RADIO
Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring four matchups tomorrow from the LPL and LCK. We are coming off of a PERFECT day of predictions. Granted three series featured really heavy favorites, we predicted the LNG upset and called it being the slate-breaker. Two great slates in a row and let's hope to keep it rolling. As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Friday, June 18th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. Odds listed are from bovada. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: HLE (-260) vs. LSB (+190)
This is the first matchup of the day so lineups should be out. These teams are 0-2 coming into this one, with HLE dropping series to T1 and GEN, while LSB lost to BRO and NS. HLE clearly have had the tougher schedule to start the split, but are in a smash spot vs a bottom-three team in the league. LSB has looked lost and outplayed so far this split, and is outmatched in every lane in my opinion. I love the upside for HLE as a primary stack in this one, as they are first in the LCK in CKPM while LSB ranks fourth and can really run it down at times.
To be fair, HLE has had questionable drafts and a 9k gold lead throw vs GEN in game one. But that was against a top-tier team. HLE probably aren't going to stomp you completely in the side lanes, but LSB hasn't looked competitive enough to take a game off of a playoff team in HLE. The entire map could pop off for HLE and it wouldn't surprise me. However, most of the time the wins will come through Chovy, just like last split.
I will have a lot of Captain Chovy and HLE in my lineups, and zero LSB plays. I don't trust them and think they are team to target all split long. I like the mid/jungle duo for HLE to really show out in this one, as it is key in this meta, and LSB really hasn't been inspiring in their execution. YoHan will have his first great series of the split, right there to support and roam with Chovy. HLE crush 2-0 and grab their first victory of the split, with more focus on playing around the top side of the map.
Top HLE plays: ALL, by preference (CHURCH OF CHOVY, YoHan, Morgan, Deft, Vsta)
7:00 AM: NS(+320) vs. GEN(-500)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. NS are 3-0 to start the split with victories over KT(who GEN G could've very well lost to yesterday), LSB, and DRX (all in three games.) This will be their toughest match of the split so far. GEN didn't necessarily play amazing in their most recent win vs. KT and was actually behind in game three. GEN is also 3-0 with victories over DRX, HLE, and KT. GEN went 4-0 in games vs NS last spring.
This matchup features two bottom half of the league teams in terms of CKPM, and I think these teams will opt for team fighting over objectives and less skirmishing. GEN is fifth in the LCK in EGR and first in MLR. NS ranks seventh in EGR and second in MLR. Both teams haven't had many exceptional early games but come together in the mid/late stages to blow up the game. It's going to boil down to the jungle matchup to determine who jumps out ahead in the early, with both teams having capable carries in each lane. Peanut is the core player and KP% leader of this NS squad, while Gori had a decent series last time out, and is one of the biggest question marks for NS. GEN has studs in the side lanes, and a significant mid-lane advantage tomorrow, and a balanced roster that can carry from any lane. Bdd has the most favorable matchup for GEN in my eyes tomorrow.
Both teams have shown their struggles early on, but I think GEN takes this series with a 2-1 score. What concerns me most, and why I have NS winning a game, is Peanut having a red hot start to the split on strong power picks right now. Clid usually goes on Volibear/Udyr duty, but broke out the Diana vs KT, and looked average on her, while also holding a 58 KP% this split. Clid will have to show up in this one, and I'll have exposure to both sides. Secondary stacks from this one at best tomorrow, and I do like Peanut as a cheap one-off for savings.
Top GEN plays:
- Bdd - MID - can generate a lead consistently in this matchup, lower-owned Mid tomorrow so I like for mini stacks and one-offs
- Rascal - TOP - volatile matchup vs Rich, plays the carries very well
- Clid - JGL - has to perform well vs one of the top junglers in the league
- Ruler - ADC - also in tougher matchup than last week, looking to once again carry on Ezreal, up against old duo support in Kellin!
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: OMG (+800) vs. RNG (-1800)
This matchup is pretty straightforward. RNG is in a similar spot to TES this morning, up against bottom-level teams but willing to play with their food a little. RNG is finally back from MSI and quarantine, debuting as huge favorites vs an improved OMG squad from last split. OMG just bested IG in three games, though it's arguable IG beat themselves, of course well played to OMG for executing their win conditions more effectively than IG, a true weakness of the great IG.
RNG will not drop the ball vs a low-tier team. They are arguably the best team in the world at the moment, with the best jungler in Wei. This guy is insane and has the carries in every lane to back him up. You could even get to Captain Xiaohu, who still puts up mid-like stats in this meta. Cryin is heavily improved from his Estar(now Ultra Prime) days and thrives with this team. Gala and Ming are stomping 2v2's in the bot lane, with Ming being the best support in the world at the moment. OMG is simply just outmatched here, and RNG showed us at MSI they will run up the kills vs inferior competition. Give me all the RNG here for primary stacks.
Top RNG plays: ALL, by preference (Wei, Cryin, Xiaohu, Gala, Ming)
7:00 AM: UP (+450) vs. SN (-650)
The last series of the day is another chalk favorite, with SN seeking their first win, 0-2, while UP sits at 1-2 with their win coming over RW. Unfortunately, SN seems like they are still dealing with the loss of Swordart, as ON has looked like a hero at times, and a struggling player at others. Swordart was the shot-caller, and primary playmaker for this SN squad, and now the playmaking/engage role has fallen into the hands of ON. He is the matchup I'm focused on the most today and is up against one of the league's best when in form vs ShiauC. Smlz can be a talented player at times too, so the biggest focus for SN should be making sure UP's bot lane doesn't get too far ahead.
I'm going to sprinkle some Smlz and ShiauC mini stacks in my lineups for large field GPP's, as winning this in three games is a true possibility. But Suning is in a great spot to capture their first victory and could be a lower-owned primary stack that could score well vs a lower-tier squad. I want to believe ON will improve in time, but I'll need to see some more concise and conscious decision-making before I feel confident in SN to sweep a bot-focused squad (even if it is UP, they showed competitiveness vs FPX's struggling bot lane.) SN win 2-1 off the backs of the solo lanes, making them good secondary stacks, and good pivots off Huanfeng who will probably be the highest owned SN member.
Top SN plays:
- Bin - TOP - should dominate in this matchup, big win condition for SN now that Huanfeng's ceiling is lowered with ON
- Angel- MID- bounceback spot vs a weaker, more team-oriented laner. I expect Angel to form consistent advantages tomorrow
- Huanfeng- ADC - extremely talented ADC, has to show up vs a bot focused team
- SoFm- JGL - is playing the strong meta champs, but doesn't look fully connected with the team at times during fights/engages
Summary
- TLDR: HLE 2-0 smash, GEN 2-1 close victory over NS, RNG sweep and destroy OMG 2-0, SN 2-1 but will have four-man stacks in case of a high scoring sweep. Prioritize HLE/RNG.
That's it, for now, Summoners, good luck tomorrow!
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