RADIO
Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring FIVE matchups tomorrow from the LPL (super weekend!) and LCK. We are coming off a PERFECT day of series winners yesterday, with the RA fade paying off by prioritizing RNG, WE, and DK. WE were probably the easiest underdog to bet in a while especially at those odds, so let's keep the momentum riding into a more interesting slate today with some closer matchups. Tomorrow's slate should be a fun one, as teams are scraping for every single win to try and boost their standings positions. Just like yesterday, I feel comfortable fading at least one of the matches tomorrow, perhaps even two series, to cut it down to a three-game slate in my eyes. As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available(usually at least 12 hours before the matches.)
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Saturday, July 24th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: GEN (-233) vs. AF (+190)
This is the first LCK matchup of the day so lineups should be out. GEN needs a win to tie up again with NS for first place, while AF needs a win to stay one step ahead of BRO who is right behind them in the standings. The last time these two met, GEN swept and put up optimal scores, as AF showed they aren't afraid to get the action going early. AF shouldn't deviate too much from their game plan and still come out and look to establish early leads through fights, so I can see some good DFS scoring coming out of this one. However, I think this series goes three games this time around, as both teams have had only two days to prepare something since their last series. There are significant implications for standings in this one and both teams will bring their A-game.
I think both teams have slate-breaking potential as a small stack, even in a three-game series. It's a matter of if you need to on this slate. I am honestly more attracted to the other LCK series for small stacks, so for the sake of this article, I will be under the field on this match. GEN wins a close match 2-1, and I prefer getting to GEN one-offs over two-man small stacks but is a decent FADE option as well. I just prefer getting to the other LCK series as I think it will be higher-paced than this one. CAPTAINS from this game aren't really in play for me tomorrow.
Top GEN plays: FADE, Ruler, Bdd, Rascal
Top AF plays: FADE, Dread, Kiin
6:00 AM: HLE (-172) vs. BRO (+143)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. The last time these teams met at the beginning of the split, it was a similar spot, where BRO started the split strong and HLE was struggling, and HLE came out on top 2-1. Is this a stylistic mismatch for BRO, as HLE just wants to cause chaos throughout the whole game vs a much more controlled and cohesive enemy? HLE needs this win to pass BRO in the standings and make a push for playoffs, and a BRO win would shove HLE down a full game and a half and hopefully tie-up with AF in the win column.
I was a little surprised to not see these odds closer to a pick 'em, as BRO has stepped it up recently and HLE still struggles with draft and decision-making inconsistencies.
Personally, I think this is a great matchup for BRO, a team that consistently shows their cohesive team fighting and pretty concise decision making, against an HLE team that wants the Rift to erupt into chaos. I'll chalk up their last loss vs HLE to draft. If Chovy or Deft don't find large early game leads, then we are in for some DFS fireworks over in the LCK. HLE is one of the teams I love to target on both sides of their matches, as they will bring the fights early and often, and usually at lower ownership since it's the LCK. It's a close matchup and I expect most objectives to be contested by both teams. Give me BRO to continue to keep their playoff hopes alive in a 2-1 victory, making them a good value stack tomorrow, as well as a great GPP contrarian full stack with a slate-breaking amount of upside vs a bloodthirsty HLE squad. This could be recency bias speaking, but BRO truly looks like the better TEAM to me this split and could very well sweep this match, so I am hoping for big leverage in this series to pivot away from Chovy, Deft, and HLE. CAPTAINS from BRO that I like are Umti, Lava, and Hena.
Top BRO plays, ALL in order: Umti, Hena, Hoya, Lava, Delight
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LPL Matches
3:00 AM: LNG (-181) vs. LGD (+148)
It’s pretty straightforward for the first LPL matchup tomorrow in my eyes. Light, Lwandy, and M1kuya are back in for LNG, the iteration that played most of the spring split together. This is probably my favorite spot on the slate, as I look to load up on an LNG squad that established their reputation last split as 'The Gatekeepers', simply excelling at beating teams below them in the standings. LNG also has the higher upside in a win this series, based on how these teams play from a gold deficit.
I think LGD has some talent on the roster, but I don't see a true spearhead on that roster the way that I see Tarzan as the leader of LNG. Shad0w has had good matches this split, but also some rough ones vs the top-tier LPL junglers, and this is another spot where I see him struggle. M1kuya is used to playing weak side (played a LOT of weak side Gnar last split) and should be fine against the aggressive Garvey, so I will be prioritizing the other four members of LNG tomorrow for my full stacks, at lower ownership than they should be. LGD needs this win more than LNG at the moment, but LNG has a couple of teams right on their tail for the fourth place spot and definitely won't overlook LGD here. LNG win 2-0 tomorrow and the roster swap doesn't scare me one bit. CAPTAINS I like here are Light, Icon, and even Tarzan if you need the value and upside combination up top. LNG is a great value stack tomorrow, mix them in as full stacks and small stacks.
Top LNG plays, ALL in order: Light, Tarzan, Lwandy, Icon, M1kuya
5:00 AM: OMG (-714) vs. V5 (+429)
I'll start by saying OMG are the largest favorites on the slate and the most expensive on DK. I'm not sure how I feel about this, even if they are facing V5. I don't see this series as being a relatively bloody one either, so the prices definitely scare me off. I truly think OMG can get caught sleeping here vs an inferior team that has nothing to lose. Most likely OMG comes out with a 2-0 victory here, but that's what the ownership is going to reflect. I also believe V5 has the higher upside in a win here. OMG would most likely keep trying to fight their way back into the match, while V5 definitely tends to roll over and let their nexus explode fairly uncontested. If V5 finds early leads, I do expect good scoring from the winning squad. OMG is the better team but I see this as a similar spot to RA yesterday, meaning even if OMG wins 2-0, I can see other stacks outscoring them on this slate specifically. This is the LPL and anyone can beat anybody, so I will have exposure to both sides of this one, but definitely under the field on this match completely, and over the field on V5 tomorrow. I am predicting a 2-1 OMG win, making this my favorite FADE option for me tomorrow.
Top OMG Plays: FADE, Able, Creme, Aki
TOP V5 Plays: FADE, Uniboy, Kepler, Pzx
7:00 AM: TES (-417) vs. IG (+281)
The last matchup of the day would be an absolute banger if this were last split, but this is summer IG, and it's not looking like a good time for them tomorrow, even with TheShy back in. TES is rolling and absolutely need every win they can get to climb up the standings for a bye spot. I expect them to come out fully focused and bloodthirsty tomorrow, drafting to punish the weaker IG side lanes. Knight went berserk last slate, and I think the matchup favors Jackeylove more this time around. Give me TES to 2-0 here at a slight discount on DK, making them a priority for me to get into my lineups. I will mix in full stacks and small stacks, but I do think IG looks for early aggressive fights in this one to get TheShy ahead, while again TES focuses on getting the side lanes ahead in this series, and Knight looks to neutralize Rookie. I expect some bloodshed for sure in this series. CAPTAINS I like are JKL and Karsa for a value captain.
Top TES plays, ALL in order: Jackeylove, Karsa, Qingtian, Yuyanjia, Knight
Summary
- TLDR: My favorite primary stacks/picks in order: LNG 2-0, TES 2-0, BRO 2-1, GEN 2-1, OMG 2-1. Tomorrow I'll be loading up on LNG and TES mostly for my full stacks, and mixing in a good amount of BRO and GEN in there. Basically, I'm playing for chalk OMG to go three games and not hit value at their prices, which could go very wrong lol.
- I think OMG and LGD come in over-owned, while LNG and BRO come in too under-owned this slate.
- I think BRO is the best dog and value on the whole slate, followed by AF and V5 having sneaky slate breaking upside even in three games so I will toss in a prayer lineup or two. Good luck tomorrow!
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