RADIO
Welcome back everyone, to another LoL article featuring four more matchups on the rift. This morning's slate was a fun one, even though only one underdog came through (LSB are not to be trusted as I mentioned, also Lava difference.) Brion swept as Sandbox looked scattered and lost, not a very good showing at all. T1 handled business vs HLE, who drafted questionably as I mentioned, by putting lane kingdom Chovy on Volibear mid. Over in LPL, FPX actually dropped a game to UP, but bounced back in game 3 and putting up great numbers.
I still don't love how they lost, but it was a good showing from Smlz and Shiauc on his classic Thresh. My one sole lineup cashed, with LNG blowing up in game two, certainly building some early momentum, while V5 kind of just rolled over after the early game. Let's hope to find a couple of more winning angles on the next slate. On a side note, I exclusively play on Draftkings. For Fanduel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
There were some roster changes that will be addressed when mentioning each team. Also, the LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series at least. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to project starters based on who ended the last split and/or played in the playoffs. LPL starters are found on Twitter too, as ill try to post/retweet those starting lineups as early as available.
Featured Promo: For this week only, take 50% off any full-season or yearly Premium Pass on the site! Just enter discount code THANKS when checking out. Thanks for being a reader, and Happy Holidays! Sign Up Now!I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Thursday, June 10th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. Let's jump right into the matchups!
LCK Matches
4:00 AM: KT (+115) vs. NS (-150)
This is the first series of the LCK day, so starting lineups should be out for this one. This matchup should be close, and slower-paced as both teams were in the bottom half of the league in CKPM. NS are the favorites but let's see what we're working with. Last split, KT finished 7th (6-12 W/L) and lost the final playoff spot to none other than NS(6th place, 7-11) The last spot was in KT's hands, as they beat NS 2-1 in the 2nd half of the split to secure a chance to win in the final week and be in playoffs. Unfortunately, that last matchup of the split was against LCK champs DWG Kia, so NS secured the final spot by beating BRO. NS only holds the edge in EGR, slight advantages in FT% and FT3%, and a glaring 50DRG% as compared to KTs 37DRG%. However, KT has ever so slight advantages in MLR, vision, KDA, and FB%.
I would have exposure to both sides of this matchup. The most critical matchup this series is the jungle matchup, as Peanut leads his team in KP% and is involved all around the map. Deokdam has shown good team fighting skills and was no.2 in KS% last split among all players, while Rich on the other side of the map can really pop off with his picks like Aatrox and Kennen. Doran quietly had a good showing last split and can play carry champions too. The top side of the map could be the focus in this series, as we could get a volatile matchup for at least 1 game. Both top laners were in the top half of the league in KP%. Both mid-laners don't require many resources and aren't necessarily the primary carries on their teams. Gideon (if starter) can potentially match Peanut in this meta which is more farming favored, as long as he can track Peanut around the map, he does hold a WPM advantage of 0.68 to Peanut's 0.34WPM, the lowest out of players in the series. I think NS will draw more ownership, as on paper they are the more talented team, but just like Sandbox, can play down to their opponent's level.
KT started last split 1-5 before finding any footing at all. If it weren't for unlucky scheduling, they could've secured a playoff spot over NS. KT is my favorite secondary stack on this slate and can help you afford JDG on DraftKings. I almost want to have a dog or pass stance on this series, but I'm ok with a 1 off Deokdam/Peanut/Team. I prefer a KT four-man dog stack, as Nongshim averaged a 0.83 CKPM in losses. Just be sure to check starting lineups in the AM, as KT has some sub risk in a couple of roles.
Top KT plays:
- Doran- TOP - can definitely carry in this meta, Rich is very hit or miss, similar to LSB's Summit.
- Noah - ADC - leads the team in KS%, good Ezreal player which could open up Zzus to roam.
- GIDEON - JGL - good contrarian option, pivot off Peanut and should have a good series if they win.
- Ucal - MID - another good contrarian pick, good CSPM numbers, late-game mage player, not much competition in this lane matchup vs Goru who we haven't heard much of.
7:00 AM: GEN G (-450) vs. DRX (+300)
Gen G won the H2H last split with a 3-2 record. DRX won the first series 2-1, and that was with Gen G Karis subbed in over Bdd. Bdd played in the 2nd series and they handled DRX comfortably 2-0. Gen g finished 2nd in the league at 13-5 while DRX placed 5th after starting the split 7-3 and ending the split on a 5 game L streak. Historically, the old DRX iteration would have the upper edge in this matchup, but now with Kingen, Solka, Bao, as the DRX laners, GEN G have the more talented players. I like Pyosik and Kingen, and Bao showed improvement over the course of the split, while Becca also showed some bright moments, but I am loving Gen G to sweep here. Not much sub risk at all in this series besides Bdd in the mid lane, which is highly unlikely, so starters from the last split can be applied here
Statistically, Gen G literally holds an advantage in EVERY team stat, except they are tied with DRX for ELD%. In terms of pace, this game shouldn't be a bloody affair, as both teams rank in the bottom half in CKPM, as well as in losses. Other than that, it's all Gen G all day. Rascal is proficient on carries and tanks, up against a not so intimidating Kingen. I prefer the mid/jungle duo of Clid and Bdd as well over Pyosik and Solka. Bao is a late-game carry player, who holds a higher team KS% than Ruler. In lower scoring games, kills can be more concentrated, resulting in nice 1 off plays. Bao or Pyosik are the only 2 players I would like exposure to in deep GPP tournaments.
Gen G wins 2-0 and start the split off clean. I just don't see DRX creating significant advantages unless Gen G terribly throw the early game. This could happen if Pyosik pulls out some weird or less popular pick, but Clid is coming off a good split, top 5 in GD10 and FB%. Gen G comes prepared, making them another solid secondary stack, just a matter of how badly DRX will lose since they can go down quietly.
Top GEN G Plays:
- Clid- JGL - should be well involved, team leader in KP%.
- Bdd - MID - should have no problem vs Solka.
- Ruler - ADC - stats fell off compared to his 2020 summer campaign, but meta shifting towards his proficient champs such as Ezreal and Aphelios, high late-game carry potential.
- GEN G -TEAM- sweep bonus and big drg% advantage, towers will crumble in each lane slowly but surely.
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: JDG (-1200) vs. TT (+650)
JDG are huge favorites here against TT, sticking with the same roster that won them the split in 2020. TT is sending out Langx, Xiaopeng, Captain, SamD, and Patch. JDG is looking to improve off last split's disappointing end, losing 3-1 to FPX in playoffs, while TT didn't even make playoffs. TT is the cheapest and probably lowest owned team on this upcoming slate. For how they played JDG last split, I don't mind sprinkling some TT 4 man stacks in huge GPP contests. The upside is certainly there with JDG. However, I personally think TT downgraded rosters since the last split, so I predict an easier way to victory this time out for JDG.
Lvmao and Kanavi are the two I am looking at to step up this split, as they both had a down year compared to their championship run a couple of splits ago. Lvmao on Bard and other roaming champs were the X factor during their championship run, and I expect him to continue to be a key cog in the JDG playmaking department. This team is clearly loaded with talent, and enjoys fighting, as they ended 3rd in LPL with a 0.91 CKPM! TT have their hands full for their first match of the split but did take JDG to 3 games last split, in a really entertaining series. SamD had a great showing in that one, and is the shining spot and carry of the TT roster. TT actually formed leads against this roster, played the map well, and the meta should give both teams a slight buff. TT can really take games off anyone, even with this new roster.
JDG win 2-0, scoring well in one of the games, but subpar in the other. But a world exists where TT wins a game. TT would have to get after JDG in the early game and that would involve Xiaopeng, Captain, Patch, and SamD in that order. SamD carrying the mid/late game fights while mid/jungle can skirmish around the top side of the map, which is an area that JDG will contest, for rift herald. It's hard to justify rostering TT tonight, but for salary purposes tomorrow, I'm looking at SamD and Xiaopeng for 1 off salary savers, to go with my RA stacks. Both players are heavily involved in TT wins, and close losses.
Top JDG Plays:
- Loken- ADC - top tier ADC stats, and is in the most critical matchup today and has to show up, team leader in KS%.
- Lvmao - SUP - big playmaker/roamer for the team, will make some big plays and be involved in this bot-centric game setting.
- Zoom- TOP - will have an advantageous matchup against a good weak side player in Langx.
- Yagao - MID - if he gets his hands on Zoe he could break the slate.
7:00 AM: RA (-600) vs. LGD (+375)
The last game of the day features another RA matchup, who just swept OMG 2 days ago, against LGD who weren't very inspiring last split, but now have some returning members of the 2020 worlds roster. Maybe now that Xiye has rejoined the roster with Kramer and Mark, there is a chance for an upset? It's hard to base LGD off of last split's stats, as tomorrow they will have 4 unique members starting compared to last split. LGD will send out Garvey, Shad0w, Xiye, Kramer, and Mark. RA will send out the same lineup from a couple of days ago.
Both teams were bottom 5 in CKPM, opting for more macro play, but LGD now has the players to potentially draft some early game skirmish comps, at least for a game. LGD had the second-worst Early Game Rating of any LPL team last split. I expect the coaching staff to address that part of their game somehow. LGD and RA both finished middle of the pack for Late Game Rating. The key matchup for me in this series is the mid/jungle synergy of Shad0w and Xiye, and what style of mid/jungle will they play for? Will they play for enemy jungle invades, mid resources, or for roaming to other lanes together? All these things happen naturally but I believe it is too soon to tell with this LGD roster how it shakes out. I have to see it to believe it, but the potential to be a fringe playoff team is there. I give RA the advantage as they have had far more time to synergize than their opponents.
RA played the map well vs OMG, but the early phases weren't extremely dominating from RA. RA is a team that isn't going to move around the map much with their advantages. Leyan is the X factor for the team, as it's not Cube's style to roam around, Fofo will really only move around on Twisted Fate, Galio, or Zoe, and Iboy and Hang don't really move around the map a whole lot either. However, they are a good team, individually, and have strong laners, which allows Leyan to do as he pleases (whether that is to his team's benefit or not.) RA is a great "counterpunch team" as Lyric would say, and LGD has a few members (Garvey, Mark and now Shad0w even) that will just engage when they see a slight opening to do so. This could open up for hopefully higher scoring games than RA's last series vs OMG, as OMG didn't pull the trigger as much as LGD will tomorrow. LGD comes out swinging but RA stat checks them and sweeps here 2-0, scoring 15+ kills in each match.
Top RA plays:
- FOFO - Mid - consistently finding lane advantages and making up for the team's shortcomings, Xiye isn't necessarily a strong laner.
- Leyan - JGL - brought out the viego last series, and again is the X factor for this team's success.
- Iboy - ADC - Iboy and hang have the edge in this matchup.
- Hang- SUP - good pivot off Lvmao tomorrow.
Summary
- TLDR: KT 2-1, GEN G 2-0, JDG 2-0, RA 2-0 with the slate breaking game being NS Redforce vs KT Rolster. Three favorites win again just like last slate, but I love the leverage here with KT.
- It IS early in the split, typically the best time for huge upsets. Sprinkle in some TT 4-man stacks and DRX small stacks if multi-entering.
That's it, for now, Summoners, good luck tomorrow!
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