RADIO
We’re inching closer to May, and it’s been a wild start to the MLB season. It’s made betting on games exciting, but as with gambling on any sport, there have been plenty of frustrating moments thus far. As you can see below, I’m about as middle of the road as it gets, but have been having success with betting totals, but really struggling on picking sides. I’ll work to improve those numbers while still trying to find the best value on totals all season.
By now, most of you have been reading these already so you know where I'm coming from and how long I've been writing up betting picks. I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
As mentioned, it's been a tough start to the season in betting terms, but the team here at RotoBaller is here to give you top-notch analysis. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Monday, April 26. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 1-4 (-3.15u)
- O/U Record: 8-2 (+5.28u)
- Runline Record: 2-4 (-2.1u)
- First 5 Record: 3-2-2 (+.56u)
- Prop Record: 1-3-1 (-.96u)
- 2021 Total Record: 15-15-3 (-1.65u)
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves
O/U: 8.5 | ATL -180 CHC +155
Chicago: Zach Davies: Atlanta: Charlie Morton
Davies had had some weird outings to start 2021 with the Cubs. Sandwiched in between two starts with two runs allowed in each, are a pair of starts where he gave up 11 earned in just 5.2 innings. Davies starts off well, but once the lineup sees him once, things begin to unravel. Offensively, the Cubs had been putting on runs of late, until sunday came along and the Brewers blanked the Cubbies.
At 37, Morton has shown he’s more than capable of still running through lineups. Through 23 IP, he’s got a 27/7 K/BB and has allowed more than three runs just once in his first four starts. Similar to David, things start to get a little rocky the second time through the order, but there are few arms out there as steady as “Ground Chuck.” The Braves’ lineup got back their star, Ronald Acuna Jr., last week but that hasn’t provided immediate results, as the team got blanked across 14 innings of a double header with the Diamondbacks where they only registered one hit in both games.
Both starting pitchers have success their first time through the order. Chicago has been much stronger offensively of late, while Atlanta is struggling, but I look for both lineups to start a little sluggish before opening it up.
Pick: First Inning Total Runs Under 0.5 (-103, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
O/U: 9 | HOU -174 SEA +146
Seattle: Justus Sheffield: Houston: Jose Urquidy
Sheffield still has yet to live up to his lofty expectations coming through the minors. He’s shown some small signs but hasn’t put it together. Through three starts or 16.2 IP this season, he’s struggled with control (10 BB%) and has given up three homers. Against a powerful Houston lineup, keeping the ball in the yard is of the essence. He’ll have a solid lineup to back him up, as the Mariners’ lineup has averaged 5 runs per game over their L3 and average 4.8 rpg on the road. Three hitters have 13 or more RBI, including Mitch Haniger’s 17 thanks, in part, to five long balls. As a team, Seattle perform against RHP better on the road, carrying a respectable .704 OPS with 19 extra-base hits and 33 runs scored.
Urquidy is fresh off a terrible start, allowing four runs on six hits with just one strikeout and three walks over five frames. He’s been limiting hard contact for the most part, but an average launch angle of 26 degrees (third highest MLB) is very worrisome and will need to come down before balls start flying into bleachers at a high rate. Offensively, Houston is fresh off a great series against the Angels, scoring 31 runs in four games. They get a good matchup to start this series too, facing a LHP. As a team, they carry a .772 OPS with a 125 wRC+, both top 10 numbers in MLB.
These are two solid lineups who have been able to score runs to open 2021. Following the lines of Frank Ammirante’s Totals Spreadsheet, we can see that the over is 11-5 when the Mariners face a RHP, while the over is 8-3 when the Astros face a LHP (11x vs a LHP is the most in MLB).
Pick: Over 9 (-105, Fanduel) 1 Unit
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