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Welcome to another day of RotoBaller’s free MLB Betting Picks. Our betting team is here to bring you top notch insight, including analysis, trends, stats, and more!
A full disclaimer that I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
Back following a nice 2-0 Tuesday (For writing purposes, I hope that trend continues). We got great pitching in the Atlanta/Boston game, keeping it low-scoring early. Then, the White Sox took care of business against St. Louis and gave Jack Flaherty his first loss, as I predicted. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 for some fun banter and also extra plays on days I don’t write. Below are my plays for Thursday, May 27. Let's make some money and have fun, but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 5-4 (+.43u)
- O/U Record: 9-8-2 (+.15u)
- Runline Record: 4-5 (-.35u)
- First 5 Record: 8-4-3 (+2.63u)
- Prop Record: 2-5-1 (-2.71u)
- 2021 Total Record: 28-26-6 (+.15u)
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
O/U: 6.5 | WSH -135 CIN +125
Cincinnati: Sonny Gray; Washington: Stephen Strasburg
Since last season, Gray has been a totally different home/road pitcher. Granted they are incredibly small samples, a 4.68 ERA in 2020 and 5.14 ERA on the road this year don’t bode well for the righty. Through 14 road innings this season, his battling average against is 80 points higher on the road, while his wOBA is 60 points higher. Offensively, Cincy is missing some pieces, like Mike Moustakas and Nick Senzel but the team has hit RHP well in May, with a .253 average, .326 wOBA, and 104 wRC+. They always perform better at home, but are still averaging 4 runs per game as visitors.
Who else thinks we’re past the days of dominant Stephen Strasburg? The righty has dealt with injuries galore over the last few years, and in his first three outings this year, he’s been inconsistent. Sandwiched in between two scoreless outings is a 7-run clunker against the Cardinals. His strikeout totals are low, and his control has been troublesome (11 walks in 15.1 IP). The Nats’ lineup has been formidable against RHP as well this month, hosting a .274 average with a .339 wOBA and a 113 wRC+.
Keep in mind, these two teams have to finish a suspended game from Wednesday night earlier in the day, so this game will be seven innings. However, these pitchers just haven’t shown me reason to back them in their current spots. The offenses aren’t elite and even in a shortened game, I think these offenses are ready to go in the night cap.
Pick: Over 6.5 (+106, Fanduel) 1 Unit
Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
O/U: 8 | OAK -148 LAA +130
Los Angeles: Shohei Ohtani; Oakland: Chris Bassitt
Ohtani has been everything we’ve hoped and more, especially at the dish. Through his first 30 innings, he has just one win, but has allowed just eight runs and over his last two starts his control has improved dramatically. However, his 3.56 xFIP compared to his sub-three ERA shows he’s getting some luck his way. Offensively, we know the Angels are without Mike Trout (calf) for awhile, but they seem to be managing well, scoring 20 runs over the most recent two-game series with Texas. They’re noon or just this month against RHP, striking out at a league-high 27%, but they also have a .202 ISO with a .316 wOBA.
Bassitt has been one of the more consistent starters in all of baseball. He’s completed at least five innings in every start, and while he’s allowed two or more runs in every outing, he’s never allowed more than four in a game, which has happened twice. Just five homers allowed in 61 IP is a great number in his corner, but he doesn’t exactly have breakaway stuff, so occasional mishaps aren’t foreign to the righty. Offensively, Oakland has been one of the best against RHP this month, boasting a .332 wOBA, .222 ISO, and a 118 wRC+, all top five marks in the league for May.
Both of these arms have their special moments, but essentially they’re just pitching slightly above average right now. Add in that both bullpens have been abysmal this month, and I’m not worried about the Angels missing Trout. I like the offenses to get the best of the mound opponents here.
Pick: Over 8 (-106, Barstool Sportsbook) 1 Unit
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