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Kris Bryant was one of the biggest names on the free-agent market in the 2021-2022 offseason, and the lockout caused a major delay in his signing.
Things finally got figured out on Wednesday, when the Rockies inked Bryant to a huge seven-year deal that included a no-trade clause. This was a bit of a surprise move, as most people figured on Bryant ending up on a contending team that did not just recently let another franchise third baseman walk away, but here we are.
Any time a hitter goes to Colorado, the fantasy impact is enormous. Let's talk about it.
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Kris Bryant's Up and Down Career
It seemed like Bryant was going to be a top-five hitter in the game after his first couple of seasons, but the road has been a bumpy one since then. Since 2017, he has been more of a "good" hitter than a "great" one, as he has not been able to repeat the .900+
The fantasy results were actually pretty strong in 2021, and they may have been going overlooked before this signing. Bryant split time between the Cubs and Giants, two less-than-friendly home ballparks, and hit .265/.353/.481 with 25 homers, 73 RBI, and 10 steals. That's a very useful fantasy season, but Bryant's recent lackluster performances had his draft stock heading in the wrong direction. That should not be the case anymore.
The Coors Impact
Since professional baseball has been played in Colorado, their home stadium has been the most hitter-friendly park in the league. If you are reading fantasy baseball articles online, you already know this. The thin air results in batted balls carrying longer and further, which made the designers move the fences further back than a normal park, which made for a massive outfield.
Coors Field is good for home runs, to be sure, but the biggest effect is on batting average and slugging percentage. Here is a visual of batting average broken down by batted ball type and stadium.
What you see there is a big boost in the expected batting average when a ball is hit in Coors Field vs. the rest of the league. You see that the biggest difference is in fly balls. The league batting average on fly balls in Coors is .331, so basically you have a one-third chance of getting a hit if you hit a fly ball. Elsewhere, that number is way down at .279. That's pretty staggering and will result in Kris Bryant racking up hits at a higher rate this season.
Looking at slugging percentage, we see more of the same.
Hitters slugging percentages went up nearly 40 points on line drives and almost one-hundred(!) points on fly balls. Coors benefits fly-ball hitters the most. Last season, Bryant hit 38% of his batted balls on the ground, six points better than the league average of 44%. That's a good sign, and there's little doubt that he will prioritize repeating or even improving on that in 2021 given his new home park.
Projection Change
Before the signing, ATC had Bryant projected for a .265/.353/.481 slash line with 25 homers and 73 RBI. The move to Coors Field should boost that batting average projection at least 10 points, and the OBP and SLG projections should come up significantly as well. I'm not sure homers and RBI should move much, given that Coors doesn't help a ton with homers and the Rockies lineup in front of Bryant is pretty pathetic.
My new projection would be something like .278/.365/.505 with 27 homers and 75 RBI, which makes Bryant a top-five option at the hot corner for the 2022 season.
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