RADIO
Yesterday saw us bag two from four. Of the match picks, the Rays and Orioles hit the over in the first five innings comfortably. The Reds bats went wild to deny us the under with that pick. Then from the props, Merrill Kelly hit the over without any drama but sadly, Tarik Skubal came up on strikeout short from a nice profitable day and to keep our prop bet streak alive. But today is a new day and we have a full slate including a double-header.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Brua Tagovailoaić (@LucidMediaDFS) will be giving out the free picks during the week throughout the season, with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 0-2 (-1.5 U)
- O/U Record: 2-5 (-3.23 U)
- Runline Record: 1-4 (-1.42 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 3-7 (-2.09 U)
- Prop Record: 12-5 (+6.67 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 16-21 (-1.57 U)
Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: LAA -108, ARI -102
LAA: Alex Cobb | ARI: Caleb Smith
The Diamondbacks enter this weekend with the worst record in MLB (20-44), with just one win in their last ten games after extending their losing streak to eight games last night. In June, they have managed to score just 29 runs in nine games (3.22 per game) and have been shut out twice this week.
The win last night means the Angels are now on a four-game winning streak and have a 7-3 record over their last ten games. They've been riding a hot offense with 58 runs scored in June (tied most in MLB) at an average of 6.44 per game. Shohei Ohtani pitched, hit and played the outfield last night so might not play tonight but they've still managed to produce enough runs recently to negate that loss.
Cobb has been having a solid season with a 4.24 ERA but his 3.30 xERA, 2.65 xFIP and 3.06 SIERA suggest he should be having a great season. Kurt Suzuki started last night's game and he's been significantly worse than Max Stassi (who should be starting tonight) in pitch framing and has worse defensive catching numbers. Stassi starting should be a big help to Cobb.
Smith has been one of the few bright spots for the Diamondbacks this year with a 3.14 ERA but that's not supported by his underlying numbers as he has a 4.78 xERA, 4.58 xFIP and 3.95 SIERA. This will be his third straight start after spending most of the year in the bullpen and he's been solid, going five innings in both and giving up just three earned runs.
Neither teams' bullpen has been good this year with Arizona's 4.56 ERA ranking 23rd overall and the Angels 4.77 ERA ranking 26th. With pretty equal pitching and the Angels offense being significantly better than the Diamondbacks recently, the edge is with the Angels despite the odds being extremely close.
Pick: Moneyline - Los Angeles Angels (-108) 1 Unit
Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: SEA +113, CLE -123
SEA: Yusei Kikuchi | CLE: Triston McKenzie
The Mariners were shut out again last night, the second time in June and the eighth time this year (which includes being no-hit twice). Their 251 runs scored this year ranks them 22nd in MLB, although that's one more run and one place higher than their opponents today. June hasn't been any kinder to the Mariners with Seattle ranking tied-18th in runs scored (43 in 10 games). Cleveland has scored 41 runs in just seven games (5.86 per game) but has had a soft schedule so far this month.
Kikuchi has had a good 2021 with a 3.92 ERA and over his last seven starts, has a 2.93 ERA. Given he also has a 3.39 xFIP and 3.66 SIERA, Kikuchi should be able to continue his recent run of form and lower that ERA further. The Seattle bullpen has been decent in 2021 with a 4.30 ERA ranking them 13th best in MLB and they should have Kendell Graveman available again after his activation from the Covid list.
McKenzie has had his struggles this year, as evidenced by his 6.26 ERA. The underlying numbers are a bit better with a 4.93 xFIP and 4.85 SIERA. The 19.1% BB% has been his biggest issue and after allowing five earned runs in 5.1 IP last time out, he was optioned to Triple-A. He made one start there, throwing 5.1 IP and not allowing a run (two walks). The two walks show some continued improvement with his control as the previous two MLB appearances for McKenzie saw him walk three or fewer batters, something he'd only managed twice in his previous eight appearances.
The Indians offense has been solid but now faces a pitcher in form while the Mariners offense has been poor and faces a very hot or cold pitcher. Neither team fills me with much confidence they can put up a lot of runs and even if they do, their opponent likely won't match them so I'll take the under on what appears to be a high line.
Pick: Over/Under - Under 9.5 (-120) 1 Unit
Prop Bets
Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds
Wade Miley's 21.1% K% doesn't jump off the page but over his last five starts, he's had a 24.4% K% which makes him much more appealing today. He faced the Rockies in Coors Field last month and only lasted three innings (after giving up eight runs), but still managed to strike out five batters. Of those last five games, Miley has tallied 29 strikeouts in 27.2 IP and has at least five in four of those starts.
The Rockies dreadful road record went to 5-25 last night. At home, they have a 20.6% K% which is third-best in MLB. On the road, that K% is 27.2% which is third-worst in MLB. Away from Colorado against LHP, their 27.5% K% is fourth-worst in MLB. All signs point to Miley hitting the over here.
Pick: Miley over 4.5 Ks (-105) 1 Unit
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