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Happy Independence Day and thanks for checking out my MLB betting picks article here at RotoBaller! We have a full slate of MLB action on tap today and hopefully some better weather as we've seen too many rain delays and postponements lately. I usually play pretty light in DFS on Sunday and focus more on betting - especially since that's the focus of my research for this article every week!
If you follow me for DFS coverage, don't worry - I bet on baseball just about every day, too! Just to let you know, I mainly bet on FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone is able to bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
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Thunder Dan's 2021 MLB Betting Picks
Last Week: 1-1
Season to Date: 9-6
I totally underestimated Kyle Muller last week as he shut down the Reds, but don't worry - I changed my tune on him quickly and used him in DFS yesterday and won some money. The Angels blew Sandoval's lead but came storming back late to win and get us an underdog ML win, which was great to see.
Today's card is loaded with favorites I feel good about winning, but a lot of juice on those moneylines is causing me to look at some run lines and other angles. I certainly don't mind parlaying some of these moneylines (Milwaukee, Toronto, Houston, L.A. Angels, Chicago White Sox).
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: TOR -162
TBR: Ryan Yarbrough| TOR: Robbie Ray
Well this first pick has a lot in common with our winning pick last week in that I want to attack Tampa with a good left-handed pitcher and it just happens that their starting pitcher is Ryan Yarbrough. While Yarbs pitched pretty well last week and his bullpen let him down, he has a much MUCH tougher matchup here against one of the best offenses in baseball.
Let's start with Robbie Ray, though. He's really been impressive this year as Toronto's pitching staff has helped him to cure his wildness and improve his GB/FB ratio. He will still give up some home runs, but he's striking guys out an elite rate and churning out quality starts (and wins) as he's now pitching deeper into games as a result of the reduced walks.
Tampa continues to struggle against LHP and Ray already pitched well against twice earlier in the year, compiling 16 strikeouts over 13 innings and allowing only four earned runs. When you pair the powerful arm of Ray with the big bats in this lineup, I like the chances of Toronto winning this one handily and they've covered the spread in the first two games of this series already. Let's hit this run line and plus odds today.
Pick: Toronto -1.5 (+120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
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#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.
Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
Tyler Anderson o/5.5 ✅
Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
Trevor Bauer o/8.5 ✅@RotoBaller @RotoBallerMLB peeps in our premium slack get access to customized strikeout projections daily! pic.twitter.com/ROWW11LTah— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) May 22, 2021
Houston Astros @ Cleveland Indians
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: HOU -159
HOU: Zack Greinke | CLE: Cal Quantrill
Here's another big favorite that I like today. The Astros are looking to sweep the Indians in a four-game set after getting swept themselves by Baltimore last week. This pitching matchup is a lot more lopsided than the odds imply as Houston gets to roll out a study veteran in Greinke and the Indians continue to have to rely on rookies and retreads (Quantrill being the latter).
Houston managed to win 3-2 last night even with their "B-team" lineup as they continue to miss key starters in their lineup. The backups like Abraham Toro, Chas McCormick have filled in admirably but they hope to have Kyle Tucker and Michael Brantley in the lineup today (still no Bregman or Alvarez).
The Indians offense has been abysmal of late and could be without Jose Ramirez again. They did get Franmil Reyes back but they are still a below-average group overall.
If you are a little more risk averse hit the ML, but I am going to go with the run line here again to try to boost my odds a bit. I think Houston wins with some separation today.
Pick: Houston -1.5 (-106) DraftKings Sportsbook
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIL -182
MIL: Freddy Peralta| TBR: Tyler Anderson
How ridiculously hot are the Brewers right now? They have won 11 straight and seem poised to finish off my lowly Buccos in a four-game sweep today. They have one of their big three aces on the hill with Peralta and all the Pirates can muster to match him is Tyler Anderson, gulp.
The money line is way too juiced up for me here and I have already given you two run lines in the first two picks. So let's look at a few other angles. The Milwaukee offense has been the biggest part of their breakout, as their pitching has been good all season long. They've hung 25 runs on the Pirates so far already in this series and are averaging 7.6 runs per game during their win streak. Anderson has been a decent arm so far this season, but the Brewers have done some good work against the Pirates pen, too.
Peralta has been lights out this year and his main weakness is the occasional home run allowed. The Pirates are last in the majors in home runs, and I like Peralta's chances of dominating this lineup, especially the first time through.
So let's roll with the Brewers team total and a little bonus bet - the Brewers to score first and win. I certainly don't mind the run line either if you wanted to go that direction.
Pick: Brewers Team Total over 4.5 runs (-115), Brewers to score first and win (-112) DraftKings Sportsbook
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