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Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another Sunday edition of our MLB betting picks! My last column here was Monday as I was filling in for a colleague and I managed to go 1-1 on my two picks. Today is the day we go undefeated, I can feel it!
If you follow me for DFS coverage, don't worry - I bet on baseball just about every day, too! Just to let you know, I mainly bet on FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone is able to bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
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Thunder Dan's 2021 MLB Betting Picks
Monday 7/26: 1-1
Season to Date: 11-14
Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: ATL -165
MIL: Brett Anderson| ATL: Charlie Morton
The Braves are looking for a sweep in this series, and they are in a pretty good position to do so having beaten the Brewers' best two starters on Friday and Saturday and now lining up their best arm, Charlie Morton against Milwaukee's worst in Brett Anderson.
I don't write up ML bets that are over the -120 threshold so let's look at few other potential alternatives here if we like the Braves, which I do.
I expect the Braves' offense to be improved against lefties the rest of the way. Yes, they suffered a crushing blow losing Acuna for the season but they went out and got Adam Duvall and now Jorge Soler to help fill that void in the outfield against lefties, and both guys have awesome raw power. Anderson is a contact-type pitcher who is going to let the ball be put in play and relies on groundballs for the majority of his outs. The problem is there are just too many big bats in this lineup to feel good about him holding Atlanta back.
Meanwhile, Morton has been Atlanta's most consistent arm, and in many of his starts, he's been dominant the first or even second time through the order, only to give up some runs the third time through in the 5th or 6th inning.
Since I don't trust Morton in the late innings or the woeful Braves bullpen, let's bet on the Braves getting out in front early and winning the first five innings. We have some decent odds here on DK at +100 for their run line and the safety of a push if they lead by only one.
Pick: Braves -1 First Five Innings (+100) DraftKings Sportsbook
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#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.
Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
Tyler Anderson o/5.5 ✅
Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
Trevor Bauer o/8.5 ✅@RotoBaller @RotoBallerMLB peeps in our premium slack get access to customized strikeout projections daily! pic.twitter.com/ROWW11LTah— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) May 22, 2021
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 10| Moneyline: DET -135
DET: Tyler Alexander | BAL: Spenser Watkins
The offenses in this series haven't held up their end of the bargain yet as the first three games have gone for totals of 8, 7, and 7 runs each. But today is the day! Both teams are turning to the last man in their rotation today with Alexander being a converted reliever (and former starter who could never stay in the rotation because he was bad) and Watkins (a youngster with some major control issues and only one good start of four so far this year).
Both bullpens are not good, with Detroit's bullpen being one of the worst in the league this season and Baltimore being in the bottom half of the league as well. Both of these offenses have the potential to do damage in the right matchups and Vegas certainly is counting on it. I am taking a leap of faith here that they do and going OVER the total of 10 runs. Let's hope we get some good lineups from each team and I wouldn't blame you for waiting until we got those lineups to make your final decision here.
Pick: OVER 10 runs (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook
As always, good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great MLB analysis during the break and more DFS and betting content later in the week!
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