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KBO Betting Picks (5/20/20) - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

Nothing like starting off a Tuesday morning, bright and early, with a little gambling sweat. All three games kept us on an edge through the later inning. The KT Wiz bullpen nearly gave me a heart attack, almost blowing a 13-1 lead in the seventh inning.

One true constant is that no lead is safe in the KBO. There is a hashtag I've seen scrolling through Twitter called #KBONess and it now I see why. These bullpens are as volatile as my D3 team was my senior year (ducks for cover if any of my teammates read this).

Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for Wednesday, May 20th at 530am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.

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LG Twins at Samsung Lions

O/U: 9.5 | ESPN at 530am EST 

Probable Pitchers
LG: Tyler Wilson (0-1, 7.84)
Samsung: Chae-heung Choi (2-0, 3.27 ERA)

LG has shown bits of inconsistency over the past five games, although they won four of those five. Offensively, there was a bit of a dry spell where they scored just 11 runs in three games, which followed a 14-run outburst on May 13. Consider it the game of baseball, as they're still hitting .291 as a team with an .831 OPS and 76 runs scored (6.3 runs per game). Roberto Ramos' five homers and 10 RBI are a big piece of the puzzle, but Hyun-soo Kim and Eun-seong Chae have been key in production as well. We get Tyler Wilson back on the bump after showing a mixed bag through his first two starts. He's allowed nine earned runs over 10.3 innings, but seven came in his first start back from coronavirus quarantine. In his last start against KS, he went six strong, allowing two runs on just four hits while striking out seven and walking two. This is the Wilson KBO fans remember from the last two seasons.

Samsung has been a mixed bag so far. While they've lost four straight, they won the earlier Kiwoom series by a 15:8 run differential. They're hitting just .235 with a .666 OPS as a team, which are both only better than SK's horrid offense. Sang-su Kim is the only regular starter that is hitting over .300 while Don-yub Kim is at .296 with two homers and a team-leading 12 RBI. On the bump for the Lions is Chae-heung Choi. The 25-year-old has been a bright spot for the staff through two starts. After not allowing any runs to Kia, he gave up four to a potent Kiwoom offense his last time out. The southpaw, Choi, will have a matchup advantage over half the the Twins lineup.

Wilson got back to form in his last start and Choi is an up-and-comer with an advantage at home. I think LG will win, but see it being 5-2 type game.

Pick: Under 9.5

 

NC Dinos at Doosan Bears (-130)

O/U: 9 | 530am EST 

Probable Pitchers
NC: Chang-mo Koo (2-0, 0.00 ERA)
Doosan: Chris Flexen (2-0, 3.75 ERA)

NC almost blew a comfortable 5-0 lead in the seventh, before shutting it down to win 5-4 on Tuesday. Mike Wright was solid through the first four before a long fifth inning elevated his pitch count and chased him from the game. Next we get Chang-mo Koo who has been the hottest arm in the league. 2-0 with no earned runs allowed and an 18/3 K/BB. This is no surprise, as the lefty has held at least a 19.4 K% in all four of his previous KBO seasons. The Dinos offense has carried their weight offensively, leading the league with 18 home runs. Their .836 OPS is in the top half of the league, but their 90 strikeouts could come back to hurt them down the road. Seven hitters have six RBI or more and one of them isn't Aaron Altherr. If they cant get their foreign import going, the league will really need to look out for the Dinos.
This will be just the fourth game Doosan gets at home, so I'm sure they're eager to get the ball rolling. The offense is a good place to start, thanks to a .333 average and .902 OPS, which both lead the KBO. Meanwhile their 86 runs scored and 47 extra-base hits are second. From a personnel perspective, not much has changed in the last day, Jose Fernandez, Jae-il Oh, and Jae-hwan Kim continue to rake. Chris Flexen gets his third turn through the rotation and he's been solid to start his KBO career. Five earned runs through 12 innings has led to a 2-0 record, while a 12/2 K/BB shows just how filthy he's been. The former Met had issues with control in America, so it is yet to be seen if he's truly made the proper adjustments.

I'm quite surprised that NC are the underdogs here. Koo is the best pitcher in the league at this moment and Flexen will be on just his third start in Korea. This seems like too good of value to pass up on. Don't forget that Doosan has one of the worst bullpens in the league at a 7.17 ERA, so even if they can get to Koo, all bets are off in the later innings.

Pick: NC Dinos ML +104

 

Lotte Giants (-127) at Kia Tigers

O/U: 9

Probable Pitchers
Lotte: Dan Straily (1-1, 2.12 ERA)
Kia: Drew Gagnon (0-2, 6.10 ERA)

Lotte got the business from Kia on Tuesday thanks to the seven runs the Tigers scored through four frames. Compared to the first six games, the Giants offense has slowed down quite considerably. They scored 42 runs in the first six and went 5-1, whereas the last six, they've scored just 26 and have gone 2-4. They have the lineup to make noise, with six hitters driving in at least seven runs, but the hot start has seem to have worn off a bit. Former big leaguer Dan Straily will try to get them going on the hill. The 31-year-old has allowed just four runs over three starts and has a 19/6 K/BB. He's clearly done a good job limiting big innings and has allowed just five extra-base hits.

Tuesday was fair to Kia, putting up seven runs on a 19-year-old pitcher. Sun-bin Kim, Preston Tucker, and Ji-wan Na carried the offense, and the .778 team OPS isn't bad, but the 15 double plays they've hit into are the ultimate rally killers. Until they can prove to be better with runners on base, they'll struggle with consistency. Drew Gagnon is slowly working his way to having a solid start. While he still hasn't finished the sixth inning through two starts, he improved from five strikeouts in his KBO debut to punching out nine last time out. He has a dynamite changeup with a 92mph fastball that has shown it can fool hitters.

This should be a fantastic matchup on the mound. Lotte's offense is in a bit of a bind recently, while Kia has struggled with consistency. Give me an old fashioned pitchers duel in a league where these happen so few and far between.

Pick: Under 9

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