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Welcome back, RotoBallers! These last few months without our usual professional sports have been rough, but we can take solace in the fact that DFS contests haven't stopped and KBO has provided us with some exciting content in what has become an unusually empty summer (sincere apologies to UFC and PGA).
My general strategy is to keep an eye on the betting lines found at Bovada and identify potential starting pitchers and hitter stacks to target from there. If you have the ability to stay up until an hour before lock, do yourself a huge favor and check out RotoWire's daily lineups to make sure you're playing guys who are actually starting. Lastly, keep an eye on MyKBOStats.com for updated weather projections.
Reminder: the FanDuel and DraftKings slates lock at 5:30 AM (ET) on Thursday, July 9, 2020. Follow me @kringstad19 (and my fellow KBO analysts @ehatch1990DFS or @MarkStrausberg. You can also find our betting picks here).
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KBO DFS Pitchers
We followed up the Chang-mo Koo Chalk Day on 7/7 with a Dan Straily Chalk Day on 7/8, and both plays worked out wonderfully for the masses who employed them. It's almost like this is too easy or something. [Spoiler alert -> it is not]. The 7/9 slate seems to have one starting pitcher who stands out above the rest, but it's not quite as clear-cut as the past two slates.
Eric Jokisch - KIW Starting P ($30 FanDuel, $9500 DraftKings)
*Checks notes* Wait, we have to pay more for Jokisch than we did for Koo on FanDuel? In a tougher matchup? Interesting, as Jokisch has spectacular numbers on the season and really doesn't have a glaring weakness on paper. The only pause for concern is paying top dollar for his just-slightly-above-average strikeout rate, which ranks fifth on the slate. He's in great form as he's 2-0 in his last three starts, allowing just one earned run and notching 15 strikeouts in the process. Samsung is a top-half offense and they've been really hot over their last 10 games, but Jokisch is the top arm on the slate and he's favored by 1.5 runs in the game with the lowest projected total (8.5 runs).
Drew Gagnon- KIA Starting P ($25 Fanduel, $8100 DraftKings)
Gagnon stands out as a great value play on both sites. He's 5-3 on the season with a 3.77 ERA and a slate-leading 2.93 FIP. He also leads the slate with a sparkling 23.4% K%, which is a key stat to evaluate when it comes to fantasy upside. Gagnon usually pitches into the seventh inning, which gives him a great shot at notching a quality start and win bonus as KIA is favored by 1.5 runs in a game with a projected total of 9.5 runs. KT is an explosive offense that is certainly capable of hitting bombs, but that also comes with an above-average strikeout rate as a team (it also helps that Gagnon holds a 0.16 HR/9 rate). He can be confidently trotted out as a SP1 or SP2.
Raul Alcantara - DOO Starting P ($28 FanDuel, $9200 DraftKings)
Alcantara is up there with the top arms on the slate, but he's pricey and facing the dangerous LG Twins. These factors should drive his ownership down, making him a solid contrarian play off of Jokisch in tournaments. He's 7-1 with a 3.45 ERA that's backed up by a 3.88 FIP, and his amazing 5.08 K/BB ratio ranks second among qualified pitchers in the KBO (behind Koo). The LG Twins are an elite road-hitting team, but ranks just fifth in runs per game (5.53) and sixth home runs per game (0.91) overall. Doosan's home park ranks as the most favorable park for pitchers, and the Bears are favored by 1.5 runs with a projected 9.5-run total.
*Longshot GPP Play*
Beom-su Kim - HAN Starting P ($24 FanDuel, $5500 DraftKings)
Usually, "target the pitcher facing Hanwha" is a great strategy. However, Adrian Sampson has been terrible and couldn't put up points against the Eagles in his last start. We're going in the other direction this time. Kim is making just his fourth start of the year after spending most of the season as a reliever. In his three starts, he has held Doosan, Samsung, and NC to just five earned runs, and he's notched 15 strikeouts in the process. He also issued nine walks in those starts, inflating his season rate to an egregious 6.43 BB/9. His resulting FIP and WHIP averages are not pretty, but he holds a 3.60 ERA and a solid 20.1% K% in his somewhat limited sample size. Lotte is a bottom-tier offense as they score just 4.81 runs per game and hit 0.79 home runs per game. They're also significantly worse on the road (.625 winning % at home vs. .345 winning % on the road). Kim has exceeded 102 pitches in his last two starts and is worth a shot in the dark as a GPP play.
Note: Kim is a much better value as a SP2 on DraftKings, though he's still worth a GPP shot on FanDuel.
KBO Top Hitter Stacks
Ideally, you'd like to target offenses in the highest run total games who are facing pitchers (and bullpens) that are likely to give up a crooked number. With SK's stadium ranking as the best park factor on the slate and two exploitable arms on the mound, an NC/SK game stack could be quite useful. Kiwoom is in an attractive spot as well. Lastly, we'll take a look at some value bats in order to help fit in Jokisch and/or Alcantara.
NC Dinos
The Dinos are still the top offense in the league as they rank first in runs per game (6.41) and home runs per game (1.46). They're facing Ricardo Pinto, who has mediocre season statistics and comes into this game in terrible form. He holds a low 12.8% K%, but oddly gives up the least home runs on the slate at 0.15 HR/9. Bank on the Dinos getting to Pinto, especially in the top park for offensive production.
Aaron Altherr ($15, $5400) - The ex-Phillie is having a monster season at the plate, slashing .305/.375/.604 with 14 home runs, 49 RBI, 39 runs scored, and 10 steals. He's hitting fourth or fifth in the order these days, which is ideal in this potent lineup. Get him into your NC stacks.
Sung-Bum Na ($18, $5600) - Na leads the team with 15 homers and is right behind Altherr with a .294 ISO. Altherr is the better value, but Na is just as likely to put up a slate-breaking performance.
Eui-Ji Yang ($13, $5700) - The Dinos catcher is slashing .301/.367/.555 with eight home runs on the season.
Suk-Min Park ($10, $4600) - Suk-Min Park provides great value for a player who has hit eight homers and holds a .410 OBP for the season.
Min-Woo Park ($12, $5200) - Min-Woo Park doesn't provide much of a power element, but his .313 batting average and above-average speed play well in this lineup. He gains value if he's hitting in his usual spot at the top of the batting order.
SK Wyverns
The Wyverns aren't a good offense and barely ever hit homers, but that doesn't mean they can't put up numbers in favorable matchups. They have a golden opportunity today, as NC's Sung-Young Choi is making just his fifth start of the year and holds the slate's highest ERA, FIP, and HR/9. His 8.6% K% is also extremely low. SK's ballpark ranks as the best on the slate for offense, meaning this game could easily turn into a high-scoring affair.
Jeong Choi ($14, $5300) - Jeong Choi is hitting .282/.397/.754 with two homers, but he only has 88 PA's. Romak seems to be the better value at $1 less on FanDuel.
Jamie Romak ($13, $4500) - Romak is the one Wyverns hitter that we can feel confident in, looking at his stats. He has 10 homers on the year to go a long with a .273/.380/.495 slash line. He should be a part of any SK stack or mini-stack.
Ji-Hoon Choi ($5, $2900) - Ji-Hoon Choi, the team's usual leadoff hitter, ranks second on the team in runs scored (16) and holds the highest batting average (.307).
Jun-Hyeok Oh ($5, $2500) - Oh has hit in the two-spot for the last five games. If he's in the same spot, he's a amazing value play despite his unimpressive season-long numbers. Keep an eye on the starting lineups.
Kiwoom Heroes
The Heroes are facing Samsung's Jung-Hyun Baek, who holds a 5.23 ERA, 5.71 FIP, and a slate-leading 2.28 HR/9. This game has the lowest projected run total, but that could be because the odds are factoring in Jokisch shutting down the Samsung offense. Kiwoom has the power bats to exploit Baek's weaknesses.
Byung-Ho Park ($14, $4600) - Byung-Ho Park leads the team with a .272 ISO and 15 home runs, and is tied for the team-lead with 42 RBI and 36 BB. He has a low .233 batting average, but he's a great bet to go yard tonight.
Jung-Hoo Lee ($14, $4800) - Lee is second on the team with a .251 ISO, and he's fourth in the KBO with a .358 batting average.
Dong-Won Park ($9, $5500) - Dong-Won Park is a solid play at catcher on DraftKings as he's third on Kiwoom with a .236 ISO.
Ha-Seong Kim ($16, $5800) - Ha-Seong Kim has impressive numbers across the board. He holds a .289/.401/.502 slashline with 10 homers, 40 RBI, 46 runs scored, and nine steals. He's expensive, but that should keep his ownership low.
Keon-Chang Seo ($11, $4700) - Seo is the Heroes' usual leadoff hitter and, like Kim, he's productive in many areas. He's hitting .292/.397/.446 with 5 home runs, 25 RBI, 37 runs scored, and 12 steals. He's also $5 cheaper on FanDuel.
Other stacks/hitters to consider:
- A contrarian stack against Jokisch isn't the worst idea in GPP's. Samsung is 7-3 over their last 10 games and put up seven runs and 13 runs in their last two contests, so you're really just betting on them staying hot. Ja-Wook Koo ($10, $4300), Sang-Su Kim ($8, $4500), Hae-Min Park ($7, $2600) and Won-Seok Lee ($8, $3600) are the top options.
- LG's Ji-Hwan Oh ($9, $3600), Chun-Woong Lee ($8, $2900), Kang-Nam Yoo ($10, $4700) make sense as salary-savers, as long as you're not starting Alcantara.
- Tyler Wilson hasn't been overly impressive, so mini-stacks or one-offs from Doosan are in play as well. Kyoung-Min Hur ($10, $3700) and Joo-Hwan Choi ($13, $3400) stand out as nice values.
Good luck with your KBO DFS lineups tonight and thanks for checking out my KBO DFS lineup picks here at RotoBaller!
