RADIO
Welcome back to another LoL DFS slate. Tonight seems like a boring night of all big favorites, but in DFS nothing is a for-sure thing so it can always be interesting.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Friday, June 24th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @nvanhareDFS. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups
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4:00 AM: DRX (-526) vs. HLE (+355)
Today in the LCK we have two massively lopsided matches. This match with DRX having an implied 81% chance of winning is the lesser of the two mismatches. The current meta in the game leads to long games that "end" in near coin flip situations often. This definitely is the case for DRX as well as they are one of the slower teams in the league. HLE has not shown much promise this year altogether but at the same time in this meta, I feel as if upsets can happen more often. I'm more willing to take some shots here on HLE than I would be normally. I think this game in general is not a great spot for cash but also not great for GPPs if you are taking DRX. Given their low pricing compared to the other favorites I can see them coming in way too owned.
Top DRX plays: Pyosik, Zeka
Top HLE plays: SamD, Vsta
7:00 AM: GEN (-1250) vs. BRO (+632)
This match is one that I won't say much about. GEN is easily a top team in this league and Brion just isn't. GEN is a great cash stack spot as they are as close to a guaranteed win you are going to get on this slate. I will not be getting near Brion in GPPs and I will likely be over the field on GEN 4 stacks.
Top GEN Plays: Chovy, Doran
Top BRO Plays: Lava, Hena
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LPL Matches
4:45 AM: LNG (-363) vs. OMG (+279)
Both LPL matches tonight have decently lopsided odds as well. Tonight makes for a really interesting night because all underdog stacks are going to be underowned. DRX pricing makes double favorite stacks relatively appealing with JNG, MID, and ADC captain spots. As a result I don't think that we should see greater than 10% on any of the LPL underdogs tonight. This makes a great case for taking shots on OMG in GPPs. OMG has always been a snowball type team where they are pushing edges continuously. If they manage to get ahead early in 2 games in this series, it will become tough for LNG to stay in it. Last split I was a big LNG fan but with their disappointing results in many spots, I think that OMG becomes a spot I really like tonight. Look to use OMG and LNG stacks in GPP and maybe stay away from this one in cash games.
Top LNG Plays: Tarzan Doinb
Top OMG Plays: Creme, Shanji
7:00 AM: JDG (-303) vs. UP (+226)
Last game on the docket for tonight, This game is likely too close in odds according to Pinnacle. I think JDG should likely be a much bigger favorite but in this meta a lot of coin flip situations arise. This may be the reason that a lot of these lines are much closer than they would have been in previous splits. That being said, I think that JDG is nearly a must play in cash games with GEN stacks. While the constructions are not too fun to look at, they both present a very high floor and high probability of winning their games. I also believe many people hold this sentiment so UP will likely come in under utilized in GPPs. Look to use JDG in your cash lineups and attack either side in GPPs.
Top JDG Plays: Kanavi, Yagao
Top UP Plays: Elk, H4cker
Summary
- TLDR: Big favorites across the board today, don't be afraid to take shots on the underdogs. According to the odds, in 33% or more of outcomes, at least 1 underdog wins tonight.
- GPP Stacks: Take shots on UP, OMG, HLE with an emphasis on OMG and HLE.
- Cash Stacks: Look to use GEN and JDG predominantly.
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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