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Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another Sunday edition of our MLB betting picks! After a hot start to my season, the last few Sundays have humbled me quite a bit and today I am laser-focused on getting back in the win column!
If you follow me for DFS coverage, don't worry - I bet on baseball just about every day, too! Just to let you know, I mainly bet on FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone is able to bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
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Thunder Dan's 2021 MLB Betting Picks
Last Week: 0-2
Season to Date: 10-13
Somehow the Orioles and Royals cooled off last Sunday and went under the total, while the Braves' bullpen blew our chance at winning that money line bet. Today, I am locking in on two pitching matchups that are more lopsided that than the book thinks.
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: HOU -235
TEX: Taylor Hearn| HOU: Zack Greinke
These are two different teams heading in different directions. The Astros are legit contenders in the AL this season while the Rangers are likely sellers at the trade deadline and have been rumored to be shopping Joey Gallo and a few other assets.
It can be a trap at times to look at the first two games of the weekend series as Sunday seems to be the day for unlikely outcomes, but Houston has dominated Texas in every way so far on Friday and Saturday, outscoring them 11-4 in their first two wins. Zack Greinke is on the mound and he's already beaten this Ranger team twice this season. Meanwhile, Texas is turning to Taylor Hearn to start as they're running out of healthy arms. Hearn has pitched mainly as a reliever and isn't likely to last long. The Astros hit lefties hard and the Texas bullpen will be asked to handle a lot of this game, which should favor Houston's offense in a big way.
Houston has covered their run line at home 51% of the time and is in good form here with their offense finally getting healthier and a veteran reliable arm on the hill. I am rolling with the 'Stros here to handle Texas and cover rather than mess around with their moneyline which has so much juice on it.
Pick: Astros -1.5 (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
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#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.
Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
Tyler Anderson o/5.5 ✅
Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
Trevor Bauer o/8.5 ✅@RotoBaller @RotoBallerMLB peeps in our premium slack get access to customized strikeout projections daily! pic.twitter.com/ROWW11LTah— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) May 22, 2021
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
O/U: 10| Moneyline: DET -115
DET: Tarik Skubal | KCR: Daniel Lynch
Despite dropping the first two games of this series, the Tigers are still 7-2 since the All-Star break and only six games under .500 on the season - a full four games ahead of the fourth-place Royals they face today. Detroit's hitting has improved drastically since earlier in the year when they were historically bad, striking out over 30% of the time and getting picked on by DFS players nearly every slate. But another big improvement has been their pitching, as youngsters Skubal, Manning, and Mize have all given them some quality innings and kept them in games.
While Mize has been solid, Skubal is the ace of this staff make no mistake about it. After a rough start to the season, he's really turned it on and flashed major strikeout upside while doing it. Last month he struck out seven Royals in a victory over them while allowing only three runs. If he can pitch around Salvador Perez, I like his chances at keeping these KC bats at bay.
Meanwhile, the Tigers' offense will face off against a rookie who looked completely overmatched in his first few MLB starts - Daniel Lynch. He made three starts and posted an ERA over 15 as he failed to get anyone out and was hit hard. He's not being called back up because he's ready now as he's still struggled in AAA, it's just a matter of the Royals having no one else and I guess they figure he can take his lumps in the majors just as easily as at AAA.
I like the Tigers to win here. They haven't been favored often this year, but are 7-5 when they are. Even crazier they haven't been road favorites AT ALL this season, so we are dealing with a unique scenario all the way at the end of July - pretty crazy. If you are feeling really frisky, you. can get their run line at great odds, but I'll just stick with the money line for now.
Pick: Detroit ML (-115) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great MLB analysis during the break and more DFS and betting content later in the week!
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