RADIO
Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring four matchups tomorrow from the LPL and LCK. Yesterday's slate was rough, as the RNG fade call was not ideal, as RNG ended up optimal along with FPX. TES lost in three games as -1000 favorites, AF fell to DRX 2-1, and T1 overcame BRO in three games as well, so the value was in DRX. FPX was the only thing I got right last night, so let's bounce back on a slate with a lot of close projected matchups. The LPL matches project to be the ones with higher kill upside as usual. However, NS facing off against HLE provides some sneaky upside and is a nice pivot off of the LPL stacks. Let's get into it and as a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available(usually at least 12 hours before the matches.)
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM EST on Sunday, August 1st, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: HLE (+189) vs. NS (-235)
This is the first LCK matchup of the day so lineups should be out. The last time these two met, HLE overcame NS in three games in a close series where HLE actually held control for most of the series. They threw game one, came back and won in game two, then stomped NS for 27 kills in game three. Since NS lost to HLE, they have won five of their past six series, only losing to the red-hot LSB. This time around, I expect NS to come prepared in the draft and in-game, to aggressively skirmish more than they did in their last meeting. NS is rolling now and looks to take sole possession of first place in the LCK, while HLE is hoping for a miracle victory and a series of losses from AF or DK.
I truly think this series has the first or second-highest upside for kills on this four-game slate. Fading the players in the DK vs KT and LGD vs OMG matches and opting for TEAM slots from those series is a great way to get different on this slate, as I do expect DK(bigger favorites) and OMG(probably the chalk value) to draw decent ownership over NS, but I could be mistaken. NS bounceback here after a really tight match vs LSB, while HLE comes into this one on a two-game win streak, taking down DRX and BRO which doesn't mean a whole lot. NS sweep this match 2-0 in bloody fashion are my favorite primary stack of the day. They are affordable on DK and I will definitely get to some secondary stacks as well. CAPTAINS from this game I like are Deokdam, Peanut, and Gori.
Top NS plays, ALL in order: Deokdam, Penaut, Gori, Kellin, Rich
6:00 AM: KT (+325) vs. DK (-433)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. The last time these two met in week one, KT swept DK, who I believe was still experiencing burnout and an international hangover. Just like the first LCK series, I expect a clean 2-0 in the rematch from the favorites. KT has struggled all split long to find a consistent style of play and footing in the meta, while DK is fighting third place and has the advantage in every role. This one is straightforward for me, as DK will cleanly use their lane advantages to push and pull KT around the map, winning both games in low kill fashion, around 15 or 16 kills if I had to predict.
Even if KT finds an advantage in one of their lanes, they struggle to push their leads in the mid to late game, where DK usually does their best work. DK sweeps here and is my favorite TEAM slot play of the day and another solid secondary stack, but I DEFINITELY prefer NS stacks on this slate paired with an LPL stack. So, I will be FADING DK players on this slate and sticking to DK TEAM slot. DK grabs the quick 2-0 tomorrow night(in Korea) and gets to go home early. However, I don't mind a couple of double LCK lineups as well, if you were entering 15 lineups for example I'd be fine with two or three of them, in hopes of both LPL matches going three games and not scoring extremely bloody. Prefer the top side of the map in this series, and Showmaker and Canyon for CAPTAINS if you want to get there.
Top DK plays: FADE, Showmaker, Khan, Canyon, Ghost, Beryl
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: LGD (-127) vs. OMG (+105)
It's an interesting match for the first LPL series, and also the closest projected match of the day. OMG sit tied for seventh in the LPL, while LGD is two games behind sitting in twelfth. The playoff race for the last few spots in the LPL is crazy, and games this split have been sloppy and bloody. I think most people will prefer to get to the cheaper underdog OMG here in a coin flip matchup, which makes me want to be over the field on LGD here.
I am cautious of full stacks here as there is a high probability this match goes three games, and both teams are hard to predict which version will show up on each slate. By that I mean both teams are content with playing scaling late game compositions that usually end in lower kill games, but also will draft for more early game skirmish compositions with more blood being shed. In a close matchup, I'd expect somewhere in the middle to be the outcome, with both teams drafting some sort of late-game carry as insurance, with some early game skirmishing over objectives as well. That means I will be limiting most of my exposure from this match for small stacks.
I think LGD comes out on top 2-1 in this coinflip, and I'm predicting this knowing that OMG has been playing better recently. OMG does has sweep upside here, but I believe OMG will be over-owned as the go-to value stack, so give me all the LGD here as their last push for playoffs begins vs. a very beatable opponent. CAPTAINS I don't mind getting to are Xiye and Kramer, which I would only get to in a few lineups, as I don't think LGD OR OMG captains will be optimal in a three-game series. This match is neck and neck with NS vs HLE in terms of kill upside/small stack preference for me. Prefer the bottom side of the map in this series.
Top LGD plays: Xiye, Kramer, Mark, Shad0w, Garvey
7:00 AM: WE (-163) vs. IG (+134)
The last match of the day, and is projected to be the bloodiest match on the whole slate. Even in three games, both of these teams could still have at least three players that could end up optimal, and that's the beauty of the LPL. Not really, as sometimes you can have a full LCK stack that sweeps and get outscored by a three-game LPL stack. It's hard sometimes to build around these factors, but that's what makes DFS so darn fun. Regarding this game, I think you need a piece of it. WE are looking to take down the already playoff-eliminated IG and boost themselves up to third place following the RA loss this morning. This is IG's third match in seven days, so perhaps they have more familiarity with the patch than WE do, who defeated RW yesterday in a BLOODY three-game series. This should be another bloodbath between these two skirmishing squads.
I give the role advantages to WE in this match, excluding Shanks. Rookie should be able to find an advantage whoever he plays in this matchup, but the key focus for IG in this matchup will be pumping the resources into Wink and the bot lane, while WE will attempt to stunt TheShy and allow Breathe to be put in a strong position up until the late game where Elk shines in the team fights. IG has consistently had bot lane synergy issues, but this could be a great spot for IG to take a game off of WE, allowing for other sweep stacks to be optimal perhaps. I say this because Wink is a strong Draven player, who counters pretty much Elk's entire champion pool. If WE are tempted to ban it so it never sees the rift then fine, but that opens up more counter picks for the huge champion pools of TheShy and Rookie. It's tough to back IG at all considering they aren't motivated to make playoffs anymore, and might as well be checked out of this split, but WE have shown a lot of cracks in their decision making and gameplay this split. I don't mind getting to some secondary stacks of IG here for deep GPP's paired with DK or preferably NS, as IG is an enigma that will show up when you least expect them to.
I think WE could end up pretty chalky tomorrow but still find the bloody win in 2-1 fashion, making them solid secondary plays for me tomorrow, mainly the top side of the map. CAPTAINS I don't mind getting to are Beishang, Breathe, and of course, Elk. WE are the most expensive stack on DK so you have to get creative with a value CAPTAIN or pair them with an underdog probably.
Top WE plays, ALL in order: Beishang, Breathe, Elk, Missing, Shanks
Summary
- TLDR: My favorite primary stacks/picks in order: NS 2-0, WE 2-1, LGD 2-1, DK 2-0. Predicting all the favorites win tomorrow, what could go wrong? WE are expensive and might still be the chalk along with OMG, who seems to be the best underdog on the slate.
- Since I don't like any underdogs tomorrow, full stacking NS or finding value TOP or JGL captains are probably how I will be building my lineups.
- If I had to choose, I think OMG is the best live dog and value on the whole slate, followed by HLE and IG having sneaky slate-breaking value upside, even in three games, so I will toss in a prayer lineup or two. Won't have any DK(except TEAM), OMG, or HLE tomorrow as I usually build around 10 lineups. Good luck tomorrow!
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