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After nearly two years without March Madness, the NCAA Tournament has returned! That means it's time to complete your brackets and we're here to help. RotoBaller will be bringing you a full breakdown on each tournament region, including some potential sleepers and busts. Today we'll be taking a look at the Midwest Region.
We'll run through the highly seeded teams in this region, some sleepers, busts to watch out for, and who I like to represent this region in the Final Four.
Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts and guides on how to fill out your brackets.
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Midwest Region Top Four Seeds
Top four seeds: No. 1 Illinois, No. 2 Houston, No. 3 West Virginia, No. 4 Oklahoma State
Illinois is one of the hottest teams in college basketball, having lost just once since mid-January. The Illini completed their charge to a top seed by winning the Big Ten Tournament in dramatic fashion on Sunday. The Selection Committee rewarded the Illini with a No. 1 seed, yet the road to the Final Four is far from a cakewalk. This region is loaded with Final Four caliber teams.
That list starts with Houston. The Cougars are 24-3 this season, with all three losses coming in true road games in conference play. Houston ranks in the top 20 in the nation in offensive and defensive efficiency, joining only top seeds Gonzaga, Michigan, and Illinois. Kansas transfer Quentin Grimes has settled in as the go-to-guy in Kelvin Sampson's offense, scoring 18.0 points per game. The most concerning thing about Houston is the Cougars' tendency to commit bail out fouls. Only five teams in college basketball allowed their opponents to score a higher percentage of their points at the free throw line. Over-aggressiveness from Houston got the Cougars in trouble. If the officials call a tight game, Houston is in trouble.
West Virginia slots in as the 3-seed, following a great run in the Big XII this season. Bob Huggins isn't playing his usual "Press Virginia" style. This team is more talented on the offensive end than the past Mountaineer teams that won games with defensive pressure and forced turnovers. Strong shooters dot the perimeter while Deuce McBride creates off the dribble and Derek Culver mans the paint. The Mountaineers love to attack the rim and led their conference in free throw rate.
Lastly, Oklahoma State is likely disappointed with a 4-seed. The Cowboys have looked like one of the nation's most competitive teams of late, racking up 10 Quad 1 wins. Cade Cunningham, a near certainty to be the top pick in this year's NBA Draft, runs the show as a tall, creative point guard. He operates the Cowboy offense, but the role players around him have improved in so many ways this season, preventing teams from overloading their defense toward Cunningham.
Most Intriguing First Round Matchup
No. 8 Loyola-Chicago vs No. 9 Georgia Tech
Two teams who just won their conference tournaments, in multi-bid leagues, now squaring off in the first round. The "8 vs. 9" games always fly a little under-the-radar, since they don't have the excitement of a possible upset. That shouldn't be the case here. These are two of the most interesting teams in the field.
Loyola ended the season with the top defensive according to Adjusted defensive efficiency, holding average opponents to just 0.86 points per possession. Offensively, senior center Cameron Krutwig, who contributed to the Ramblers' Final Four run four years ago, runs the show from the high post. His whirling, spinning post moves and brilliant court vision has fans calling him "Jesuit Jokic".
Georgia Tech, meanwhile, is one of the most aggressive defensive teams in the nation. The Yellow Jackets hound opposing ball handlers, reaching for steals whenever possible. Point guard Jose Alvarado is particularly feisty and should make life difficult for Loyola's Braden Norris. This one should stay low scoring, but if the Yellow Jackets are making shots, they should have the upper hand.
Bust of the Region
While this region does have a real chance to stay chalk, there are definitely some reasons for pessimism around Oklahoma State. The Cowboys played incredible basketball in February and early March, though it's valid to wonder if they can repeat that level of play. Over their last 11 games, the Cowboys have won nine times. Three of those wins came in overtime and eight of them came by single digits. Eventually, they won't be able to continue skating by so narrowly.
Final Four Pick
Despite the difficult path laid in front of the Illini, it's really hard to pick against Illinois here. Brad Underwood has built a beautiful team in Champagne, centered around Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn, both of whom made first-team All-Big Ten. The role players around the Illinois stars have settled in perfectly, making shots when needed and defending their positions. Freshman Andre Curbelo has the chance to be the X-factor who elevates the Illini to the next level. When Dosunmu and Cockburn have tough matchups, foul trouble, or an off-game, Illinois turns to Curbelo, who is a wizard with the ball in his hands. If he can continue to create offense for his teammates, it's hard to see any team in this region topping the Illini.
