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Following last Friday's sweep, we were close to repeating that feat on Saturday. The Marlins and Phillies hit the under comfortably, playing out a rain-delays six-run game. Nathan Eovaldi struck out six Yankees in a rain-shortened game to hit the over but the Mets and Pirates broke our hearts. Taking under nine total runs, things looked good heading into the bottom of the eighth with the Mets up 6-0. Unfortunately, the game ended 9-7 to the Pirates as the Mets bullpen had a monstrous meltdown. Harsh on us, but still a profitable day and we still hit five from six winning bets last weekend.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Brua Tagovailoaić (@LucidMediaDFS) will be giving out the free picks during the week throughout the season, with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 4-6 (-2.27 U)
- O/U Record: 7-9-1 (-1.80 U)
- Runline Record: 1-4 (-2.42 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 5-12 (-5.12 U)
- Prop Record: 17-11 (+6.23 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 34-42-1 (-5.38 U)
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
O/U: 10.5 | Moneyline: DET +115, KCR -125
DET: Wily Peralta | KCR: Kris Bubic
The Tigers come into this on a seven-game win streak while the Royals come into this series following a two-game sweep of the Brewers which came on the back of losing eight of their previous ten games.
Since July 01st, the Tigers wRC+ of 113 is tied-eighth in MLB and they also rank tied-seventh in SLG (.453) and ninth in ISO (.193). Meanwhile, the Royals rank 24th in wRC+ (87), 22nd in SLG (.383) and 25th in ISO (.138) this month.
Peralta is having a great spell in the Tigers rotation. He has a 1.64 ERA on the year in seven appearances (six starts) over 33.0 IP. His 3.58 xERA, 4.50 xFIP and 4.77 SIERA all scream regression is coming, but the Royals offense hasn't shown they can be the team that will be able to put up runs against the veteran rightie. If you believe in the revenge game narrative, Peralta was previously with the Royals and had a 4.82 ERA over 74.2 IP between 2018-19.
Bubic will make his ninth start of the year tonight and the young pitcher has a 5.03 ERA so far this year (16 appearances and 62.2 IP). His 5.85 xERA, 5.07 xFIP and 5.04 SIERA tells us he's not been unlucky this year, just bad. His ERA as a starter this year is 6.34 and the 23-year-old now has a 4.71 career ERA in MLB (112.2 IP) after making his debut last year.
Neither bullpen has been good in 2021 and since June 01st, the Royals bullpen ERA is 5.42 (fourth-worst) while the Tigers 5.14 bullpen ERA is sixth-worst. The game could well end up as a crapshoot in the later innings. A lot of early money is on the Tigers which isn't surprising given they opened at +145.
I hate backing teams on a long-win streak as it will end sooner rather than later but the odds are still too generous to ignore this one, although there's a chance the Tigers start the game as favorites given the money going on them.
Pick: First 5 innings - Tigers (+105) 0.5 Units
Pick: Moneyline - Tigers (+115) 0.5 Units
Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: CWS +110, MIL -115
CWS: Lucas Giolito | MIL: Freddy Peralta
The two Central Division leaders both look likely they'll be in the playoffs with the White Sox currently nine games ahead of the Indians and the Brewers 6.5 games ahead of the Reds. The Brewers did just lose both games against the Royals and are 5-5 over their last ten games and 8-8 in July while the White Sox are 7-3 over their last ten games and are 11-6 in July.
The White Sox offense has a league-leading 136 wRC+, .236 ISO and .512 SLG in July. The Brewers offense has been struggling a bit in July with a 102 wRC+ (15th), .144 ISO (24th) and tied-19th in SLG (.393). They have averaged 4.69 runs per game this month, but the White Sox are averaging 5.94 runs per game. The White Sox have scored five or more runs in 12 of their 17 July games.
Giloito has had an up and down year but his ERA now sits at 3.90 (19 starts and 113.0 IP) and comes into this on the back of a complete game against the Astros in which he allowed just one run (a solo homer) on three hits and no walks, while striking out eight. He now has a 3.55 ERA over his last ten starts and his 3.37 xERA on the year suggests his ERA should only get better in the second half.
Peralta has been excellent for the Brewers with a 2.39 ERA on the year over 98.0 IP (17 starts and one relief appearance). Over his last three starts, Peralta has a 3.71 ERA (seven earned runs over 17.0 IP) from seven hits and 11 walks. His 11.4% BB% this year is in the 21st percentile and the BB% is 15.3% over his last three starts.
The White Sox has a team 10.1% BB% on the year, which is tied-fifth best in MLB and their 10.2% BB% against right-handed pitching since June 01st is also fifth-best in MLB, so they're a prime candidate to take advantage of any control issues Peralta has. This game will likely be decided by how many times the White Sox can take advantage of the walks they take.
The Brewers do have an edge from their bullpen but not hugely. Their 3.71 ERA on the year is ninth-best and only marginally better than the White Sox 4.07 ERA (12th best). Since June 01st, the Brewers relievers have been much better and their 2.77 ERA is second-best in the Majors, while the White Sox 4.57 ERA ranks 17th.
Pick: Moneyline - White Sox (+110) 1 Unit
Prop Bet
Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners
Yusei Kikuchi is having his best season with the Mariners. His 3.92 ERA is a career-low in MLB and his 25.2% K% is his highest. However, he's facing a lineup that has the sixth-lowest K% against LHP since June 01st (20.6%) and since July 01st, their K% against LHP is 18.7%.
Kikuchi struck out seven in his last start against the Angels but the last time prior to that he reached seven strikeouts was also the Angels back on June 05th (seven starts ago). The last time he struck out seven or more against a team not from Anaheim was the Tigers on May 17th (11 starts ago). His last two starts lasted five innings each and went for 12 earned runs so he's had some struggles of late and even if the A's offense hasn't been great, they don't strike out much.
Kikuchi has faced Oakland once this year and only tallied three strikeouts in six innings back on May 24th.
Pick: Kikuchi under 6.5 Ks (-118) 1 Unit
Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs
Zac Gallen is facing the Cubs for the second straight start. Last weekend, he stuck out seven Cubs hitters in 5.2 IP and now has 56 Ks in 46.2 IP. He only threw 77 pitches as the Diamondbacks tread carefully since Gallen's early-season injury, but he also threw 84 pitches against the Padres on June 27th so should be able to go deep enough in this game to reach the six strikeouts he needs for the over.
The Cubs have a 28.5% K% against RHP since June 01st which is the worst in MLB and even since July 01st, their 26.0% K% still ranks third-worst in the Majors. Uncertainty about pending free-agents Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez likely isn't helping their situation given they could be traded at any moment. Their 77 wRC+ this month is fifth-worst also so it's unlikely they'll put up runs early and knock Gallen out of the game before he reaches the required six strikeouts.
Pick: Gallen over 5.5 Ks (+105) 1 Unit
One unit on the two-game parlay for the strikeout props also offers odds of +279 if you prefer to just go for that.
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