RADIO
Fellow DFS players, ladies, and gentlemen, tomorrow we are blessed with the first 4 game LPL/LCK League of Legends slate on Draftkings and Fanduel. Welcome back, as it's opening day for the LCK, while the LPL started a couple of days ago. It's early in the splits, so the stats/analysis will be based on last spring unless new roster moves were made. On a side note, I exclusively play on Draftkings. For Fanduel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
There were some roster changes that will be addressed when mentioning each team. Also, the LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) but we are going to project T1 starters based on who ended the last split and played in playoffs. LPL starters are found on Twitter too, as ill try to post/retweet those starting lineups as early as available.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Wednesday, June 9th, 2021. Thanks for checking out my debut article and let's jump right into the matchups!
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM: LSB (-210) vs. BRO (+165)
This is the first series of the LCK day, so starting lineups should be out for this one. A best of three between these 2 teams doesn't seem the most DFS appealing, but let's look a little deeper. Last split, LSB finished 8th (6-12 W/L) while BRO finished last in 10th place (5-13.) BRO finished dead last in multiple statistic categories including but not limited to CKPM, KDA, EGR, GD15 and GPR to name a few. BRO did however finish 2nd in WPM and edges out LSB in the vision category. LSB, statistically, placed as a middle-tier team and edges out BRO when it comes to most team stat categories. LSB is definitely a top side/ rift herald-oriented team, with only a 44% DRG%. BRO holds a slight advantage in DRG% and will still probably opt for more late-game teamfighting/ dragon scaling win conditions.
As favorites, I would expect LSB to come out and look to push the pace more than usual and be able to control the tempo/pace of the game. Summit has shown he can play carry top laners and carry his team to victory, and FATE has also shown glimpses of promise on mages. However, it's hard to justify a 4 man LSB stack against a team that was dead last in CKPM, even though LBS themselves finished 2nd in CKPM. BRO is content with putting Hena (if he starts) on a late-game carry, and "losing gracefully" per se, as BRO averaged the least amount of deaths/game out of the 6 teams that had at least 25 losses. Lava is the player that would bridge the early/mid-game in order to get to that late game Hena carry point. In general, the LCK league is slower-paced and less bloody than the LPL, and there are better games to target on this slate, as this one could be a snoozer.
Give me LSB to win this one 2-1. Since it's early in the split, teams are still trying to cement their playstyles, or experiment with new ones. I think BRO takes a game off LSB, simply off LSB throwing their lead somehow, making this a great series to fade in my opinion, or looking to a BRO 1 off with Hena if you really need the savings. If I was making 10 lineups tomorrow, I would have 1 with a 4 man LSB if they sweep and really push the kill total vs an inferior team. LSB is a team I do not trust, however, and has shown to play down to the opponent's level at times.
Top plays: NONE / FADE
7:00 AM: T1 (-210) vs. HLE (+165)
An entertaining matchup for the 2nd LCK series of the day, between titans Faker and Chovy. T1 finished 4th last split while HLE finished 3rd. We won't have lineups for this series but expect these teams to start who they ended with the last split. T1 was a headache last split if you rostered them during their roster swap mania portion of the season, as they had a load of sub risk throughout the split. T1 SHOULD send out Canna, Cuzz, Faker, Teddy, and Keria(every player holds sub risk except Keria) HLE should start Morgan, YoHan, Chovy, Deft, and Vsta. (Morgan and YoHan both hold sub risk.) I think T1 will let the veterans do the heavy lifting this split in order to make worlds, but we will see what changes are made throughout the split, for both teams.
Statistically, T1 holds the slight edge in EGR, GD15, FT%, F3T%, while HLE holds a small advantage in DRG%, MLR, and vision statistics. Historically, Faker has had success into Chovy's teams as well, last season going 4-1 in the H2H. HLE drafts are some to be questioned at times, but will the shift towards the new meta improve their chances over the early courses of the split? Mid lane seems as open as ever, with ganking junglers becoming less prominent again due to the comeback XP buffs, while top laners are also piling up jungle-like stats too. I think the meta certainly helps HLE, as they are known to get scrappy and opt into 2v2s and 3v3s over 5v5 teamfights.
If T1 wins, I can confidently say Faker will be heavily involved in the action(68 KP%), as putting resources into stifling Chovy is certainly a strategy to take down HLE, while Teddy should also be involved in drag fights and skirmishes with his team-leading 70 KP%. As for HLE, if you did not attend the Church of Chovy last split, then you were missing out on some insanely high-level solo-carrying experiences. The org is also pretty high on YoHan, who would definitely need a big series to take down T1, along with Deft, who leads his team in KS%.
T1 takes this series 2-1. These games could become bloodier than anticipated, with both teams over a 0.75 CKPM, and is the more appealing LCK series to get secondary stacks from. These 2 teams are pretty well-matched lane by lane, but I give T1 a slight edge in each lane. This T1 roster iteration was the best one last split, going 11-5 in their games last split, and closed out the 2nd half of last split strong, against decent competition too. HLE is live but I think they will come in slightly over-owned because they can help you fit in FPX and LNG.
Top T1 Plays:
- Faker - MID - in most critical lane matchup, has to perform well and be involved for T1 to win
- Teddy - ADC- highest kill share % on team
- Cuzz - JGL - lowest death% on team
- Keria - SUP - pairs well with Teddy, and is 69 kp% involved, while Canna only holds 59%
Top HLE Plays:
- Chovy - MID - if church is in session, then Chovy will lead your lineups to the promised land
- Deft - ADC- highest kill share % on team
- YoHan - JGL - meta is shifting towards farming junglers
- Keria - SUP - pairs well with Teddy, and is 69 kp% involved, while Canna only holds 59%
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: FPX (-2500) vs. UP (+1000)
Well if you watched FPXs last match vs RW, then you're probably asking yourself, can FPX beat UP(formerly known as Star) in faster than 17 minutes? FPX are coming off a 17 min game 1 victory and a 23 min game 2 vs RW, an absolute speedrun. This will be UPs debut series, with the new starting roster of zs, H4cker, xiaociaobao, Smlz, and Shiauc. FPX will roll out the same players from the RW series.
This match comes down to if FPX wants to play a little looser than normal, as they literally have an advantage in every major stat category except FB% and WPM. The game should revolve around the bottom side of the map, as xiaociaobao (coming from Young Miracles LDL) isn't a resource-heavy player. He is a mage player with a Ryze pocket pick that can play the side lane well, just not sure if he is ready to carry vs the big boys quite yet. Maybe FPX will try out some different picks/team comps (see game 2 FPX comp vs RW) and make mistakes during the game that Shiauc can capitalize on along with Smlz. These 2 have to have the series of their lives if they want to upset. UP averaged 18 deaths in losses the last split, while FPX averaged 19 in wins. FPX is in a good spot here to turn up the pace and grab a few more kills this time around as compared to their last match vs RW. Then again FPX may just go default compositions since they are on a short week and want to just get in, and get out, get ready for scrims, no matter how the victory comes.
FPX win this series 2-0 in a similar fashion vs RW. Another situation similar to 2 nights ago where FPX swept but only had 12 kills in game 1 and 10 in game 2. If that's the case, they are probably not going to end up as the optimal 4 man stack, meaning I would limit my exposure in this game to mini stacks, prioritizing LWX/Crisp and/or the team slot. Beating UP (just like beating RW) is not really a benchmark for how great a team is at the moment, but top tier team FPX should speedrun this series 2-0 as well, not really much to go over here. I don't think UP keeps it competitive enough for FPX to drag this one out and grab more kills.
Top FPX Plays:
- LWX- ADC - Mid-tier ADC stats, but is in the most critical matchup today and has to show up, team leader in KS%
- Crisp - SUP - Big playmaker/roamer for the team, will make some big plays and be involved in this bot-centric game setting
- FPX - TEAM - Most likely sweep outcome/ 10DRG% advantage over UP
7:00 AM: LNG (+1150) vs. V5 (-115)
Lastly, we have the gatekeepers of the LPL vs the most developmental team(at this point in time) in the league in V5. This matchup is very straightforward. LNG last split handled business vs teams lower than them in the standings. It was vs the top tier competition where their weaknesses really showed, that being they don't really have a playstyle/identity. Light and Lwandy performed well but even they weren't consistent enough to get leads on their own every game. Tarzan and Icon never really solidified their 2v2 skirmishing, and Ale we saw way less of the last split as compared to M1kuya. V5 are interesting because they have names we haven't even heard of, essentially a rookie roster with Uniboy as the most recognized name. However, V5 is also interesting because the head Coach Domo left team WE last split and came to coach at V5. Domo thrives in this setting, working with young talent and trying to develop them, while also playing to their strengths.
The stats comparisons in this matchup don't mean as much to me because V5 has 4!! players coming from LDL in Invincible, Pzx, Kepler, and ZYF. The step-up in competition is fierce, especially for guys that aren't prodigal talents. Invincible and Kepler are both resource-heavy carry players, so it will take V5 some time to figure out how to play around these types. From what I've read/studied Kepler is the more apt carry out of the two, making him a 1 off that I would want exposure to if I need the salary savings. But on this slate, I don't think you need to look in the LPL games for a 1 off when the 2 LCK matches are projected to be closer.
LNG 2-0 this one, Light and Lwandy carry just like last split, with playmaking also coming from Tarzan. I don't see V5 putting up a valiant fight here. Against a lower-tier team is a spot where I want to hop on V5. This game is really just a talent/skill check in my opinion. V5 new rookies will make mistakes, and LNGs veteran squad will capitalize and close out their games comfortably. My only qualm is LNG was the slower-paced team last year in the whole league with a 0.74 CKPM. They could ALSO end up in a similar FPX vs RW result where they don't really push the pace because they won't need to. I think they come out swinging on the rookies to get their confidence/morale up for the early part of the split.
Top LNG plays:
- Light - ADC - team leader in KS%, 2nd in KP% behind lwandy, top 5 in the whole league in KP% in victories, heavily involved
- Lwandy - SUP - right there with Light
- Tarzan- JGL - should have no problem in this matchup
- Icon - MID - will be lower owned than light, has somewhat tough but still very winnable lane matchup vs Uniboy(plays more supportive picks anyways) and some carry potential left in the tank if you want to get different at captain(3rd of all mid laners last split in KS% )
Summary
- TLDR: LSB 2-1, T1 2-1, FPX 2-0, LNG 2-0, the slate breaking game in my opinion is the T1 vs HLE matchup. Truly could go either way in 3 games, if I had to choose a sweep to come through from the LCK it would be through LSB.
- I think ownership will be on both LPL favorites, with smaller pieces from the LCK first game, as I think most will rely on LSB sweep. If you would like to get contrarian in tournaments, then 4 man T1 lineups(assuming they sweep) are the way to go as they put up LPL like numbers a few slates last split. HLE has had nuclear games before as far as to kill totals. (They lost a game 28-6 to nong shim RF last split and then won the next game 26-17. Can turn into a massacre of a series)
- Hopefully, we don't have any surprises for starting lineups, it's early in the split so we also don't have any stats to go off yet.
That's it, for now, Summoners, good luck tomorrow!
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