MLB Betting Picks (8/7/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

Things didn’t go our way Thursday. Our F5 under was smooth sailing until the bottom of the fourth when the A’s tacked on four runs, giving them five total. Then Milwaukee’s offense decided to come alive, while getting a great effort from Josh Lindblom. I have no regrets in the plays, they just didn’t work out.

• Wednesday, August 5th: 0-2 (-2 units)
• 2020 Season Total: 8-9-2 (-1.34 units)

We keep teetering around splitting even for the season but honestly, I'll take that in such a weird season. I feel obligated to remind you I'm not a professional and that each play is most likely going to be "bet to lose" one unit. For those of you that followed my KBO run, there is a large amount of luck involved in this but this is all supposed to be fun so please only do this if you enjoy it.

Myself, along with Tommy Bell have been busy bringing you daily analysis, recommendations, and predictions for this wild 2020 MLB season. I'm here to bring you my insight for the MLB slate on Friday, August 7th. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Good luck and play smart!

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

O/U: 10

ATL: Kyle Wright, PHI: Vince Velasquez

Atlanta's fourth ranked prospect, Wright, has been all over the place through his first two starts, totaling five runs over six innings with an 8/7 K/BB. Focusing heavy on his fastball/slider combo, his 32.8 Whiff % would be a career high. Someone has to step up in Mike Soroka's absence, Wright could be the person to do it. The Braves' lineup makes things a little easier on the young hurler. As of this writing, they're slashing .276/.357/.490 with 14 homers against RHP, and thats with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman starting off a little slow. There's much more to be had here.

Velasquez hasn't quite lived up to the expectations many had of him when he joined the Phillies in 2016. Somehow he's just 28, but he hasn't been great in Citizen's Bank Park, going 13-15 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.262 WHIP. It's his first time throwing since July 26 so he's definitely fresh, but situations could line up better for him. Offensively, things haven't been so great either, especially at home; they're slashing just .240/.333/.400. On Thursday, J.T. Realmuto drove in three with a homer while the team scattered eight hits but overall, this offense is still going to take some time to make up for the days they had off.

Velasquez just flat out isn't a viable option. The Braves are the better offense, and Wright gives them more upside on the bump.

Pick: Atlanta ML -108 (Draftkings) 1 Unit

Minnesota Twins (-190) at Kansas City Royals

O/U: 9.5

MIN: Devin Smeltzer, KC: Jakob Junis 

The day following a walk-off loss, it's sad the Twins have to look to Devin Smeltzer. He's barely thrown over 50 major league innings, but he's been terrible on the road. With over a seven ERA in 20.1 innings, he's allowed seven homers with a .337/.387/.663 slash line. The Twins' lineup is one of the best, but keep in mind they did get stymied by Trevor Williams on Wednesday, so they're not invincible. Just two regulars are batting over .300 but 10 hitters have clubbed a homer already. As a team, they're slashing .239/.321/.450 with over a .200 ISO, so while they're not perfect, they're more than capable of doing damage.

Junis has sure enough had his stretches of making people think he's capable to pitch in the bigs, but at the end of the day no one is fooled; his career 15 HR/FB% speaks for itself. His home ERA was worse than a full point higher last year and this year he's in the lower half of every major sabermetric category. Offensively, they're outperforming their 2019 pace. Hitting .287 against southpaws is a far cry from the .246 clip they hit last year, but with guys like Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, and Maikel Franco there is plenty of option within this lineup.

Neither pitcher is anywhere close to being stable at the major league level. Minnesota is far superior to KC in almost every way, but the offenses will really take precedent here.

Pick: Over 9.5 (+100, Draftkings) 1 Unit, 

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