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Hello again, RotoBallers! It's me, Thunder Dan, here with some MLB betting picks for this fine Monday, July 26th. While I usually only do this article on Sundays, I'm helping out the team today while our usual Monday columnist John Brubaker is handling our premium betting picks.
If you follow me for DFS coverage, don't worry - I bet on baseball just about every day, too! Just to let you know, I mainly bet on FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone is able to bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering, to go along with our awesome premium betting tools. John Brubaker (@LucidMediaDFS) and Jamie Steed (@Baseball_Jimbo) will be carrying the free picks on during the week throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight and PrizePicks DFS prop picks.
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Thunder Dan's 2021 MLB Betting Picks
Yesterday: 1-1
Season to Date: 11-14
The Astros had me sweating but were able to hang on for a 2-1 win over the Rangers, but the Tigers let us down in a big way as Tarik Skubal gave up two homers early and the Royals never looked back, cruising to an easy victory and a series sweep of Detroit.
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
O/U: 8.5| Moneyline: HOU -180
SEA: Darren McCaughan| HOU: Luis Garcia
This is a tough slate, I will be honest. With a lot of games with high totals and a few with really close pitching matchups, I'm going to start with the most lopsided matchup of the day.
The Astros offense has slowed down a bit lately, but this team is a nightmare matchup for the 25-year old rookie McCaughan. They have great plate discipline and will draw walks and wait for good pitches to hit. They also don't strike out often. McCaughan was able to hold the Rockies to one run over five innings, but he did so while walking three and failing to strike out anyone. His stats are AAA are underwhelming, too.
Meanwhile, Garcia has been awesome this year and has surprised a lot of people around the league with how well he's pitched. He's coming off a dominant six-inning performance against the Indians in which he shut them down while striking out eight.
With a significantly better pitcher on the bump and a much better offense, I'll go back to Houston run line today as I think they win comfortably on the road in this one.
Pick: Astros -1.5 (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
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#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.
Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
Tyler Anderson o/5.5 ✅
Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
Trevor Bauer o/8.5 ✅@RotoBaller @RotoBallerMLB peeps in our premium slack get access to customized strikeout projections daily! pic.twitter.com/ROWW11LTah— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) May 22, 2021
Colorado Rockies @ LA Angels
O/U: 8| Moneyline: LAA -155
COL: German Marquez | LAA: Shohei Ohtani
Here's our best pitchers' duel of the night and the lowest total on the board other than game two of the Braves/Mets double-dip which features one Jacob deGrom on the hill.
Ohtani has been in the spotlight this season for his hitting more often than his pitching, but he's having himself quite a year as a pitcher, too. With 95 strikeouts in only 73 innings pitched, he's demonstrating an elite ability to miss bats. What might be even more impressive is that he's carrying a 1.16 WHIP even though he's walking way too many guys. On nights when he has good control, he's going to pile up strikeouts and shut down offenses.
This Rockies offense is certainly not a good one and anytime they are on the road they are a team to target with pitchers as their production falls off considerably. Charlie Blackmon has shown some signs of life and Trevor Story is a legit hitter (who might be on his way to a contender?) but the rest of the lineup is pretty weak. I expect Ohtani to handle this team at home.
On the other side of this matchup, we have an underrated ace in German Marquez. Pitching half your games in Coors can be tough on guys, but Marquez has been a reliable arm for several years now and has emerged as a high-level pitcher. This Angels offense has been scrappy, but don't have many threats from the left side of the plate other than Ohtani and Jared Walsh - and Ohtani hasn't hit as well in games where he's also pitching (you can fact check that - I didn't, but I'm pretty sure it's true).
Rather than go under eight for the full game, I'm going under four runs for the first five. I don't trust either bullpen, especially the Rockies pen which has been a travesty this year.
Pick: First Five Innings UNDER 4 runs (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great MLB analysis and more DFS/sportsbetting content later in the week!
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