RADIO
Happy Fathers' Day to all of you dads out there! I happen to be one as I have two beautiful girls (8 and 2 years old) and I can tell you that being a dad is the hardest job I've ever had but also the most rewarding. I hope you have a chance to spend some time with some family and friends today and maybe watch some major league baseball. If you are going to be watching, you might as well have a little action on some games, right?
If you follow me for DFS coverage, don't worry - I bet on baseball just about every day, too! I will be doing these picks for you every Sunday going forward this Summer. Just to let you know, I mainly bet on FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone is able to bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering, to go along with our awesome premium betting tools. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Jamie Steed (@Baseball_Jimbo) will be carrying the free picks on during the week throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight and PrizePicks DFS prop picks.
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Thunder Dan's 2021 MLB Betting Picks
Last Week: 0-2
Season to Date: 7-4
I had my first losing Sunday last week as the game in Coors went under by one run and Shane Bieber was not his usual self against the Mariners. But we are back at it today with some more picks for you to wager on - and I'll be wagering on them with you!
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 10 | Moneyline: TOR -210
TOR: Hyun Jin Ryu | BAL: Matt Harvey
Vegas expects some offense in this game as the total is set at ten runs, but I am not sure that's enough. These teams combined for 17 runs yesterday after "only" going for eight combined runs on Friday night in the series opener. Any time Matt Harvey is pitching, you have considering targeting the opposing offense in DFS and betting and there's not been a better offense in the majors than the Blue Jays over the last several weeks. Not only are Semien, Bichette, and Guerrero Jr. raking, but even guys like Biggio and Gurriel Jr. have come on of late.
I think the Jays score a bunch of runs and win, but there's too much juice on the moneyline for me, and I am even leery of betting the Blue Jays run line with how hittable Ryu has been lately. Baltimore can hit LHP well and this ballpark in Camden is not very helpful to pitchers. Let's just bet on the offenses here! If you just like the Jays, then hit their team total at 5.5, but if you think the Orioles get in on the scoring today, too, then I think the game total is firmly in play here as well. I will be betting both outcomes in separate bets.
Pick: Toronto Team Total - Over 5.5 runs (-127 DraftKings Sportsbook), Over 10 total runs (-109 DraftKings Sportsbook)
If you love betting on player props, consider signing up for a premium DFS or betting package at RotoBaller and get access to all of the customized strikeout projections that I post daily in our premium slack chat!
#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.
Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
Tyler Anderson o/5.5 ✅
Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
Trevor Bauer o/8.5 ✅@RotoBaller @RotoBallerMLB peeps in our premium slack get access to customized strikeout projections daily! pic.twitter.com/ROWW11LTah— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) May 22, 2021
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYM -122
NYM: Taijuan Walker | WAS: Patrick Corbin
One of the first things I look at with these games is the pitching matchups. Taijuan Walker is having an excellent year for the Mets with a 2.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He has been in great recent form, too, as he's coming off wins against Baltimore and Chicago in which he struck out 9 and 12 batters, respectively. He's simply a much better pitcher than Patrick Corbin, who despite his best outing of the season against the Pirates last week is still carrying a 5.60 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.
Walker shut these Nats down earlier this year, holding them scoreless over seven innings. Meanwhile, Corbin allowed four runs on seven hits against the Mets in his first start against them. While the Mets offense isn't anything special, I do think they'll be able to put some runs on the board as Corbin has been walking too many people and giving up too many homers this season. Pete Alonso homered off Corbin in that first matchup and destroys left-handed sinker pitchers - so if you want a fun prop bet toss a few bucks on the Polar Bear to go yard.
This should be a bigger spread in my opinion and I am going to take the value here with the Mets. I might end up taking their run line at plus odds, too, if I am feeling frisky but for now let's just keep the moneyline as the official pick.
Pick: New York Mets ML (-122) DraftKings Sportsbook
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