RADIO
The less said about yesterday, the better. Zac Gallen came up one strikeout short after lasting just four innings. Yusei Kikuchi then had a career-high 12 strikeouts in just six innings. The Tigers outhit the Royals eight to five but still lost 5-3 and the White Sox loaded the bases in the second inning, failed to score but still kept it a one-run game until a bullpen implosion in the seventh ended their chances. A rough way to start the weekend, but we go again today.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 4-8 (-3.77 U)
- O/U Record: 7-9-1 (-1.80 U)
- Runline Record: 1-4 (-2.42 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 5-13 (-5.62 U)
- Prop Record: 17-13 (+4.23 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 34-46-1 (-9.38 U)
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 10 | Moneyline: ATL +105, PHI -115
ATL: Drew Smyly | PHI: Vince Velasquez
The series is tied 1-1 after the Phillies won last night 5-1 following the Braves 7-2 win on Thursday. Both teams look to keep close to the first placed Mets and the weekend games could be a deciding factor in which club has the best chance to challenge for the NL East.
The Phillies will look for Velasquez to continue his bounceback following a rough end to the first half of the season. After allowing 13 earned runs in two starts (8.1 IP) against the Red Sox and Padres, he pitched five shutout innings against the Marlins last Saturday. He has faced the Braves once this year on May 08th, where he allowed just one run over 5.1 IP. His ERA is an unsightly 5.00 but it was a much more respectable 4.22 prior to those aforementioned bad starts and his home ERA is 4.04 (road ERA is 6.17).
The Braves will be hoping Smyly can give them a quality start, something he's only achieved once in his last nine outings. He had four quality starts in his first seven outings to start the year but does have a 3.02 ERA since June 01st. He's faced the Phillies twice this year, allowing seven earned runs on 9.1 IP.
The Phillies offense has been good in July, with a 113 wRC+ (tied-seventh), .205 ISO (fifth) and .343 wOBA (sixth). They've also been faring well against left-handed pitching (LHP) with a 119 wRC+ (fifth), .176 ISO (tied-11th) and .353 wOBA (fifth) since June 01st.
The Braves offense hasn't been as good and continues to be with Ronald Acuna Jr. who is out for the remainder of the year. They have a 95 wRC+ (tied-seventh), .155 ISO (21st) and .315 wOBA (17th) in July and against RHP since June 01st, have a 98 wRC+ (19th), .165 ISO (21st) and .320 wOBA (tied-14th).
If it comes down to the bullpens, both have been adequate since June 01st with the Phillies relievers putting up a 4.49 ERA (15th) and the Braves have a 4.34 ERA (12th).
I give the edge to the Phillies whose offense has been better against lefties than the Braves have been against righties. I don't think it'll be a high-scoring affair and while I can see either team winning by a few runs, I don't see many reasons to think both teams will put up a lot of runs.
Pick: Moneyline - Philadelphia Phillies (-115) 0.5 Units
Pick: First 5 innings - Philadelphia Phillies (-115) 0.5 Units
Pick: Total runs over/under - Under 10 (-120) 1 Unit
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: COL +220, LAD -250
COL: Kyle Freeland | LAD: Tony Gonsolin
The Dodgers dropped game one of the series 9-6 to make it three straight losses. The Dodgers bullpen couldn't hold on to a two-run lead, succumbing to the Rockies in 10-innings during a wild finish last night. The Rockies scored two runs in the eighth to tie the game, took the lead in the ninth before the Dodgers tied it. Then the Rockies put up three runs in the tenth without a reply to seal the win.
The Rockies will look for Freeland to continue his good recent run, with a 2.25 ERA over his last five starts (28.0 IP). That's considerably better than the 9.58 ERA he put up in his first five starts. Unusually for a Colorado pitcher, Freeland's home ERA (4.56) is better than his road ERA (6.26). His last start was against the Dodgers last Saturday in which he allowed three earned runs in 6.0 IP.
Gonsolin will be making his eighth start of the season (one relief appearance), and after allowing no more than one run in his first seven appearances (six earned runs over 25.1 IP), he gave up three earned runs in 3.1 IP on Monday against the Giants. Gonsolin's season-high is 83 pitches so it's unlikely he'll be able to go more than five innings and the Dodgers will need to rely on their bullpen that has a 6.54 ERA since the All-Star Break (fifth-worst). The Rockies bullpen has a 6.14 ERA in that time which is sixth-worst so aren't doing much better.
Offensively, the Dodgers have had no such issues with a 123 wRC+ (third), .214 ISO (second) and .350 wOBA (fourth) since June 01st. The Rockies offense has struggled in the same period with a 77 wRC+ (29th), .146 ISO (23rd) and .309 wOBA (21st). The Rockies have been a bit better in July, scoring 69 runs (nice) in 16 games (4.31 runs per game) and 31 runs in their six games since the All-Star Break (5.17 runs per game).
Neither pitcher fills me with much confidence right now and while I think they could both have solid outings, both bullpens have been struggling over the last week and both teams should be able to score some runs late in the game too.
Pick: Total runs over/under - Over 8.5 (-115) 1 Unit
Prop Bet
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
This will be the fourth time Kyle Gibson has faced the Astros this year. In his prior three starts, he's totaled 19.0 IP but has just ten strikeouts and only managed to reach four Ks once. His last two starts both came against the Tigers and saw his ERA leap from 1.98 to 2.86 but allowed 13 earned runs over 11.1 IP.
The strikeout line is low but given Gibson's previous starts against the Astros, his last two outings being bad and the Astros having the sixth-best K% against RHP since June 01st (21.4%), we'll speculate that he fails to hit the over again here.
Pick: Gibson under 3.5 Ks (+125) 1 Unit
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
While Kikuchi rightly took the headlines for last night's performance, what was lost is Frankie Montas striking out 10 batters in 6.0 IP himself. That shouldn't come as a huge surprise given the Mariners have a 27.1% K% against RHP since June 01st.
Chris Bassitt will get the chance to rack up some Ks himself and in his only other start against the Mariners this year (June 01st), he struck out six in just four innings. After something of a sluggish start to the year where he struck out just 11 in 16.1 IP (three starts), he's struck out six or more in 13 of his last 17 starts and has topped seven Ks in 10 of them.
Pick: Bassitt over 6.5 Ks (+125) 1 Unit
I'll be placing 0.5 units on the two-game parlay for the prop picks at +406 given the plus odds.
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