RADIO
I think we can officially declare adcs to be dead in the water. I exaggerate, but as a tilted double adc owner today, I think I'm allowed. Hyper carries like Jinx and Caitlyn are back in the bot lane, keeping the adcs rooted there as well. They need to farm longer to reach two, and three-item spikes missing out on critical early game team fights and kill participation. It was very apparent today with the way Teddy's Xayah and Loken's Caitlyn were used primarily as late-game insurance as the rest of the map snowballed to huge victories. Keep that in mind for the remainder of patch 11.5.
With only one spot left in the LCK bracket, all the teams are still alive to advance, and our opener will go a long way to determining that. SBG and Fredit Brion clash in the early game with a true clash of styles with early versus late game on display. Gen G looks to pick up a free win on their way to the LCK's second seed in the nightcap with KT Rolster reeling. FPX will look to continue their dominance and playoff positioning with a gimme against V5. The LPL serves up another prime cut in their finale today with TES versus RNG, and I can't wait. These playoffs are the only brackets I'm worrying about.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Saturday, March 20th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other helpful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 Liiv SBG (-175) vs. Fredit Brion (+135)
Brion dumped LSB 2-0 from the blue side in their first matchup in week five. LSB seemed to hit rock bottom shortly afterward and have started to rebound. They've locked in Croco and thrown their lot in with Prince at ADC. Brion has also improved since that meeting and has a few more wins under their belt and some quality losses. Both teams are technically alive in the playoff hunt, and so they should be fighting tooth and nail for that final LCK tournament berth.
SBG is notorious for creating early leads and finding creative ways to throw them in the bin. Fredit Brions' main strength is their team fighting, which often leads to them coming back in the late game. This narrative should hold up vis a vis the stats. SBG has a better early game rating and leads BRO in rift herald, first turret, first three turrets, and GD@15. Brion counters with better drake, baron, and vision numbers. Brion seems to come out ahead in the team stats.
The teams are pretty balanced up and down the roster as well. Summit has been on fire post-break, and I believe he SMASHES this matchup. Croco and Umti are close, but I'll favor Umti with his superior ability to impact his lanes. Mid lane is a wash, and I think the bot duos are tight. Everyone knows I don't like Effort, and I believe Hena is better than Prince. The interesting thing is though Prince has been improving now that he's getting some steady run, and looking back to last summer when BRO was in Challengers Korea, Prince's Awesome Spear swept both matchups.
I strangely like SBG here; while neither team has a decided red/blue split, the blue side win rate in LCK is 57%, and SBG is blue. They've played well as of late, will be ahead early, and Prince has good history in the matchup. The only problem is BRO are SLO. They own the lowest CKM in the league in losses and overall. They give up 15 deaths per loss on the split, and post-break, that's down to 13. Brion is also slow in their wins, and SBG is steady at 17 deaths per loss. What saves them is their pricing and their excellent team KP%. I like SBG to win, and I think they come in lower owned, but with Brion pricing and a higher upside, they're probably the correct play. I'll probably hedge this matchup.
Top SBG Plays
- Summit - TOP - he should smash the matchup with Hoya.
- Croco - JNG - leads the team in KP%.
- Prince - ADC - improving steadily and good history in the matchup.
Top BRO Plays
- Hena - ADC - leads the team in KS%.
- Delight - SUP - matches his adc in KP% and is much better than Effort, in my opinion.
- Umti - JNG - more active with his laners, and a very high first blood percentage can help counteract SBG early game.
7:00 AM: KT Rolster (+350) vs. Gen G (-550)
This line will shift massively once people get around to betting it. It opened at Gen G -550 and coming off a win over DWG, and it should further swing public opinion in Gen G's favor. K.T. has looked like death warmed over in their matches recently, and I don't see many signs of life, especially here versus one of the LCK's top teams.
K.T. has been in free fall lately; they even started their backup adc Noah in game two of their embarrassing loss to HLE on Thursday. Even though they still have a chance at playoffs, I think it's pretty evident that they are in rebuilding mode. Noah should draw a start here, but it will be another rough matchup laning into Ruler. K.T. are averaging around 15 deaths in their losses, and I see no reason for Gen G to play around or struggle in this match. I think this is a very simple 2-0 for Gen G's side, but as always, I'm worried about their upside. By all means, slam them in cash and collect your bonus points, but the fade is real for tournaments.
Top GEN Plays:
- Clid - JNG - continues to pace the team in KP% post-break and is second in K.S. by just a few percentage points.
- Bdd - MID - second in KP% and third in KS%.
- Gen G - TEAM - likely heavily owned regardless of price.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: Victory 5 (+550) vs. FunPlus Phoenix (-1000)
V5 are theoretically alive in the playoff hunt, but they haven't won even a single game against a team above them in the standings since a week four 2-1 loss to RNG. FPX has a good game differential and will be looking to improve it in the season's final week to try to move up in the seeding. FPX line has jumped throughout the night to -1000 up from -650, and I expect that to move further still throughout the day.
FPX has been sloppy during the latest jungle transition. Luckily for them, V5 has yet to win a game in the same period. FPX should be up early here as they retain one of the best early games in the LPL. I think we see FPX go out here like they did against LGD, where they took 43:06 to complete the series. The early game stats are so lopsided in this matchup I think it's a possibility they go under that time, with V5 having a lower early game rating than even LGD.
While I am worried about the stomp incoming, the pricing on FPX is a bit wonky. I have them projected just behind TES, but well ahead of Gen G, both of whom are priced above FPX. It seems off to me, and I'll be looking to take advantage. While everyone loves TES, they have a much more formidable opponent than does FPX. FPX should sweep quickly, hopefully not too fast, though.
Top FPX Plays:
- Beichuan - JNG - 77%KP and second in KS% with 22.1 since his arrival.
- Lwx - ADC - KS% leader at 33% he's over 10% higher than anyone else since Beichuan became the starter.
- Crisp - SUP - sits second in KP%.
- Doinb - MID - better numbers than Nuguri, and mids are trending up. I would love to see more Kassadin from him.
6:00 AM: Royal Never Give Up (+145) vs. Top Esports (-185)
After the loss to JDG, RNG's top spot in the LPL is still up for grabs, and with TES coming to town, they will have their hands full looking to hold on to their playoff seed. How about this TES squad? They started the year 3-3 with the stunning loss to R.W. TES has been nothing short of spectacular after break, losing only two games total, one to I.G. and EDG. Let's see how this clash of the titans lines up.
In the RNG/JDG series, I outlined how JDG wanted to win that matchup, and they did almost exactly that, not letting RNG dictate the pace of the game or where and when fights would happen. That allowed JDG to enter the mid-game even and win with their superior team fighting. Well, I rewatched the TES/Estar (Wei/Cryin were the jungle mid then, and they had a similar playstyle) series from last spring for similar insight on how TES can approach this matchup. The match from the previous spring was Jackeylove's second back in the LPL after his spring hiatus, and TES was still searching for some consistency. TES was aggressive early and able to prevent the customary Estar roams. They gave over bot priority to win top and mid-hard. I wouldn't be surprised even to see a level one play come out from Top Esports on Saturday looking to snowball very early while also being confident enough in their lane strength that they can come back if they blow it.
TES will have the edge early even if they don't try to cheese RNG at level one. First blood, herald, first turret, first three turrets, and GD@15 are all in favor of Top Esports. RNG has the edge in dragon percentage and vision numbers, but TES lead in barons. I believe TES will augment this early edge by drafting some winning lanes for them to play around. Karsa will likely look to counter gank Wei, who has the higher first blood percentage and is the more active jungler around the map. That's, of course, right in the Radar Bro's wheelhouse farming while hovering a lane for protection.
To the delight of DFS players worldwide, Royal Never Give Up will be low-owned dogs in this matchup, which is their sweet spot. We're getting them on the cheap versus a sometimes sloppy and over-aggressive TES team that gives up 21.5 deaths in their losses. RNG has my highest projected kill total on the slate in a win by a fair margin.
They will win if they control the bot lane and start stacking up those dragons. They will use their vision to set up around the objectives first and force TES to come to them or face check places they shouldn't be. Unlike game one, where they drafted a team fighting comp into JDG, I want to see them focus more on the map and a split push style. Scaling will be challenging to pull off against the strength of TES, but something like Azir can impact early fights with his ulty and still provide heavy DPS late.
I often like to use regular sports analogies to introduce people to league, and this is 100% striker versus grappler in MMA. RNG cannot stand and bang with TES, who are the Francis Ngannou of the LPL. They need to avoid those bombs and drag TES into deep waters by forcing them to make difficult decisions at critical objectives. Something they didn't or were unable to do with JDG. If RNG lands their takedowns, TES could be in trouble, and RNG could break the slate. I do prefer TES in this matchup as I find their style to be easier to accomplish. I think you should hedge RNG if you're running multiple lineups.
Top TES plays
- Knight - MID- leads the team in KP% and KS% in patch 11.5.
- Zhou - SUP - he's second in KP%.
- Karsa - JNG - sits second in KS%.
- 369 - TOP - good numbers, and one way to impede RNG is to camp top.
Top RNG plays
- With their high team KP% you can add them anywhere you like, but I do prefer Gala and Ming due to the bot lane being a primary win condition for the squad.
Summary
- TLDR: SBG 2-1, Gen G 2-0, FPX 2-0, and TES 2-0. Brion has the dog or pass number bonus today, and even though I like SBG for the matchup, the numbers and the discount favor Fredit. RNG could be a slate breaker if they drag TES into fights on their terms.
- With the pricing on DK, it will be hard for me to move off FPX, but with Brion in the mix, I'll be able to afford TES just if they go all JDG up in RNG's business.
- Good luck and good night everyone, I'll see you back here tomorrow after your brackets and mine all bust. We can then worry about the crucial brackets for the LPL and LCK playoffs.
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