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Welcome back, RotoBallers!
Well, we've made it to August, and (so far) we still have baseball! Here's hoping the number of positive tests begins decreasing so we can finish this season. I started out slow for the first few days, but since Steve picked back up on this series on Tuesday, I heated up quickly! Let's see if I can keep that momentum going for you on this beautiful Saturday full of MLB, NHL, NBA, and PGA action. Man it feels great to have sports back!
As you may already know, Steve Janik and I will be sharing the duties of writing up an MLB Betting article every day of the week! All season long we'll be supplying you MLB betting articles with a few of our favorite picks for the day in baseball. Along with the picks, we'll give a little write-up with some supporting evidence for the picks, and we'll keep track of our records throughout the course of the season. You can always find my updated picks for the day as well as my running tally @BellRoto on Twitter. I'll also do my best to continue posting my picks there on my "Off Days" for this series.
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- 2020 Season Total: 20-19
Without further ado, let's get to the picks for today's slate. Please make sure to follow me on Twitter @BellRoto, as I'll post any updates and/or additions to these picks there throughout the day. I'll also field any questions or comments on Twitter as well as in our Premium RotoBaller Slack Chat under the Sports Betting channel. Here we go!
Cincinnati Reds (-175) at Detroit Tigers
O/U: 9
CIN: Trevor Bauer, DET: Michael Fulmer
This pitching matchup could not be more lopsided. Trevor Bauer struck out 13 Tigers just six days ago, and barely broke a sweat doing it. He looked dominant, his pitches had life, and it helps that the Detroit lineup lacks any real threats on offense.
Then, just a day later, Michael Fulmer came out and let up three homers in 2.2 innings pitched, on top of a few more hard hit line drives for hits. He looked rusty, which is reasonable considering his return from Tommy John surgery. I don't think that issue gets solved today, and I'd be surprised to see him throw more than three innings even if he avoids the long ball.
It definitely helps the Tigers marginally that they just saw Bauer's stuff, but I don't think it really matters here. Bauer is too dominant not to back in this spot, and the Reds offense has pop all over the place. This was almost a two unit play for me, but I think I'll throw it into a (off the record) mini-parlay instead.
Pick: Reds ML (-175) 1 Unit
Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins (-120)
O/U: 8.5
CLE: Carlos Carrasco, MIN: Kenta Maeda
We get a great pitching matchup in the Twin Cities today, but I think Carrasco impressed me just a bit more last time out. Coming off his battle with Leukemia throughout last season, he threw 87 pitches and struck out 10 Royals over six innings. Now, these Twins are a little more dangerous than the Kansas City team that CC just faced, but I think his confidence builds and we see more strikeout-filled success.
Meanwhile, Maeda was solid in his Minnesota debut, allowing just two runs in five innings. A Luis Robert bomb in the fifth was the only real damage, but the success wasn't as dominant as Carrasco's, as Maeda took 84 pitches to complete the fifth. Still, not bad.
These lineups are pretty comparable as well, which makes sense when you consider the close betting line. I'm going to take the Indians here just based on pure pitching upside and a little more home run pop throughout their lineup. I also love the speed in the bottom half of their lineup (I'm looking at you Oscar Mercado) that can set things up for their big hitters up top. Give me the underdog in Cleveland!
Pick: Indians ML (Even) 1 Unit
Houston Astros (-166) at Los Angeles Angels
O/U: 9
HOU: Zack Greinke, LAA: Griffin Canning
Quick analysis here: Greinke stunk in his season opener, and we get a deflated line on him because of that. It also helps that the young prospect, Canning looked pretty good, striking out seven in his 2020 debut. However, this Houston lineup is going to be a gauntlet for the young gun, and I fully expect Greinke to get back to his 2019 ways against a Mike Trout-less Angels lineup. Putting -175 down above and -166 down here isn't ideal, but both numbers should be higher, so I'm gonna hop on!
Remember to check me out on Twitter @Bellroto to see if I add any more picks throughout the day. Let's enjoy some baseball!
Pick: Astros ML (-166) 1 Unit
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