RADIO
We have a slight change in our lineup as I'll now be taking on the Friday and Saturday picks this season. Hopefully going back-to-back days will give us a bit more consistency. Yesterday, the weather got the better of us with two postponements from our two game picks. The good news is our prop bet hit with ease so we still had a nice profitable day.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) will be carrying the free picks on during the week throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-0.5 U)
- O/U Record: 1-5 (-4.13 U)
- Runline Record: 1-3 (-0.92 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 1-4 (-2.13 U)
- Prop Record: 10-4 (+5.92 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 11-15 (-1.76 U)
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox - Game 1
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: BAL +165, CWS -180
BAL: Matt Harvey | CWS: Dallas Keuchel
The good news for us is game one of the doubleheader to make up for yesterday's postponement still sees Harvey versus Keuchel, so the reasoning for our pick yesterday remains the same today. The better news is due to this being a seven-inning game, the over/under line for the first five innings has changed in our favor.
The reason we backed the Orioles to tag Jon Lester for a few runs last weekend was due to their proficiency against left-handed pitching (LHP). That remains true here. They rank eighth against LHP in SLG (.437), eighth in wOBA (.330) and sixth in wRC+ (112). The Orioles are on a miserable run in May with Thursday's loss to the White Sox being their tenth straight defeat. Since taking the series against the Mariners 2-1 in early May, they've played six series and have gone 0-6 in them. They won just two of those 18 games and already trail this series 1-0 following Thursday's 5-1 loss.
In May, the Orioles have scored 100 runs in 24 games (4.17 runs per game). That ranks as 20th in MLB but it's their pitching that has let them down with a league-high 6.09 ERA this month. Harvey has been a contributing factor in that with an 8.85 ERA in May (five starts) and he's allowed 18 earned runs in his last three starts (10.2 IP).
The White Sox are sending veteran Keuchel to the mound and he sports a 4.28 ERA on the year. His expected ERA (xERA) is 5.84 and his strikeout rate (K%) of 12.3% is low even for him (career 18.7% K%). Keuchel has allowed three or more runs in six of his ten starts. Their offense has struggled a bit of late with just 23 runs scored in their last seven games which includes two shutouts. They do still rank fifth overall in runs scored (245) and against RHP, they rank 10th in OPS (.723), eighth in wOBA (.321) and sixth in wRC+ (108).
The game will be a dry one today and the winds are blowing out to right field at around 18MPH.
Pick: 1st 5 innings - over 3.5 runs (-122) 2 Units
Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates - Game 2
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: COL +120, PIT -130
COL: Austin Gomber | PIT: Mitch Keller
Unlike the White Sox versus Orioles, the starting pitchers for the Rockies at Pirates have altered. Jon Gray will face off against JT Brubaker in game one while Austin Gomber will now be up against Mitch Keller in game 2. But once again, the odds are playing in our favor as the Rockies are no longer favorites to win when facing Keller. Going from Gray to Gomber on the mound isn't as big of a drop as you might expect.
Gomber does have a 4.56 ERA on the year (10 starts), but that is largely due to one terrible outing against the Giants in which he gave up nine earned runs in just 1.2 IP. Outside of that one outing, Gomber has had six quality starts. Of the three outings which didn't qualify as quality starts, one was opening day in which he went just 3.0 IP (one earned run), he gave up five earned runs in five innings against a very good Cardinals team and had 5.1 IP against the Padres without allowing an earned run.
After walking 19 batters in April (23.0 IP), he's only allowed three free passes in May (30.1 IP). Getting through five or six innings consistently will hopefully protect the Rockies bullpen which has the second-worst ERA (5.50) in MLB this year. On the road, the bullpen ERA is 4.57 so they benefit significantly when pitching away out of Colorado.
While the Rockies have been bad this year and come into this series with a 19-32 record, they've had a tough schedule. Against teams with a .500 record or better, they're 9-25 and against teams with a losing record, they actually have a winning record of 10-7. The issue for them has been road games as they have a 3-20 record away from Coors Field. Their road games have predominantly been against the better teams in the NL though. A total of 15 of the 23 games have been at the Giants, Dodgers, Cardinals and Padres who have a combined 121-80 record.
The Pirates enter this game on the six-game losing streak and have a similarly poor record (18-31) to the Rockies. The difference is they have an 11-20 record against .500 or better teams and are 7-11 against teams with a losing record. If you haven't seen it yet, the Javier Baez play from Thursday perfectly encapsulates how their season is going and their 161 runs scored this year is the fewest in MLB.
Mitch Keller hasn't fulfilled his promise this year and enters this game with a 7.41 ERA from nine starts. He hasn't gone deeper than 5.2 IP, and that came against the Padres at the start of May where he didn't give up a run. In his three starts since then, Keller has allowed 14 earned runs in 13.1 IP. The Pirates will likely need to lean on a bullpen that has a collective 3.94 ERA (15th best) this year.
The offensive numbers stack up much more favorably for the Rockies too. They're 18th in ISO (.151), 20th in wOBA (.301) and 16th in SLG (.389). The Pirates are 30th in ISO (.117), 29th in wOBA (.286) and 29th in SLG (.344).
The early day forecast shows some light rain throughout the day so there's the potential for both games to be wet. There's always the possibility that they get game one in and then game two gets postponed and played as a doubleheader tomorrow instead so monitor the forecasts.
Pick: Moneyline - Colorado Rockies (+120) 1 Unit
Prop Bets
Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics
In the month of May, the Angels have the highest K% (27.5%) against RHP in MLB. Against LHP in May, the Angels have a 21.4% K% which is the sixth-lowest in MLB. Yet, on Friday night, Sean Manaea (a leftie) struck out eight Angels batters in 6.2 IP.
Frankie Montas has 31 strikeouts in 28.1 IP this year and since his first start of the season, he's got through five innings in eight of nine starts and has got through six innings on six occasions. He tallied 11 strikeouts last time out, albeit against the Mariners. But in two of his previous three starts before that, he struck out six against the Astros and six against the Rays. The Astros have a 17.2% K% against RHP in May (lowest in MLB) and the Rays have a 25.3% K% (20th in MLB).
Pick: Montas over 5.5 K (-105) 1 Unit
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