RADIO
Had to take a personal day off from betting on Thursday, life just too busy. My apologies but we’re back to open up the weekend with some winners!
By now, most of you have been reading these already so you know where I'm coming from and how long I've been writing up betting picks. I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
As mentioned, it's been a tough start to the season in betting terms, but the team here at RotoBaller is here to give you top-notch analysis. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Friday, April 23. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 1-3 (-2.15u)
O/U Record: 7-2 (+4.45u)
Runline Record: 2-4 (-2.1u)
First 5 Record: 3-2-2 (+.56u)
Prop Record: 1-2-1 (-.96u)
2021 Total Record: 14-13-3 (-.48u)
Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants
O/U: 7.5 | SFG -120 MIA +114
Miami: Sandy Alcantara; San Francisco: Alex Wood
Alcantara has been very steady, finishing at least six complete innings in all four starts and his metrics back up his performance. He faced these same Giants his last time out and surrendered four runs but didn't walk any while striking out seven. He'll look for some backup from the lineup who has hit LHP pretty well so far, posting an .812 OPS, .174 ISO, and 126 wRC+. Missing Starling Marte (rib) is tough blow, but there's enough production in the rest of the lineup to put pressure on Wood.
Wood held off these Marlins in his season debut April 18, throwing five scoreless innings on three hits with four strikeouts. The 30-year-old has just 47.2 IP with a 6.09 ERA over the previous two seasons, so it’s tough to gauge where he’s really at after one start. Offensively, the Giants stack up better against LHP, so a .294 wOBA against RHP as a team is worrisome, especially with Brandon Belt (quadriceps) possibly out or at the very least, banged up.
Look for the Marlins to avenge the 3-0 loss on Thursday by getting a big start from Alcantara while the offense should be able to get to Alex Wood in his first home start as a Giant.
Pick: Marlins ML (+114, Fanduel) 1 Unit
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
O/U: 7.5 | CIN -108 STL -108
Cincinnati: Sonny Gray; St. Louis: Kwang Hyun Kim
Both arms in this game have just one 2021 start under their belt. Gray has shown his dominant ways in the past, but he also goes through the coldest of cold stretches. However, his first two years in Cincy have produced great results and if they hope to make a playoff run this year, he’ll be crucial to their success. The lineup has been carrying their weight so far, averaging 6.2 runs per game, the most in MLB. Although it hasn’t carried them to winning ways, as they’re on a four-game skid right now.
St. Louis has been on a brutal stretch their L10, going 3-7 and now finding themselves at the bottom of the NL Central. Kim, the 32-year-old KBO product was near spotless in 2020, going 3-0 in eight games, including seven starts with a 1.62 ERA. His first outing this year, he gave up three runs on five hits in just three innings with four strikeouts. Teams have a bit more of a scouting report on the southpaw now, so the odds may change for him in 2021. The Cards’ lineup has been a mixed bag the last two series’, scoring nine or more twice, with just four runs in the other four games. Against RHP, they’re rather boom or bust, boasting a .295 wOBA but have a .167 ISO with 37 extra-base hits.
Cincy has a clear starting pitching advantage in this one and if they’re offense is truly as strong as they’ve been playing, they could cash this over themselves if they get to Kim early and often. I don’t think it will be that easy, but I think this total winds up around nine. To back this up, check out my colleague Frank Ammirante’s O/U spreadsheet, it’s a great tool to utilize this season!
Pick: Over 7.5 (-117, Barstool Sportsbook) 1 Unit
Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox
O/U: 9.5 | BOS -134 SEA +120
Seattle: Yusei Kikuchi; Boston: Martin Perez
Kikuchi has been reeling downwards since his first start where he rattled off 10 strikeouts. He’s been solid his first time through the order, then things tend to fall off the rails, allowing just one run and three hits when seeing hitters for the first time.
Pete hasn’t exactly been an innings eater for the Red Sox, lasting no more than five complete in his first three starts. He’s been limiting hard contact, yet struggling to get hitters to chase or whiff, capping his upside.
We’re going No Run First Inning here. Boston has a -7 wRC+ against LHP in the first inning. Meanwhile, Seattle hasn’t had problems getting to pitchers early, but I’m trusting Perez’s ability to limit hard contact here and keep the ball on the ground. If Perez can get through the top half of the first, I like Kikuchi’s chances to keep Boston at bay.
Pick: First Inning Runs Under 0.5 (+100, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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