seven games have been all over the spectrum of outcomes but it's all rounding out to about average. With a -4 run differential, things could certainly be worse with a 2-5 record. David Buchanan got shelled in his first KBO start, allowing five runs over six frames while striking out a pair and walking one. Seemingly following the trends of his career with the Phillies, he'll need to limit hits and walks if he wants to give his team a chance. It's clear the pitching is the main reason for a serviceable run differential, as the team is hitting .198 and a .633 OPS, both of which are the league's worst. Designated hitter Dong-yup Kim is the only regular starter with over a .300 average and also leads the team with two homers and six RBI.
The Heroes are quietly the hottest team in the league, winning six of their first seven and each of their last four. The only reason you don't read much about them is because they've only scored five or more runs once since Opening Day. However, at 6-1 with a +15 run differential and a league-best 2.76 team ERA, Kiwoom is in a great place to continue trending upward. Won-tae Choi gets the ball on Wednesday. He was an inning shy of a quality start on May 7, but scattering nine hits will do that. Choi is a pitch-to-contact guy who does a good job keeping the ball in the park. Offensively, Kiwoom has struggled a bit but the talent is there. Byung-ho Park and Ha-seong Kim combined for 52 homers and 202 RBI a year ago, so it's only a matter of time before they start clicking.
KBO overs have been popular, but with both of these teams offensive struggles, I'm looking at pitching. Kiwoom wins that battle here and overall just has a better team.
Pick: Kiwoom - 1.5
Kia Tigers (-122) at Hanwha Eagles
O/U: 9
Probable Pitchers
KT: Min-woo Lee
NC: Si-hwan Jang
Kia is still searching for an identity but Tuesday's ninth inning 2-1 win over the Eagles was a good start. The pitching is pretty boom-or-bust, ranking second in strikeouts (51), but also second to last in walks (29). Wednesday's starter Min-woo Lee might not help that cause. Over his last six starts, dating back to last year, he's 1-4 with 21 earned runs over 30.2 innings pitched. He's spent the majority of his career out of the bullpen, so don't be surprised if he has a relatively short lease. At the plate, Preston Tucker and Sun-bin Kim are hitting at over a .400 clip with the former driving in 11 runs already. Their team OPS was up to .796 before Tuesday's game, so there is definitely room for growth here.
After a 2-1 starter, the Eagles have dropped their last four including Tuesday's game to Kia. Pitching doesn't seem to be the problem, as they're one of three teams who hasn't allowed 10 runs in a single game yet; their 3.81 ERA is second in the KBO. Wednesday's starter Si-hwan Jang is in his first year with Hanwha after spending the last three seasons with Lotte. His first season as a full-time starter was 2019 and he went 6-13 with a 4.95 ERA. In his 125.1 innings, he held down a 19 K% but was hampered by a 10 BB% and yet somehow that was the second lowest of his career. Offensively they haven't been very patient at the plate with just 17 walks, and their RISP average of .240 won't get the job done. There's a trio of hitters batting .348 or higher but no one has higher than five RBI to this point.
Neither of these offenses are very potent right now, but these pitching matchups are too good to pass on. Both Lee and Jang have a history of struggles and professional hitters should be able to exploit bad pitching.
Pick: Over 9
SK Wyverns (-122) at LG Twins
O/U: 9.5 | ESPN2 at 5:30am EST
Probable Pitchers
SK: Ricardo Pinto
LG: Chan-kyu Im
SK got scuttled early by the Twins on Tuesday and it seems that Nick Kingham's KBO career isn't off to a great start. Next, they'll turn to Ricardo Pinto on Wednesday. The 26-year-old former Phillies and Rays farmhand wen 6.2 innings, allowing just one runs on three hits with three strikeouts and walks apiece en route to his first KBO win last Wednesday. He had a rough turn in the big leagues, but his 95 mph fastball mixed with a changeup that carried a .198 xBA in 2017 should prove useful. Dong-min Han hit his fourth long ball on Tuesday and he's carrying the Wyverns offense right now, but they'll need Jamie Romak to start stepping it up at the plate before they get too far in a hole.
LG finds themselves on television at the right time, scoring 19 runs in their previous two games that both resulted in wins. On Wednesday, Chan-kyu Im finally gets his first shot of 2020 after his original start got rained out and then the Twins skipped his start. That's no surprise as he's averaged a 5.13 ERA, a .328 BABIP, and a 9 BB% over his three-year career. However, a 19 K% does show he presents some upside. The Twins offense should be there to back him up; however, thanks to their .834 OPS and 24 extra-base hits which are tied for the most in the league.
This game likely won't be as entertaining as Tuesday's was but it's on TV so I want to give you a reason to wake up and watch baseball. Pinto was strong as a starter in the minors but started getting used out of the bullpen and everything went downhill. He's being given a chance to start and I see him taking full advantage.
Pick: SK Wyverns ML -122
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