RADIO
Yesterday's starting pitcher rankings involved a tier-by-tier analysis of mostly higher-floor pitchers in the top five tiers. Today, we review the upside players later in the draft - the ADP values. These are the pitchers you can hopefully brag about at the end of the year for getting in the later rounds - the guys we like to call draft day steals and in some cases sleepers. Anyone can pick one of the top few pitchers, but finding diamonds in the rough is what can make fantasy baseball drafts especially exciting.
Before getting into my targets, I will briefly point out Alex Cobb as a player I feel is being rated too highly unless you are in a keeper league. Cobb is a great pitcher, but even if he has no setbacks, he will not be back until after the All-Star break. And there are often setbacks. And pitchers often struggle initially when coming off of Tommy John surgery. Even if you have a DL slot, you likely will have another player you will want to use there before July. With that out of the way, below are some quick hits on players outside of the top five tiers who I rate more highly than my fellow rankers.
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Later Round Starting Pitcher Targets: Rankings Analysis
Verlander had core surgery before the 2014 season and performed poorly. While it's possible that was not the reason for his struggles, his track record outside of that year suggests it likely was. After rebounding in 2015 despite battling a triceps injury, Verlander could be a true five category performer in front of a potent lineup. Removing his 2014, his ERAs from 2009-2015 are 3.45, 3.37, 2.40, 2.64, 3.46, and 3.36; WHIPs are 1.07, 1.16, 0.92, 1.06, 1.31, and 1.09; K/9 are 10.1, 8.8, 9.0, 9.0, 8.9, 7.6. After returning from his injury last year, he posted a 2.80 ERA, 1.00WHIP, and 8.3 K/9 in his last 15 starts.
In 19 starts in Tampa, Smyly has a 2.52 ERA, 9.5 K/9, and a 1.00 WHIP. He has been a different pitcher during his Tampa tenure, despite having respectable numbers throughout his entire brief career. His issue is health. He had shoulder surgery last year and pitched only 67 innings. His inning limit will hurt his value, but his realistic potential as a sub-3.00ERA pitcher with a strikeout per inning and a 1.00 WHIP makes him a player to target nonetheless.
Matz is a risk due to his limited track record and his injuries last year. But, he has upside. In 90 innings in the PCL last year, he struck out 9.37/9 and had a 2.19 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP. In 35 major league innings, he struck out 8.58/9 and had a 2.27 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP. At his age (24) and with his limited experience, he is capable of continuing to improve and putting up a good season. Given his limited track record and injuries, he is not ranked higher.
As is the case with most players in this area, Fiers is another risk. His primary risk factors are ending up in the bullpen for a period of time and that he has never performed the way he can for an entire season. Nevertheless, Fiers' career numbers as a starter are 22-27, 3.60 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and a 1.20 WHIP. With the exception of 2013, he has never had an ERA over 3.89 or a K/9 under 9.0, and his WHIP has never been higher than 1.26. Despite the switch to the AL, he is joining an Astros' team with plus outfield defense. As the season approaches, if he is looking to be in the rotation, he's worth a shot as an upside play, which is what we are after at this point.
Rodon is another risky play. He's a recent top prospect with big strikeout ability. He has had issues walking too many batters in his short career, but he is 23 and players tend to improve their control at that point on their aging curve. After the break last year, he took a big step forward by trimming his walks, reducing his WHIP from 1.61 to 1.29. On the year, he had a 3.75 ERA with a 9.0 K/9 and a 1.44 WHIP. He is a player who could take a step forward this year. If he cuts his walks further, he could have a serviceable WHIP to go with a good K rate and ERA.
Kenta Maeda
What will the Dodgers, or you, get from Maeda? Who knows? And to me, that's a good answer here. As I said, at this point I am drafting for upside. Tanaka and Darvish have recently shown success coming from the Japanese League, as did Kuroda. While Maeda is not the strikeout pitcher that Tanaka and Darvish are, why not take a shot on upside here? What if he can be a control, low-WHIP, low-ERA pitcher a la Iwakuma? If he doesn't pan out, no big loss.
Minor League Pitchers Worthy of Consideration in Redraft Leagues
- Tyler Glasnow struck out 11.2/9 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 109.1 innings last year across all three levels. The Pirates have some question marks in the rotation and this tall 22 year old appears ready when the need arises.
- Blake Snell is a 23 year-old Rays' prospect who put up a 1.41ERA, 1.02WHIP, and 10.9K/9 across three levels in 134 innings last year. The Rays are so confident in his future that they are discussing a long term deal with him, even though he has never pitched in the majors. He likely will get the call this year.
- Jose Berrios, a 21 year old Twins' prospect, put up a 2.87 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 in AA/AAA last year despite being so young. He should be drafted behind the other two, but any of the three is worthy if you have bench space.
- Lucas Giolito and Julio Urias are arguably the two highest upside pitching prospects, but they are less likely to have value in re-draft leagues due to their age and experience but are worth monitoring if there are rumors surrounding them.
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