RADIO
Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring FIVE matchups tomorrow from the LPL (super weekend!) and LCK. Tomorrow's slate should be a fun one, as teams are scraping for every single win to try and boost their standings positions. I feel comfortable fading at least one of matches tomorrow, perhaps even two series, to cut it down to a three-game slate in my eyes. As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available(usually at least 12 hours before the matches.)
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Saturday, July 24th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: DRX (+820) vs. DK (-1304)
This is the first LCK matchup of the day so lineups should be out. DK are the biggest favorites on the slate tomorrow, and for good reason. DRX is having a horrendous split, while DK is shaping up into form before playoffs. A straighforward series here, as I want more exposure to the DK team slot here more than anything, perhaps paired with a one-off.
I don't see a world where DRX even win a game here. DRX have looked slightly more aggressive and willing to fight since their subs came in, so I will have exposure to DK primary stacks as well. I expect DRX to come out with nothing to lose, looking to knock down the reiging world champs, but they will fall flat on their faces, as they are outmatched in every single role. DK win 2-0 tomorrow, but my main concern is the possibility of DRX going down too easily, which I why I prefer the team slot here, but primary stakcs of DK should be more lower owned and more contrarian than EDG and RA stacks tomorrow. I will definitely have some CAPTAIN exposure from this one, with Khan being the best savings option, as well as creating a contrarian double top build, to help you fit in the other bigger favorites, and Canyon who is a bit more pricey. I don't even mind getting to BeryL in this one for savings and another contrarian double support build. I do prefer getting to Ghost and Canyon though, as my other favorite plays today allow for it.
Top DK Plays, ALL in order: TEAM, Canyon, Ghost, Beryl, Showmaker, Khan
6:00 AM: LSB (+178) vs. T1 (-220)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. To be honest I was really surprised when I saw these odds, as I see it much closer to a pick 'em. The last time these two met LSB swept T1 with Cuzz in the lineup, so it's a different dynamic this time around, and I expect a faster-paced series compared to their first meeting. I like LSB to keep the momentum rolling here, and even though T1 are on their own little streak, LSB is just a good value bet at this odds price in my opinion. T1's win condition is usually winning throguh the top side of the map, as it is for many teams in this meta, and LSB's top side of the map can very well contest with the likes of T1's. The bot lanes are also even in my eyes, with Effort having arguably the best split of his career and is against his old team again.
Give me LSB to win 2-1 here, making them good one-off plays and small stacks. The key focus will be the top side of the map this time around, as compared to last time these teams met it was more bot-centric. That said I prefer getting to FATE, Croco, and Summit for my one-offs but am fine with a Prince and Effort smal stack as well. LSB is a good value stack tomorrow, but I don't think they bring as much upside as the other LPL value stack I like today.
Top LSB plays: Croco, FATE, FADE, Summit, Prince
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LPL Matches
3:00 AM: UP (+479) vs. RA (-673)
It’s pretty straightforward for the first LPL matchup tomorrow in my eyes. FADE this series. Neither team excels or prefers to skirmish early and often, and would much rather play a macro-focused game with a focus on objectives and teamfighting in a slower pace matchup. RA is the biggest LPL favorite tomorrow and could very well drop a game vs UP. Even in a 2-0 sweep, I don't want any primary stacks, as neither team dies a crazy amount in losses.
I think RA comes out on top 2-1 here. I would limit my exposure to small stacks and player/team one-offs. I don't trust RA here to easily sweep this UP roster that has shown flashes of good play and decision making, and I DEFINITELY don't trust them to be the optimal primary stack tomorrow. I'd much rather pay up for the bigger favorites in DK to get the job done for me in the team slot.
Top RA plays: FADE, FoFo, iBoy, Leyan
5:00 AM: RNG (-197) vs. JDG (+160)
We got a great match here for the second series in the LPL, as RNG has some work to do to climb up the LPL standings, while JDG looks to find their footing in the meta as they are now tied with Suning and BLG. I love RNG here to come out with stronger drafts and sweep aside JDG. JDG has disappointed me so far in this patch, and has to face an RNG squad that can attack you from so many different angles. JDG is seemingly a one-way ticket on the Kanavi ride or die train, essentially playing for him to carry or losing the game. They haven't been performing terribly but they struggle to really accelerate their leads in this meta and that is very detrimental against a squad like RNG.
For Pete’s sake, Yagao started 4/0 on LEBLANC in game two vs BLG last week and the team barely pushed their advantage and ended up losing. Obviously it's not solely Yagao's fault, but as a team, they have to perform better cohesively to take down a team like RNG and I don't see it coming together in just a few days. Given JDG's struggles in the draft and execution stages of the game, I see a big mismatch here in favor of RNG. Give me all the RNG for my primary stacks tomorrow, as I think JDG will try to take it to RNG early and often and fail, resulting in strong DFS scores for RNG in a 2-0 victory. I like plenty of CAPTAINS from RNG here, including Wei, Cryin, Gala, and Xiaohu in that order, depending on who you can fit them with for pricing.
Top RNG plays, ALL in order: Cryin, Wei, Xiahou, Gala, Ming
7:00 AM: WE (+307) vs. EDG (-402)
The last matchup of the day features the return of Clearlove in the jungle for EDG, a surprise and rush of nostalgia for most people. Clearlove hasn't played professionally on stage since 2019 and has been in a head coaching role since then. The LPL is home to many talented junglers, Beishang being one of them, and as dominant as EDG has been it's hard to see them rolling over a talented team like WE with a substitute that could potentially harm the chemistry and performance of the team. I'm not sure why the move was made, perhaps to give JieJie some rest before playoffs, or Clearlove has a strategy he wants to implement first hand.
Regardless, I now see this as a dog or pass spot for me. EDG is sitting pretty atop the LPL standings while this match means way more for WE to move up the ladder. WE have the talent and early aggression to take down EDG here, and are a great GPP play tomorrow, for both primary and secondary stacks. I prefer secondary stacks because WE win 2-1 here with no sweep bonus. I expect a slower-paced matchup, and WE to spoil the return of their old jungle from back in 2012 and 2013, dominating through the top side of the map in their win. I think EDG steals a victory here off of the backs of Viper and Meiko. CAPTAINS from this game I would look at are Beishang and Elk for WE, but I want my captains from a series that gives me the sweep bonuses. WE are another great value stack that should bring higher upside than LSB.
Top WE plays: Beishang, Breathe, Elk, Shanks
Summary
- TLDR: My favorite primary stacks/picks in order: RNG 2-0, DK 2-0, WE 2-1, LSB 2-1, RA 2-1. The WE and LSB stacks are neck and neck for me, so it's a matter of which one I can fit into my lineups better. I lean WE due to higher kill counts and most likely lower ownership.
- Fading both LCK matches tomorrow seems like what most people will do, but I do see some stack leverage for DK and even LSB on this LPL focused slate.
- I think LSB is the best dog and value on the whole slate, but WE is going to be lower owned in a more urgent matchup in regards to their rank in the standings, so I will split my ownership between these two. Good luck tomorrow!
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