RADIO
Another profitable day yesterday, but also another day of being on the cusp of a sweep. The Giants and Phillies hit the over in the first five innings comfortably, with all eight runs coming before the sixth inning. The Mets and Nationals easily his the under, with Washington taking the win 1-0. Unfortunately, our prop bet let us down. Needing Jameson Taillon to record under 4.5 Ks, he had three strikeouts through four innings. He came out for the fifth inning, went strikeout, walk, strikeout and then left the game. Still, we made profit and we go again today.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Brua Tagovailoaić (@LucidMediaDFS) will be giving out the free picks during the week throughout the season, with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-0.57 U)
- O/U Record: 4-5 (-1.49 U)
- Runline Record: 1-4 (-1.42 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 4-7 (-1.26 U)
- Prop Record: 12-7 (+4.67 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 20-23 (-0.07 U)
Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: MIN +120, TEX -130
MIN: Randy Dobnak | TEX: Kolby Allard
As great as Randy Dobnak's personal story is, he's been brutal on the mound this year. In 12 appearances (four starts), he has an 8.38 ERA. From his four starts, Dobnak has a 6.85 ERA (22.1 IP) and that's after throwing six shutout innings in his first start. He last pitched on Sunday and gave up six earned runs in just two innings of relief. It's unclear how far into the game he can go but in his four starts, Dobnak did get through five innings on three occasions and 4.2 IP in his other outing.
For the Rangers, Allard has had a similar usage with three of his 13 appearances being starts after beginning the year in the bullpen. His last three outings have all been starts and have totaled 14.0 IP while allowing just four runs (2.57 ERA). His ERA as a reliever was 3.15 so he's been having a solid season regardless of his role.
Despite Allard's success, the Twins offense should score runs as they have been one of the better offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching (LHP). They rank third in SLG (.486), first in ISO (.223) and seventh in wRC+ (118) since May 01st. As good as Allard has been as a starter, he has faced the Twins in relief earlier this year and allowed three earned runs 2.1 IP.
Only the Orioles have a worse record in the American League than these two teams and neither comes into this game in good form. The Twins took game one of the series on Friday night 7-5 (10 innings) to make it back-to-back wins and now have a 4-6 record over their last ten games. For the Rangers, it was their fourth straight defeat and eighth in their last ten games.
I like the over for the game (currently at -110 for over nine) due to both teams' struggling bullpens as well. The Twins relievers have a 5.15 ERA since May 01st (seventh-worst) and the Rangers have a 4.84 ERA in that time (10th worse). The Twins proficiency against LHP and Dobnak's struggles lead me to take the over for the first five innings.
Pick: 1st 5 innings over/under - Over 4.5 (-127) 1 Unit
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CWS +105, HOU -125
CWS: Lance Lynn | HOU: Framber Valdez
I was surprised to see the over set at eight for this game given the starting pitchers. Granted, the two offenses are good (the Astros are the highest-scoring offense in baseball with 384 runs), but the starting pitching promises to make this a compelling matchup. Game two of the series last night saw the Astros record a 2-1 walk-off victory while they comprehensively won game one on Thursday, 10-2.
The White Sox will be hoping Lynn continues his Cy Young caliber season. He's currently sporting a 1.51 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Last time out against the Rays, Lynn allowed three earned runs for just the second time all season but still recorded his seventh quality start from 12 outings. Of his five 'non-quality starts', Lynn actually only allowed an earned run in one of them with the other four all being shutouts of five innings or less.
Valdez has been excellent for the Astros. He's made four starts after missing the start of the season through injury and has a 1.42 ERA. Impressively, he's completed seven innings in each of his last three starts and hasn't allowed more than one earned run in any outing.
In addition to the starting pitchers, both bullpens have been good this year too. The White Sox 3.62 bullpen ERA is seventh best while the Astros lag a bit behind with a 4.16 ERA, which is 18th best.
As mentioned, the Astros offense has been great and since May 01st, they rank fifth in ISO (.191), first in wOBA (.356) and first in wRC+ (132). In that time, the White Sox are 17th in ISO (.155), 11th in wOBA (.323) and eighth in wRC+ (107).
Pick: Over/Under - Under 8 (-110) 1 Unit
Prop Bets
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants
Since May 01st, the Phillies have the fifth-highest strikeout rate (K%) against LHP at 26.6%. On Wednesday, Clayton Kershaw managed to strike out nine in 6.0 IP and I'm not comparing Alex Wood to Kershaw, but it's been a continuing trend of the Phillies against LHP. Kershaw does have a better K% this year (29.3%) compared to Wood (24.0%), but the over-line is also much more generous towards Wood today. On Tuesday, Julio Urias struck out five Phillies in just 5.2 IP and he has a 26.9% K% this year.
This will be Wood's 12th start of the year and in his previous 11, he's managed to strike out six or more in seven of them. He's achieved that in five of his last seven starts and after a rough three-game stretch in which Wood allowed 15 earned runs in 15.0 IP, he returned to form last time out against the Diamondbacks, giving up two earned runs in 6.0 IP.
Pick: Alex Wood over 5.5 Ks (+115) 1 Unit
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