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We continue looking at ADP risers and fallers through the offseason as we already completed our first run back in June. You can check our first review of the early-summer risers and fallers at running back, wide receiver, tight end, and quarterback.
Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player in your team.
ADPs are helpful to gauge the average value of players on draft day as viewed by the competition.
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Tight Ends - ADP Fallers
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
Although David Njoku's ADP has trended upwards during the days leading up to this writeup, the drop has been of more than 1.5 rounds overall during the past month. Njoku is entering his fourth year in the league but only has two seasons worth considering he missed 12 games alone last season. Oh, and this offseason has definitely been a wild one for the TE after he asked for a trade out of Cleveland and then no longer was pursuing a move at the start of August.
At his peak level, Njoku is a potential 150-PPR point player. The problem when it comes to improving his fantasy results is he will share the field with Austin Hooper, who the team acquired this offseason as a free agent, thus making Njoku the TE2 of the Browns instead of the leading man at the position. Not only that, but he'll need to fight for opportunities with a stacked offense that includes the likes of Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry (both top-24 WRs) as receivers, and Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt as rushers with pass-catching prowess.
In their last run of projections, PFF has the Miami product finishing 2020 with a paltry 77 PPR points, which is way below Hooper's 132, and just 8.4 percent of the team's targets (Hooper would see 14.7 percent of them). As crazy as it might sound, Njoku is currently a better value pick than Hooper, which doesn't mean he's a better fantasy player or play, though. That is what happens when you have an overall ADP of 222. It's hard not to play above that level, although Njoku projects to finish the year as the 220th-best fantasy player, so he's an average bet at the very best. If you play in a league with 40 roster-spots per team, then go and get him just in case Hooper gets injured down the road or something. If you don't, absolutely fade him.
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings
At the same time Irv Smith Jr.'s ADP is getting up by the day, Kyle Rudolph's has plummeted more than a round in redraft leagues during the past few weeks. While Smith is the youngest of the two and should make a jump in his sophomore year this season, Rudolph is the veteran and proven tight end on these Vikings. And it is not the mere age/experience factor that will swing things in favor of one or the other. Both TEs project to finish 2020 very closely in the PPR leaderboard, with Smith Jr. at 120 PPR and Rudolph at 109 himself.
What is the main difference though? The price to pay for those similar production levels. While Smith (TE20) ranks two spots ahead of Rudolph (TE22) in 2020 projections, the price these two are getting drafted by is widely separated. In fact, Smith's current ADP of 135 overall (12th round) is more than 50 spots higher than Rudolph's at 189 (undrafted in 12-team leagues). The projections are quite different for a measly 10-point PPR difference.
What does all of this mean? Well, you should fade Smith and his rising ADP and aim to draft Rudolph with a last-round pick or snatch him up from the waiver wire as soon as he enters it. This makes the veteran TE your super-sub and stream option from the bench if you have another player to start weekly. Rudolph is the only player with a positive ROI among the top-30 TEs right now and he could turn into a much better value if Smith doesn't improve in his second year or flops a bit through the season.
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
Dawson Knox is entering his second NFL season as the leading tight end for the Buffalo Bills. Tyler Kroft will back him up as the TE2, but he shouldn't be that much of a threat to get opportunities from Knox. Looking at PFF projections, Knox should be the fourth most-targeted Bill, getting around 12.7 percent of the offensive targets. That's actually not horrific, as he ranks 22nd among TEs in the NFL.
Even if he gets there in terms of opportunities and plays efficiently, Knox is not worth the price currently being paid for his services. Fantasy GMs have realized this and it has led to a drop of almost a full round in his ADP during the past month. The 23-year-old is getting off draft boards as the TE26 (ADP of 163 OVR), yet he projects to finish with under 100 PPR points (97) and as just the 194th-best player in 2020 fantasy leagues. As you can see, that's a 30+ difference between ADP and final rank, making Knox a poor value at his current average draft position.
Either the downtrend shown in the TE's ADP keeps going for a while leading up to the start of the year, or drafting Knox would be a terrible move for any fantasy GM this season. Up to four tight ends (Gerald Everett, Kyle Rudolph, Will Dissly, and Nick Boyle) project to finish 2020 with 100+ PPR points and are currently getting drafted after Knox, so you know what to do.
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