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Welcome to another day of RotoBaller’s free MLB Betting Picks. Our betting team is here to bring you top notch insight, including analysis, trends, stats, and more!
A full disclaimer that I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
Another week, another chance to break away from the .500 streak we’ve been on. Last week closed on a break even in record and units, so let’s start this week on a big note! Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 for some fun banter and also extra plays on days I don’t write. Below are my MLB betting plays for Tuesday, June 15th. Let's make some money and have fun, but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 5-6 (-1.57u)
- O/U Record: 10-10-2 (-0.97u)
- Runline Record: 6-5 (+2.07u)
- First 5 Record: 9-5-3 (+2.53u)
- Prop Record: 2-6-1 (-3.71u)
- 2021 Total Record: 32-32-6 (-1.65u)
Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves
O/U: 9 | BOS -102 ATL -105
Boston: Eduardo Rodriguez; Atlanta: Tucker Davidson
Rodriguez isn’t exactly in prime form right now. He’s allowed at least three runs in each of his last six outings and he has only completed six innings once in that stretch. He’s got a 6.03 ERA thus far but a 3.48 xFIP hints he’s been getting some bad luck and is due for some positive regression soon. Offensively, Boston has been struggling on the road this year, especially against LHP. Since May 1, they’re carrying just a .281 wOBA with a 78 wRC+ when facing southpaws. The really worrisome number is the .088 ISO which is second lowest in baseball in that stretch.
Davidson is a young buck trying to get his feet wet, so naturally his first few starts have been all over the place. He’s got just 17.2 IP in this season and has a 1.53 ERA but a 4.24 xFIP with a 14/7 K/BB. Facing a Boston lineup is never fun, but him being a lefty gives him a slight advantage since, as noted, they struggle vs lefties. This Braves lineup is dangerous when facing a LHP. Since the start of May, they have a .355 wOBA and a 124 wRC+ with a .222 ISO.
I’m banking on Atlanta’s offense getting to Rodriguez one more time today. It’s tough to expect much from Davidson and Boston’s bullpen has been better than the Braves’ lately, so I’ll look for a strong F5 performance from Atlanta.
Pick: Atlanta First 5 Innings ML (-105, BetMGM) 1 Unit
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers
O/U: 7.5 | LAD -175 PHI +155
Philadelphia: Zach Eflin; Los Angeles: Julio Urias
Eflin has been brutal on the road thus far, posting a 5-plus ERA, which is three points higher than when he’s at Citizen’s Bank Park. He’s allowed 14 earned runs over his last four roads starts, and while his 28/6 K/BB is solid, he’s also allowed five homers in those efforts.
The Dodgers have been monsters yet again, especially when in their friendly confines. Since the beginning of May, the team has posted a .341 wOBA with a 124 wRC+ against RHP at home. The .202 ISO meshes well with the 9 BB% and the 23 K% to give them a well rounded approach at the plate. They average over 5.3 runs per game as the hosts this season, and with a plus matchup against a RHP that struggles on the road, they have a chance to pour it on Tuesday.
Dodgers Dodgers, and more Dodgers. This is my expectation for how Eflin’s day will play out on the bump. I’m tempted to take the runline here as well, but I’ll roll with the team total.
Pick: Los Angeles Team Total over 4.5 (-115, Fanduel) 1 Unit
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