Hello everybody and welcome! The 2021 MLB season and alive and well and that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For MLB, Single Stat consists of pitcher strikeout props in which you determine if the pitcher in question will go over or under their projected strikeout total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. For today's article, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Single Stat pitchers and explain why a pitcher will or will not go over their projected strikeout total. I am also including a bonus hitter play that I like tonight. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Single Stat MLBP and MLB Totals
Gerrit Cole over 9.5 strikeouts - Cole will be facing the Tigers tonight who were just mowed down 12 times by Shane Bieber yesterday, so they really get a rough draw here. They are posting a K rate of 28.1% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which should be high enough for Cole to reach 10 strikeouts as it is the fifth-worst rate in MLB. This is a total Cole has reached in five starts on the season. The weather in Detroit is also supposed to be cold with winds blowing in, so great pitching weather should help his case for the over.
Casey Mize over 4.5 strikeouts - I am Going to stay in the same game with this one. As aforementioned, the weather should be solid for both pitchers in this one and Mize has gone over this total in each of his last two starts and three of his previous five. The Yankees are banged up pretty bad and are fresh off a doubleheader against the Blue Jays that took place in New York yesterday and now had to travel to Detroit for this one so they should certainly be gassed as well. They have posted a K rate of 25.3% against right-handers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked in the bottom half of baseball over that span.
Walker Buehler over 7.5 strikeout - Buehler just faced these Giants in his previous start, but only managed to strike out five of them. That being said, he recently faced the Padres in back-to-back starts and struck out just four in his first start against them and then nine in the second start. The Giants are also posting a K rate of 27.5% against right-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks sixth-worst on the league over that span. Buehler has also gone over this total in four of his previous six starts.
Anthony DeSclafani under 4.5 strikeouts - This is a bit of a riskier play and may be best used in a flex play. DeSclafani has gone under this total in three of his previous five starts, including his last start when he got absolutely obliterated by the Dodgers for 10 earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings pitched and only striking out three. The Dodgers are posting a modest K rate of 24.4% over the previous 10 days against righties, but they are also walking at a clip of 10.7%. Additionally, they are posting a wRC+ mark of 104, which is ranked eighth-best in baseball over the previous 10 days. This is a spot where I would certainly prefer to play the under and that definitely holds true when you put in DeSclafani's previous start against these Dodgers.
Carlos Santana over .5 Runs+RBIs - This is a bonus play if you want to have a little added fun aside from the usual K props. Santana has been on a tear over the previous two weeks in terms of counting stats as he has posted four home runs, 10 runs scored, and 10 RBI over that span. He will be facing Randy Dobnak in this one who has allowed four home runs and a .289 BAA to left-handed hitters across just 42 batters on the season. After Dobnak leaves, Santana will then get to take on the Twins bullpen who have posted a 4.36 ERA and allowed 19 home runs over the previous 15 days. He is in a solid spot for this one and should be able to come away with at least one run or RBI.
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