RADIO
It's finally hump day. That means its time to get rowdy on FanDuel. My goal is simple: every RotoBaller faithful being in the money when the night is over. The first and most important step to reaching this goal is diving into this article. So let us begin.
Full disclaimer, I love me some BvP statistics. Being successful at the plate is almost all confidence, and the easiest way for a player to walk up with full confidence is previous success versus the current pitcher. Player trends mean fairly little to me. A player can snap out of the funkiest of slumps with one at bat from a pitcher he's hitting .400 in 50 AB against in his career. BvP stats are God given proof, they do not lie. I agree, of course, that anything can happen at any given at bat, but is that the mentality we want to have when our hard earned money is on the line? I know I don't. Give me the numbers!
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball MLB lineup picks for FanDuel on 5/4/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from high-priced to low-priced options and identify options who will out-perform their expectations, including sleepers and value plays on FanDuel.
DFS Lineup Stacks to Target for FanDuel
1. San Francisco Giants vs. Dan Straily- Not much explaining needed here, right? Very few pitchers will cause me to fade this offense. Dan Straily....not one of them. The Giants are third in the league in runs scored in 2016, and sit at the top in runs scored during Day games. With a 12:35 ET first pitch, this would make for a great stack for All-Day slates since the lineup will post early and FanDuel does not allow late-swaps once the first game has begun.
2. Los Angeles Angels vs. Zach Davies- The Angels have been heating up recently, scoring the eighth most runs over the last seven days. Today they face Zach Davies, and his 8.78 ERA. In 3 GS, he has only totaled 13.1 IP, and didn't even make it to the third inning his last outing at Pittsburgh where he gave up six runs. If Davies is forced out early, this also bodes very well for the Angels as Milwaukee relievers have a 5.05 ERA after the seventh inning in 2016, allowing a league worst .292 BAA. They might even be forced to bring in long-reliever Chris Capuano, who Albert Pujols has hit .525 with 5 HR over 48 PA against in his career.
3. Cleveland Indians vs. Anibal Sanchez- Pretty simple here. Sanchez owns a 6.08 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP in 2016. The last time they met, not two weeks ago, the Tribe scorched Sanchez for seven runs (six earned) in only 2.1 IP. Sign me up.
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider for FanDuel
1. Drew Smyly, TB ($8,700)- Smyly has been fantastic this season, sporting a cool 2.60 ERA and an ice cold 0.69 WHIP. He has the strikeout pitch working for him also, as he's whiffing 10.6 per 9 innings. He draws a good matchup versus the Dodgers, who have struggled of late, ranking 28th in the league in runs scored over the last week and are only hitting .228 against southpaws. He should receive decent run support with Alex Wood (4.82 ERA) on the mound for the away team, as Tampa Bay is much more effective against LHP.
2. Steven Matz, NYM ($9,000)- Here is another one that doesn't require much explanation. Atlanta is second to last in runs scored for the season, rocking an impressive .228 BA. As if things could get any worse, they also have the most strikeouts in the league against left handed pitchers. After his clunker against Miami in his first outing, Matz has been phenomenal. In his last three outings, all wins, he has allowed only two ER and struck out 21 in 19.1 IP. One of those starts came against the Bravos, and Matz struck out 8 over 6.1 innings, allowing only two ER and zero walks.
3. Stephen Strasburg, WAS ($11,100)- This one is tough for me, since I had finally conditioned my brain to avoid the Royals offense at all costs after last season. But after one month into the 2016 campaign, they have yet to return to their brilliant 2015 form. Kansas City has scored fewer runs than any other team over the last week, while hitting just .219. As for Strasburg, he has been fantastic this year (just as I predicted). He is 4-0 with a 1.88 FIP, 10.00 K/9, and only 0.25 HR/9. This is mostly due to his new favorite strikeout pitch. He has thrown the slider 14.3% in 2016. He didn't even have the pitch in his arsenal until 2014, and only threw it 1.3% in 2015 according to Pitchf/x.
DFS Infielders to Consider for FanDuel
Catcher (C)
Yan Gomes, CLE ($2,600)- Here is one of the instances I was referring to in my intro. Yan Gomes had a pretty abysmal April, and is only hitting .188 with 3 HR in 2016. BUT, in 12 career PA against Anibal Sanchez, Gomes is hitting .545 with 2 HR. When they faced off against each other on April 23, and Gomes finished 3-5 with a 2B, HR, 3 R, and 5 RBI. His ownership should be very low, making him a great GPP option.
First Base (1B)
1. Justin Smoak, TOR ($2,200)- Yet another instance of a cold player that should have a good night. Thanks to Chris Colabello's 80 game PED suspension, Smoak is receiving ample opportunities at first base for the Blue Jays. He has not taken advantage of the opportunity yet, as he's only hitting .225 with zero HR, which ensures a very low ownership percentage. However, he is hitting .267 against RHP on the year, and has hit .438 with 2 HR in 18 career PA against Colby Lewis. At his price, he could make for one of the best values of the night.
2. Chris Carter, MIL ($3,200)- The time of getting Chris Carter at a decent price is nearly over. He is playing out of his mind right now, hitting .277/.351/.651 with 7 HR, 15 R, 18 RBI on the season, and is smashing southpaws. I have come to learn that if Chris Carter has decent BvP stats against anyone, YOU USE HIM, and I would have to say that a .357/.429/.857 line with 2 HR in 16 PA versus Hector Santiago would fall under the good category.
Second Base (2B)
Derek Dietrich, MIA ($2,900)- Like Smoak, Dietrich is also seeing healthy at bats thanks to a PED suspension, this one being for Dee Gordon. But unlike Smoak, Dietrich has taken full advantage of the opportunity. He is enjoying a .375/.474/.813 line with 1 HR and 5 RBI over his last five games. To add icing to the cake, Dietrich took Robby De La Rosa deep the only other time they have faced off.
Shortstop (SS)
Aledmys Diaz, STL ($3,100)- So.... this guys hitting .403 on the season. Yes, that is correct, with 5 HR and a .727 SLG. Two of these HR have come off LHP in only 19 PA. With not-so-great LHP Adam Morgan (5.40 ERA in 1 GS, 4.48 ERA in 2015) on the bump for the Phillies, I have full confidence in another great night out of Diaz.
Third Base (3B)
Maikel Franco, PHI ($2,900)- After the first month of the season, Franco already has 5 HR and 15 RBI, and has played a key role in the Phillies surprising 15-11 start. Tonight he'll square off with Mike Leake and his 5.83 ERA. This is the same guy that recently gave up five runs to the Padres. Not to mention, Franco has four hits in six appearances against Leake.
DFS Outfielders to Consider for FanDuel
Matt Kemp, SD ($3,700)- Not much has gone right for the Padres offense this season, but Matt Kemp is the exception. Over his last seven games, he is hitting .357/.379/.750 with 2 HR, 6 R, and 8 RBI. On the season he has seven long balls and 21 RBI. Don't expect Tyler Chatwood to slow him down, especially considering Kemp is hitting .364 against him in 14 PA.
Steven Souza, TB ($2,900)- Souza has enjoyed a fairly impressive 2016 campaign. He is currently slashing .260/.313/.494 with five bombs. But much like his teammates, Souza has been much more impressive versus left handed pitching (.318 BA), and Alex Wood has shown zero signs of a chance to change that tonight.
Michael Conforto, NYM ($4,000)- Time for a bit of hypocrisy, because Conforto is on an absolute tear right now and cannot be ignored. Over his last seven games, he is hitting .414/.433/.793 with 2 HR, 8 R, and 8 RBI. All four of his HR in 2016 have come off of RHP, along with 11 doubles and a ridiculous .379 BA. But to make myself feel better, I will mention Conforto recorded two hits in his only three plate appearances against Jhoulys Chacin. BvP!
Stay rowdy, RotoBallers.
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